CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2001 draft class285 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1ATLIlya KovalchukF92687611.210.9+0.01fair
2OTTJason SpezzaF12489957.98.9-0.06fair
3TBLAlexander SvitovF179370.77.3-0.73BUST
4FLAStephen WeissF7324235.97.2-0.09fair
5ANAStanislav ChistovF196611.05.9-0.62BUST
6MINMikko KoivuF10357116.05.1+0.07fair
7MTLMike KomisarekD551812.85.1-0.26poor value
8CBJPascal LeclaireG173—1.71.0+0.19fair
9CHITuomo RuutuF7353464.73.3+0.15fair
10NYRDan BlackburnG63—0.51.0-0.20fair
11PHXFredrik SjostromF4891042.03.3-0.20fair
12NSHDan HamhuisD11483566.81.5+0.56STEAL
13EDMAles HemskyF8455726.23.3+0.27great value
14CGYChuck KobasewF6012103.43.3+0.01fair
15CARIgor KnyazevD000.01.5-0.61BUST
16VANR.J. UmbergerF7793925.23.3+0.20fair
17TORCarlo ColaiacovoD4701573.31.5+0.30great value
18LAKJens KarlssonF000.03.2-0.76BUST
19BOSShaone MorrisonnD480752.71.5+0.23fair
20SJSMarcel GocF6361882.93.2-0.04fair
21PITColby ArmstrongF4762093.33.2+0.01fair
22BUFJiri NovotnyF189511.03.2-0.44poor value
23OTTTim GleasonD7271424.21.5+0.40great value
24FLALukas KrajicekD328722.11.5+0.13fair
25MTLAlexander PerezhoginF128340.52.9-0.53BUST
26DALJason BacashihuaG38—0.21.0-0.35poor value
27PHIJeff WoywitkaD278551.61.5+0.02fair
28NJDAdrian FosterF000.02.5-0.71BUST
29CHIAdam MunroG17—0.11.0-0.41poor value
30LAKDavid SteckelF425791.82.1-0.07fair
31PHXMatthew SpillerD6820.21.5-0.50BUST
32BUFDerek RoyF7385246.51.7+0.52STEAL
33NSHTimofei ShishkanovF2450.11.6-0.56BUST
34FLAGreg WatsonF000.01.4-0.58BUST
35ANAMark PopovicD8170.31.4-0.41poor value
36MINKyle WanvigF75150.31.2-0.38poor value
37MTLDuncan MilroyF510.01.2-0.53BUST
38CBJTim JackmanF483751.31.2+0.04fair
39TORKarel PilarD90300.81.4-0.19fair
40NYRFedor TyutinD8722645.91.4+0.55STEAL
41CGYAndrei TaratukhinF000.01.2-0.54BUST
42NSHTomas SlovakD000.01.3-0.57BUST
43EDMDoug LynchD200.01.3-0.57BUST
44NJDIgor PohankaF000.01.2-0.54BUST
45PHXMartin PodlesakF000.01.2-0.54BUST
46CARMike ZigomanisF197400.81.2-0.14fair
47TBLAlexander PolushinF000.01.2-0.54BUST
48NJDTuomas PihlmanF1520.01.2-0.52BUST
49LAKMichael CammalleriF9066426.51.2+0.61STEAL
50BUFChris ThorburnF8011341.71.2+0.13fair
51LAKJaroslav BednarF102350.61.2-0.22fair
52EDMEdward CaronF000.01.2-0.54BUST
53CBJKiel McLeodF000.01.2-0.54BUST
54PITNoah WelchD7590.31.3-0.39poor value
55BUFJason PominvilleF10607276.61.2+0.62STEAL
56CGYAndrei MedvedevG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
57STLJay McClementF9062443.61.2+0.42great value
59CHIMatt KeithF2750.11.2-0.47poor value
60NJDVictor UchevatovD000.01.3-0.57BUST
61TBLAndreas HolmqvistD000.01.3-0.57BUST
62DETIgor GrigorenkoF000.01.2-0.54BUST
63COLPeter BudajG368—2.61.0+0.35great value
64FLATomas MalecD4620.11.2-0.47poor value
65TORBrendan BellD102280.71.2-0.16fair
