CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2000 draft class287 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYIRick DiPietroG318—3.15.6-0.26poor value
2ATLDany HeatleyF8697919.78.9+0.04fair
3MINMarian GaborikF10358158.57.3+0.07fair
4CBJRostislav KleslaD6591594.55.7-0.11fair
5NYIRaffi TorresF6352603.65.9-0.22fair
6NSHScott HartnellF12497076.95.1+0.14fair
7BOSLars JonssonD820.05.1-0.82BUST
8TBLNikita AlexeevF159370.73.3-0.52BUST
9CGYBrent KrahnG1—0.01.0-0.50poor value
10CHIMikhail YakubovF53120.23.3-0.68BUST
11CHIPavel VorobievF57250.43.3-0.63BUST
12ANAAlexei SmirnovF5260.13.3-0.71BUST
13MTLRon HainseyD11323114.71.5+0.44great value
14COLVaclav NedorostF99200.43.3-0.62BUST
15BUFArtem KriukovF000.03.3-0.77BUST
16MTLMarcel HossaF237611.13.3-0.41poor value
17EDMAlexei MikhnovF200.03.3-0.77BUST
18PITBrooks OrpikD10351943.71.5+0.35great value
19PHXKrys KolanosF149420.73.2-0.50poor value
20LAKAlex FrolovF5793975.63.2+0.24fair
21OTTAnton VolchenkovD6961333.61.5+0.34great value
22NJDDavid HaleD327291.21.5-0.08fair
23VANNathan SmithF2600.03.2-0.75BUST
24TORBrad BoyesF8225055.13.0+0.22fair
25DALSteve OttF8482883.62.9+0.09fair
26WSHBrian SutherbyF460901.72.8-0.20fair
27BOSMartin SamuelssonF1410.02.6-0.71BUST
28PHIJustin WilliamsF12647976.52.5+0.40great value
29DETNiklas KronwallD9534325.11.5+0.47great value
30STLJeff TaffeF180460.82.1-0.34poor value
31ATLIlya NikulinD000.01.5-0.61BUST
32CARTomas KurkaF1750.11.7-0.58BUST
33MINNick SchultzD10691754.71.5+0.44great value
34TBLRuslan ZainullinF000.01.4-0.58BUST
35EDMBrad WinchesterF390681.31.2+0.02fair
36NSHDaniel WidingF000.01.2-0.54BUST
37BOSAndy HilbertF3071041.61.2+0.12fair
38DETTomas KopeckyF5781742.11.2+0.22fair
39NJDTeemu LaineF000.01.2-0.54BUST
40CGYKurtis FosterD4051603.51.4+0.36great value
41SJSTero MaattaD000.01.4-0.58BUST
42ATLLibor UstrnulD000.01.3-0.57BUST
43WSHMatt PettingerF4221232.11.2+0.21fair
44ANAIlya BryzgalovG465—4.41.0+0.53STEAL
45OTTMathieu ChouinardG1—0.01.0-0.50poor value
47COLJared AulinF1740.11.2-0.50poor value
49CHIJonas NordqvistF320.01.2-0.53BUST
50COLSergei SoinF000.01.2-0.54BUST
51TORKris VernarskyF1710.01.2-0.52BUST
52PITShane EndicottF4530.11.2-0.47poor value
53PHXAlexander TatarinovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
54LAKAndreas LiljaD580873.11.3+0.33great value
55OTTAntoine VermetteF10465154.91.2+0.52STEAL
56NJDAleksander SuglobovF1810.01.2-0.52BUST
57NJDMatt DemarchiD000.01.3-0.57BUST
58FLAVladimir SapozhnikovD000.01.3-0.57BUST
59BOSIvan HumlF49180.31.2-0.37poor value
60DALDan EllisG212—1.71.0+0.18fair
61WSHJakub CuttaD800.01.3-0.56BUST
62NJDPaul MartinD8703205.61.3+0.54STEAL
63COLAgris SavielsD000.01.3-0.56BUST
64NYRFilip NovakD1700.01.2-0.53BUST
65STLDavid MorissetF400.01.1-0.52BUST
66BOSTuukka MakelaD000.01.1-0.53BUST
67NJDMaxim BirbraerF000.01.1-0.52BUST
68DALJoel LundqvistF134260.51.0-0.21fair
69CBJBen KnoppF000.01.0-0.50BUST
70TORMikael TellqvistG113—0.91.0-0.01fair
71VANThatcher BellF000.01.0-0.49poor value
72NSHMattias NilssonD000.00.8-0.46poor value
73BOSSergei ZinovjevF1010.00.9-0.46poor value
74CHIIgor RadulovF43160.30.9-0.29poor value
75STLJustin PapineauF81190.30.9-0.25poor value
