CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2026 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1TORGavin McKennaF850.20.6-0.23fairthru yr 1
2SJSIvar StenbergF740.20.3-0.08fairthru yr 1
3VANCaleb MalhotraF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 1
4BUFDaxon RudolphD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 1
5NYRAlberts SmitsD900.20.1+0.09fairthru yr 1
6CGYCarson CarelsD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 1
7SEAChase ReidD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
8WPGViggo BjorckF700.20.1+0.10fairthru yr 1
9SJSKeaton VerhoeffD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
10NSHWyatt CullenF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 1
11STLTynan LawrenceF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 1
12NJDAlexander CommandF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 1
13NYIMalte GustafssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
14CBJOscar HemmingF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
15ANANikita KlepovF200.00.0+0.04fairthru yr 1
16STLMaddox DagenaisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
17UTAEthan BelchetzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
18WSHOliver SuvantoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
19LAKElton HermanssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
20BUFIlia MorozovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
21SJSRyan LinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
22PITLiam RuckF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
23DETJeffrey (JP) HurlbertF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
24VANAdam NovotnyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
25OTTJonas Lagerberg HoenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
26MTLGleb PugachyovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
27PHIMaksim SokolovskiiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
28ANAMarcus NordmarkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
29VGKJuho PiiparinenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
30CGYJack HextallF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
31NSHThomas BleylD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
32OTTJaxon CoverF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
33VANBrooks RogowskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
34CHIXavier VilleneuveD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
35CHIRyan RoobroeckF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
36CGYChase HarringtonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
37NJDMatias VanhanenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
38SEACasey MutrynF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
39PITMarkus RuckF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
40FLASimas IgnataviciusF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
41VANNiklas Aaram-OlsenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
42CGYTobias TrejbalG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
43COLEgor ShilovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
44NJDNikita ShcherbakovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
45ANAJayden KurtzD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
46LAKLiam LefebvreF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
47DETVictor PlanteF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
48FLARyder CaliF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
49LAKAdam GoljerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
50ANAMathis PrestonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
51CARWilliam HakanssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
52TBLOleg KulebiakinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
53PHIBrek LiskeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
54PITTomas GalvasD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
55CGYAlan ShaikhlislamovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
56BOSYuri IvanovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
57MTLTimofei RuntsoD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
58EDMRudolfs BerzkalnsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
59DALJakub VanecekD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
60TORAlexander BileckiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
61CARWiggo SorenssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
62PHIMartin PsohlavecG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
63VGKForfeitedF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
64NYRBenjamin MacBeathD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
65CGYJoe IginlaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
66CHISamu AlalauriD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
67NYRDanai ShaiikovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
68CARZachary LansardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
69TOREthan MacKenzieD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
70NSHDmitri BorichevG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
71WPGSamuel HrenakG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
72OTTAdam NemecF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
73TORZach OlsenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
74COLBeckett HamiltonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
75STLLuke SchairerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
76TORMans GudmundssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
77NYRCharlie MorrisonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
78VANDmitri IvchenkoG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
79DETMichal OrsulakG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
80LAKBlake ZielinskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
81NYRTomas ChrenkoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
82ANARian ChudzinskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
83MINAdam AnderssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
84EDMMalcom GastrinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
85TORJuuso AinastoG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
86PITPierce MbuyiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
87OTTOscar HolmertzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
88BOSNils BartholdssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
89LAKYegor RybkinG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
90TBLTomas KralovicD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
91OTTLouis Felix BourqueF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
92VGKBenjamin WilmottF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
93MTLCooper CleavesD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
94CBJAlessandro Di IorioF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
95VGKSean BurickD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
96UTAAdam ValentiniF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
97VANYaroslav BryzgalovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
98FLAJonas KempsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
99SEAViktor FedorovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
100CGYEgor BarabanovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
101WSHTyus SparksF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
102NYRSpencer BowesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
103LAKThomas VandenbergF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
104BOSMatvei KotkovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
105CARMichael BerchildF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
106NSHJakub FlorisD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
107STLLandon NyczD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
108DETAdam LevacF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
109NYILincoln KuehneD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
110OTTElliot LennonG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
111PITParker Von RichterD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
112MINKayden LemireF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
113VGKJonah SivertsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