66VANFedor FedorovF1820.11.1-0.49poor value
67NJDRobin LeblancF000.01.1-0.52BUST
68FLAGrant McNeillD300.01.0-0.50BUST
69ANAJoel SteppF000.01.0-0.50BUST
70DALYared HagosF000.01.0-0.50poor value
71MTLTomas PlekanecF10016086.01.0+0.63STEAL
73CHICraig AndersonG709—4.11.0+0.51STEAL
74MINChris HeidD000.00.8-0.45poor value
75NSHDenis PlatonovF000.00.9-0.47poor value
76NSHOliver SetzingerF000.00.9-0.46poor value
77BOSDarren McLachlanF000.00.8-0.46poor value
78PHXBeat ForsterD000.00.8-0.44poor value
79NYRGarth MurrayF116100.30.8-0.26poor value
80ATLMichael GarnettG24—0.21.0-0.36poor value
81OTTNeil KomadoskiD000.00.8-0.43poor value
82TORJay HarrisonD372751.80.7+0.30great value
83LAKHenrik JuntunenF000.00.7-0.42poor value
84EDMKenny SmithD000.00.7-0.42poor value
85CBJAaron JohnsonD291621.70.7+0.29great value
86PITDrew FataD820.10.7-0.38poor value
87CBJPer MarsF000.00.7-0.40poor value
88TORNicolas CorbeilF000.00.6-0.39poor value
89STLTuomas NissinenG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
90WSHOwen FusseyF410.00.6-0.37poor value
91CARKevin EstradaF000.00.6-0.38poor value
92DALAnthony AquinoF000.00.6-0.38poor value
93MINStephane VeilleuxF5061062.00.6+0.39great value
94TBLEvgeny ArtyukhinF199490.80.6+0.08fair
95PHIPatrick SharpF9396205.80.6+0.71STEAL
96PITAlexandre RouleauD000.00.7-0.41poor value
97COLDanny BoisF100.00.6-0.37poor value
98NSHJordin TootooF7231612.40.6+0.45great value
99OTTRay EmeryG287—2.80.8+0.43great value
100ATLBrian SipotzD000.00.7-0.41poor value
101NYICory StillmanF000.00.6-0.36poor value
102ANATimo ParssinenF1730.10.6-0.31poor value
103MINTony VirtaF850.10.6-0.30poor value
104CHIBrent MacLellanD000.00.7-0.41poor value
105ANAVladimir KorsunovD000.00.7-0.41poor value
106SJSChristian EhrhoffD7893396.90.7+0.72STEAL
107SJSDimitri PatzoldG3—0.00.7-0.40poor value
108CGYTomi MakiF100.00.5-0.35poor value
109MTLMartti JarventieD100.00.7-0.41poor value
110CARRob ZeppG10—0.00.6-0.38poor value
111BOSMatti KaltiainenG0—0.00.6-0.37poor value
112ATLMilan GajicF000.00.5-0.34poor value
113NYRBryce LampmanD1000.00.7-0.38poor value
114VANEvgeny GladskikhF000.00.5-0.34poor value
115CHIVladimir GusevD000.00.7-0.41poor value
116LAKRichard PetiotD1530.10.7-0.34poor value
117FLAMichael WoodfordF000.00.5-0.33poor value
118ANABrandon RogersD000.00.7-0.41poor value
119CHIAleksey ZotkinF000.00.5-0.33poor value
120PITTomas SurovyF126590.90.5+0.16fair
121DETDrew MacIntyreG6—0.00.4-0.29poor value
122STLIgor ValeevF000.00.5-0.33poor value
123TBLAaron LobbF000.00.5-0.32poor value
124CGYEgor ShastinF000.00.5-0.32poor value
125WSHJeff LuckyF000.00.5-0.32poor value
126DALDaniel VolrabF000.00.5-0.32poor value
127OTTChristoph SchubertD315721.80.6+0.34great value
128NJDAndrei PosnovF000.00.5-0.32poor value