76NJDMike RuppF610991.80.9+0.25great value
77FLARobert FriedF000.00.8-0.46poor value
78MTLJozef BalejF1860.10.8-0.37poor value
79MTLTyler HanchuckD000.00.8-0.43poor value
80CARRyan BaydaF179400.80.8-0.01fair
81TBLAlexandre KharitonovF71220.30.8-0.21fair
82FLASean O'ConnorF000.00.8-0.43poor value
83EDMAlexander LjubimovD000.00.7-0.43poor value
85PHXRamzi AbidF68300.40.7-0.12fair
86LAKYanick LehouxF1040.10.7-0.36poor value
87OTTJan BohacF000.00.7-0.40poor value
88COLKurt SauerD357331.60.7+0.28great value
89NSHLibor PivkoF100.00.6-0.39poor value
90TORJean-Francois RacineG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
91DALAlexei TereschenkoF000.00.6-0.38poor value
92COLSergey KlyazminF000.00.6-0.38poor value
93VANTim BranhamD000.00.7-0.41poor value
94PHIAlexander DrozdetskyF000.00.6-0.37poor value
95NYRDominic MooreF8972823.10.6+0.53STEAL
96STLAntoine BergeronD000.00.7-0.41poor value
97CARNiclas WallinD614793.00.7+0.50great value
98ANAJonas RonnqvistF3840.10.6-0.28poor value
99MINMarc CavosieF000.00.6-0.36poor value
100TORMiguel DelisleF000.00.6-0.36poor value
101NYIArto TukioD000.00.7-0.41poor value
102DETStefan LivG0—0.00.8-0.43poor value
103BOSJames Brett NowakF000.00.6-0.36poor value
104SJSJon DisalvatoreF600.00.6-0.35poor value
105NYIVladimir GorbunovF000.00.5-0.35poor value
106CHIScott BalanD000.00.7-0.41poor value
107ATLCarl MalletteF000.00.5-0.35poor value
108ATLBlake RobsonF000.00.5-0.35poor value
109MTLJohan EneqvistF000.00.5-0.35poor value
110CARJared NewmanD000.00.7-0.41poor value
111BUFGhyslain RousseauG0—0.00.6-0.37poor value
112NYRPremsyl DubenD000.00.7-0.41poor value
113EDMLou DickensonF000.00.5-0.34poor value
114MTLChristian LarriveeF000.00.5-0.34poor value
115FLAChris EadeD000.00.7-0.41poor value
116CGYLevente SzuperG0—0.00.5-0.33poor value
117CHIOlli MalmivaaraD200.00.7-0.41poor value
118LAKLubomir VisnovskyD8834959.90.7+0.79STEAL
119COLBrian FaheyD710.00.7-0.38poor value
120FLADavis ParleyG0—0.00.4-0.30poor value
121WSHRyan VanbuskirkD000.00.7-0.40poor value
122OTTDerrick ByfuglienD000.00.7-0.40poor value
123DALVadim KhomitskiD000.00.7-0.40poor value
124PITMichel OuelletF1901161.50.5+0.34great value
125NJDPhil ColeD000.00.6-0.39poor value
126TBLJohan HagglundF000.00.5-0.32poor value
127DETDmitri SemyenovF000.00.5-0.32poor value
128DETAlexander SeluyanovD000.00.6-0.39poor value
129STLTroy RiddleF000.00.5-0.31poor value
130DETAaron Van LeusenF000.00.5-0.31poor value
131NSHMatt HendricksF6071160.90.5+0.20fair
132MINMaxim SushinskyF30110.20.4-0.17fair
133CBJPetteri NummelinD139451.10.6+0.20fair
134ANAPeter PodhradskyD000.00.6-0.37poor value
135NJDMichael DantonF87140.30.4-0.06fair
136NYIDimitri UpperF000.00.4-0.30poor value
137NSHMike StuartD300.00.6-0.36poor value
138CBJScott HeffernanD000.00.6-0.36poor value
139DALRuslan BernikovF000.00.4-0.30poor value
140NYRNathan MartzF000.00.4-0.30poor value
141CGYWade DavisD000.00.6-0.35poor value
142SJSMichael PincF000.00.4-0.29poor value
143NYRBrandon SneeG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
144VANPavel DumaF000.00.4-0.29poor value
145MTLRyan GlennD000.00.5-0.35poor value
146PITDavid KociD000.00.5-0.34poor value
147ATLMatt McRaeF000.00.4-0.29poor value