114TORPatriks PluminsG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
115UTACarl AxelssonG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
116WPGZach WootenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
117MTLBrayden KlimpkeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
118NSHJustin GrafF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
119NJDLavr GashilovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
120PHIMarek SklenickaG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
121CBJEvan JardineF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
122BOSOscar OlssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
123STLVladimir ProskurinG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
124BUFOlivers MurnieksF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
125CARRyder FetterolfG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
126COLTobias TvrznikG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
127SJSBrady KnowlingG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
128COLAxel ElofssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
129VANConnor DavisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
130UTATheodor KnightsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
131SEAFinn KearnsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
132CGYSimon KatolickyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
133EDMAndrew RobinsonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
134TBLMorgan AnderbergF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
135WPGAlexandre TailleferD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
136PHIKent SauerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
137MINFilip RuzickaG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
138NSHPhilip HemmyrF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
139STLNicholas BogasD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
140COLCole TuminaroD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
141NYIVladimir DraveckyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
142CBJParker SnellG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
143DETBeckham EdwardsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
144WSHBrian McFaddenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
145LAKVertti SvenskD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
146ANAEric FrossardD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
147UTAFlorent HouleF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
148SEALuken HuffD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
149NJDDaniil RusakovichG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
150STLCarter StevensF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
151OTTHarris PangretitschD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
152COLTheodore LechnerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
153LAKGiorgos PantelasD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
154TBLCooper SollerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
155DALRyan BrownF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
156BUFDoman SzongothF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
157BOSJacob VandevenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
158TORCooper WilliamsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
159VGKWill McLaughlinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
160PITMatvei NikonovichG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
161TORYaroslav FedoseyevD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
162NYRAndre MondouxD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
163NYRDarian AndersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
164CGYBode LaylinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
165CARZachary JovanovskiG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
166SEAOla PalmeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
167WPGLandon HafeleF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
168FLAVilho VanhataloF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
169TORBrody PepoyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
170BOSRoberto HenriquezG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
171STLLars SteinerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
172NJDLuke WilfleyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
173NYIArtyom MatyukF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
174SJSJake GustafsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
175DETLuka ArkkoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
176VANLucian BernatF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
177LAKAlex KostovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
178ANAGleb PeshkovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
179NSHBenjamin Cossette AyotteD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
180EDMCaden HarveyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
181FLACole ZurawskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
182CBJAnttoni UronenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
183OTTAlexander GruninD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
184VANSamuel ErikssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
185CBJJonas WooD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
186TBLStepan ShuryginG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
187DALAnton Emil Wilde LarsenG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
188BUFDylan DumontF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
189MTLParker TrottierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
190MTLWesley RoystonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
191VGKMatthew MinchakG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
192ANANoah KosickF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
193NYRIvan PatrikhayevD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
194CHIAlexander IvanovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
195COLShawn CarrierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
196DETMyles BrosnanD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
197DALJasper KuhtaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
198SEARylan SinghD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
199WPGAlofa Tunoa Ta'amuD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
200CHIWilliam SorbrandF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
201SJSAlexander KarmanovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
202NSHCharlie PuglisiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
203STLColin FitzgeraldF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
204SEAWilliam TomkoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
205NYIRobert CowanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
206CBJFilip NovakF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
207VGKNoel PakarinenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
208WSHLogan StuartF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
209LAKTobias KrestanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
210ANAJames RieberD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
211UTAArtem PrimaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
212EDMRyan CameronG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
213PHIMax LaatikainenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
214COLOndrej RumlD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
215COLAlexandre RaymondG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
216BOSCullen McCrateD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
217FLALouis-Antoine DenaultG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
218TBLMax VilenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
219DALMikhail CherepanovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
220WPGJohn ParsonsG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
221MTLJean-Samuel DaigneaultD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
222NJDQuinn McKenzieF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
223LAKLucas AmbrosioD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1
224MTLTyler DeakosF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 1

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75