129DETMiroslav BlatakD000.00.6-0.38poor value
130COLColt KingF000.00.5-0.31poor value
131PITBen EavesF000.00.5-0.31poor value
132NYIDusan SalfickyG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
133EDMJussi MarkkanenG128—1.40.3+0.40great value
134TORKyle WellwoodF4892353.50.4+0.62STEAL
135ATLColin StuartF56130.20.4-0.12fair
136FLABilly ThompsonG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
137ANAJoel PerraultF96260.40.4+0.01fair
138TBLPaul LynchD000.00.6-0.36poor value
139NYRShawn CollymoreF000.00.4-0.30poor value
140SJSTomas PlihalF89160.30.4-0.06fair
141CBJCole JarrettD000.00.6-0.35poor value
142CHITommi JaminkiF000.00.4-0.29poor value
143COLFrantisek SkladanyF000.00.4-0.29poor value
144COLCody McCormickF405651.10.4+0.26great value
145CGYJames HakewillD000.00.5-0.35poor value
146PHIJussi TimonenD1440.10.5-0.27poor value
147BOSJiri JakesF000.00.4-0.29poor value
148PHXDavid KlemaF000.00.4-0.28poor value
149COLMikko ViitanenD000.00.5-0.34poor value
150PHIBernd BrucklerG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
151VANKevin BieksaD8082785.10.5+0.70STEAL
152LAKTerry DenikeG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
153LAKTuukka MantylaD000.00.5-0.33poor value
154EDMJake BrenkF000.00.4-0.28poor value
155BUFMichal VondrkaF000.00.4-0.28poor value
156PITAndy SchneiderD000.00.5-0.32poor value
157DETAndreas JamtinF000.00.4-0.28poor value
158PHIRoman MalekG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
159STLDimitri SeminF000.00.4-0.28poor value
160WSHArtem TernavskyD000.00.5-0.31poor value
161DALMike SmithG670—3.20.3+0.63STEAL
162OTTStefan SchauerD000.00.4-0.31poor value
163NJDAndreas SalomonssonF71140.30.4-0.06fair
164CGYYuri TrubachevF000.00.4-0.28poor value
165COLPierre-Luc EmondF000.00.4-0.28poor value
167DALMichal BlazekD000.00.4-0.30poor value
168TORMaxim KondratievD4030.10.4-0.17fair
169FLADustin JohnerF000.00.4-0.27poor value
170ANAJan TabacekD000.00.4-0.29poor value
171MTLEric HimelfarbF000.00.4-0.27poor value
172PHIDennis SeidenbergD8592515.30.4+0.73STEAL
173CBJJustin AikinsF000.00.4-0.27poor value
174CHIAlexander GolvinF000.00.4-0.27poor value
175SJSRyane CloweF4913094.10.4+0.68STEAL
176NYRMarek ZidlickyD8364177.60.4+0.80STEAL
177PHIAndrei RazinF000.00.4-0.27poor value
178NSHAnton LavrentievD000.00.4-0.28poor value
179BOSAndrew AlbertsD459552.20.4+0.50STEAL
180PHXScott PolaskiF000.00.4-0.27poor value
181CARDaniel BoisclairG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
182SJSTom CavanaghF1830.10.4-0.22fair
183TORJaroslav SklenarF000.00.4-0.27poor value
184COLScott HorvathF000.00.4-0.27poor value
185EDMMikael SvenskD000.00.4-0.26poor value
186CHIPetr PuncocharD000.00.4-0.26poor value
187CBJArtem VostrikovF000.00.4-0.27poor value
188TBLArt FemenellaD000.00.3-0.26poor value