148NYIKristofer OttossonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
149BUFDenis DenisovF000.00.4-0.28poor value
150CBJTyler KolarikF000.00.4-0.28poor value
151CHIAlexander BarkunovD000.00.5-0.33poor value
153ANABill CassD000.00.5-0.33poor value
154NSHMatt KoalskaF300.00.4-0.28poor value
155CGYTravis MoenF7471362.40.4+0.54STEAL
156OTTGreg ZanonD493622.50.5+0.50STEAL
157OTTGrant PotulnyF000.00.4-0.28poor value
158OTTSean ConnollyD000.00.5-0.32poor value
159COLJohn-Michael LilesD8363706.60.5+0.76STEAL
160PHXNate KiserD000.00.5-0.31poor value
161TBLPavel SedovF000.00.4-0.28poor value
162DALArtem ChernovF000.00.4-0.28poor value
163WSHIvan NepriayevF000.00.4-0.28poor value
164NJDMatus KosturG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
165LAKNathan MarstersG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
166SJSNolan SchaeferG7—0.10.3-0.18fair
167STLCraig WellerD000.00.4-0.30poor value
168ATLZdenek SmidG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
169CBJShane BenderaG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
170MINErik ReitzD4820.10.4-0.19fair
171PHIRoman CechmanekG212—2.80.3+0.60STEAL
172MTLScott SeligF000.00.4-0.27poor value
173NSHTomas HarantD000.00.4-0.29poor value
174BOSJarno KultanenD102130.50.4+0.07fair
175NYRSven HelfensteinF000.00.4-0.27poor value
176CGYJukka HentunenF3890.20.4-0.13fair
177CHIMichael AyersG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
178ATLJeff DwyerD000.00.4-0.28poor value
179TORVadim SozinovF000.00.4-0.27poor value
180ATLDarcy HordichukF542410.90.4+0.24fair
181CARJ.D. ForrestD000.00.4-0.27poor value
182MTLPetr ChvojkaD000.00.4-0.27poor value
183SJSMichal MachoF000.00.4-0.27poor value
184EDMShaun NorrieF000.00.4-0.27poor value
185PITPatrick FoleyF000.00.4-0.27poor value
186PHXBrent GauvreauF000.00.4-0.27poor value
187DETPer BackerF000.00.4-0.27poor value
188OTTJason MaleykoD000.00.3-0.26poor value
189COLChris BahenD000.00.3-0.26poor value
190FLAJosh OlsonF510.00.4-0.25poor value
191TBLAaron GionetD000.00.3-0.25poor value
192DALLadislav VlcekF000.00.4-0.27poor value
193CHIJoey MartinD000.00.3-0.25fair
194NJDDeryk EngellandD6711270.80.3+0.24fair
195PHIColin ShieldsF000.00.4-0.26poor value
196DETPaul BallantyneD000.00.3-0.24fair
197NSHZbynek IrglF000.00.4-0.26poor value
198NJDKen MagowanF000.00.4-0.26poor value
199MINBrian PassmoreF000.00.4-0.26poor value
200CBJJanne JokilaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
201LAKEvgeny FederovF000.00.3-0.26poor value
202NYIRyan CaldwellD400.00.3-0.24fair
203NSHJure PenkoG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
204BOSChris BertiF000.00.3-0.25poor value
205NYRHenrik LundqvistG887—6.00.3+0.78STEAL
206LAKTim ErikssonF000.00.3-0.25poor value
207CHICliff LoyaD000.00.3-0.24fair
208VANBrandon ReidF1360.10.3-0.18fair
209TORMarkus SeikolaD000.00.3-0.24fair
210PHIJohn EichelbergerF000.00.3-0.25fair
211EDMJoe CullenF000.00.3-0.25fair
212CARMagnus KahnbergF000.00.3-0.24fair
213BUFVasily BizyayevF000.00.3-0.24fair
214MINPeter BartosF1360.10.3-0.17fair
216PITJim AbbottF000.00.3-0.24fair
217PHXIgor SamoilovD000.00.3-0.24fair
218LAKCraig OlynickD000.00.3-0.24fair
219DALMarco TuokkoF000.00.3-0.24fair
220BUFPaul GaustadF7272313.00.3+0.63STEAL
221COLAaron MolnarG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
222TBLMarek PriechodskyD000.00.3-0.24fair
223TORLubos VelebnyD000.00.3-0.24fair
224DALAntti MiettinenF5392303.50.3+0.67STEAL
225CHIVladislav LuchkinF000.00.3-0.23fair
226TBLBrian EklundG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
227PHIGuillaume LefebvreF3960.10.3-0.11fair
228DETJimmie SvenssonF000.00.3-0.23fair
229STLBrett LutesF000.00.3-0.23fair
230ATLSamu IsosaloF000.00.3-0.22fair
231CBJPeter ZingoniF000.00.3-0.22fair
232MINLubomir SekerasD213712.00.3+0.50STEAL
233TBLAlexander PolukeyevG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
234FLAJanis SpruktsF1430.00.3-0.18fair
235CARCraig KowalskiG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
236NSHMats ChristeenD000.00.3-0.24fair
237BOSZdenek KutlakD1630.10.3-0.17fair
238NYRDan EberlyD000.00.3-0.24fair
239CGYDavid HajekD000.00.3-0.24fair
240CHIAdam BerkhoelG9—0.10.3-0.19fair
241VANNathan BarrettF000.00.3-0.21fair
242ATLEvan NielsenD000.00.3-0.24fair
243MTLJoni PuurulaG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
244ATLEric BowenF000.00.3-0.21fair
245LAKDan WelchF000.00.3-0.21fair
246SJSChad WisemanF920.00.3-0.17fair
247EDMJason PlattD000.00.3-0.24fair
248PITSteven CramptonF000.00.3-0.20fair
249PHXSami VenalainenF000.00.3-0.20fair
250LAKFlavien ConneF000.00.3-0.20fair
251DETTodd JacksonF000.00.3-0.20fair
252COLDarryl BootlandF3230.10.2-0.14fair
253FLAMathew SommerfeldF000.00.2-0.20fair
254TORAlexander ShinkarF000.00.2-0.20fair
256SJSPasi SaarinenD000.00.3-0.24fair
257NJDWarren McCutcheonF000.00.2-0.20fair
258BUFSean McMorrowD000.00.3-0.24fair
259PHIRegan KellyD000.00.3-0.24fair
260DETEvgeni BumaginF000.00.2-0.20fair
261STLReinhard DivisG28—0.10.3-0.12fair
262CHIPeter FlacheF000.00.2-0.20fair
263TBLThomas ZieglerF500.00.2-0.19fair
264NYIDimitri AltarevF000.00.2-0.20fair
265TORJean-Philippe CoteD2740.00.3-0.23fair
266COLSean KotaryF000.00.2-0.20fair
267NYITomi PettinenD2400.10.3-0.19fair
268BOSPavel KolarikD2300.00.3-0.22fair
269NYRMartin RichterD000.00.3-0.24fair
270CGYMicki DupontD2340.10.3-0.14fair
271CHIReto Von ArxF1940.10.2-0.13fair
272VANTim SmithF000.00.2-0.20fair
273PITRoman SimicekF63170.30.2+0.02fair
274EDMEvgeny MuratovF000.00.2-0.20fair
275MTLJonathan GauthierD000.00.3-0.24fair
276CARTroy FergusonF000.00.2-0.20fair
277BUFRyan CourtneyF000.00.2-0.20fair
278CBJMartin ParoulekF000.00.2-0.20fair
279BOSAndreas LindstromF000.00.2-0.20fair
280PITNick BoucherG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
281PHXPeter FabusF000.00.2-0.20fair
282LAKCarl GrahnG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
283OTTJames DemoneD000.00.3-0.24fair
284NSHMartin HohenerD000.00.3-0.24fair
285COLBlake WardG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
286CBJAndrej NedorostF2850.10.2-0.10fair
287PHIMilan KopeckyF000.00.2-0.20fair
288ATLMark McRaeD000.00.3-0.24fair
289WSHBjorn NordD000.00.3-0.24fair
290ATLSimon GamacheF48130.20.2-0.03fair
291CHIArne RamholtD000.00.3-0.24fair
292CBJLouis MandevilleD000.00.3-0.24fair
293STLLauri KinosD000.00.3-0.24fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75