189ATLPasi NurminenG125—1.10.3+0.32great value
190STLBrett ScheffelmaierD000.00.3-0.25poor value
191WSHZbynek NovakF000.00.4-0.27poor value
192DALJussi JokinenF9515635.10.4+0.73STEAL
193OTTBrooks LaichF7763324.30.4+0.70STEAL
194NJDJames MassenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
195DETNick PannoniG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
196COLCharlie StephensF820.00.4-0.24fair
197NYIJan HolubD000.00.3-0.24fair
198TORIvan KolozvaryF000.00.4-0.26poor value
199ATLMatt SudermanD000.00.3-0.24fair
200FLAToni KoivistoF000.00.3-0.26poor value
201ATLColin FitzrandolphF000.00.3-0.26poor value
202MINDerek BoogaardF277160.40.3+0.03fair
203MTLAndrew ArcherD000.00.3-0.24fair
204CBJRaffaele SannitzF000.00.3-0.25poor value
205CHITeemu JaaskelainenD000.00.3-0.24fair
206NYRPetr PreucilF000.00.3-0.25poor value
207CGYGarett BembridgeF000.00.3-0.25poor value
208PHIThierry DouvilleD000.00.3-0.24fair
209BOSJordan SigaletG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
210PHXSteve BelangerG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
211CARSean CurryD000.00.3-0.24fair
212VANJason KingF59230.40.3+0.03fair
213TORJan ChovanG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
214LAKCristobal HuetG272—3.10.3+0.63STEAL
215EDMDan BaumF000.00.3-0.24fair
216CHIOleg MinakovF000.00.3-0.24fair
217PITTomas DubaG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
218OTTJan PlatilD000.00.3-0.24fair
219TBLDennis PackardF000.00.3-0.24fair
220CGYDavid MossF5011782.50.3+0.57STEAL
221WSHJohnny OduyaD8501904.00.3+0.69STEAL
222TBLJeremy Van HoofD000.00.3-0.24fair
223OTTBrandon BochenskiF156680.90.3+0.28great value
224ANATony MartenssonF620.00.3-0.20fair
225PHIDavid PrintzD1300.00.3-0.23fair
226NYRPontus PetterstromF000.00.3-0.23fair
227COLMarek SvatosF3441722.30.3+0.56STEAL
228NYIMike BrayF000.00.3-0.23fair
229NJDAaron VorosF162370.60.3+0.16fair
230NYRLeonid ZhvachinD000.00.3-0.24fair
231FLAKyle BruceF000.00.3-0.22fair
232ANAMartin GerberG229—2.70.3+0.59STEAL
233CGYJoe CampbellD000.00.3-0.24fair
234BUFCalle AslundD000.00.3-0.24fair
235OTTNeil PetruicD000.00.3-0.24fair
236CBJRyan BownessF000.00.3-0.22fair
237LAKMike GabinetD000.00.3-0.24fair
238NYRRyan HollwegF228140.40.3+0.10fair
239MINJake RiddleF000.00.3-0.21fair
240NSHGustav GrasbergF000.00.3-0.21fair
241BOSMilan JurcinaD430812.50.3+0.57STEAL
242CBJAndrew MurrayF221400.80.3+0.26great value
243PHXFrantisek LukesF000.00.3-0.21fair
244CARCarter TrevisaniD000.00.3-0.24fair
245VANKonstantin MihailovF000.00.3-0.21fair
246TORTomas MojzisD1730.10.3-0.18fair
247BUFMarek DubecD000.00.3-0.24fair
248EDMKari HaakanaD1300.00.3-0.23fair
249WSHMatt MaglioneD000.00.3-0.24fair
250PITBrandon Crawford-WestG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
251CGYVille HamalainenF000.00.3-0.20fair
252TBLJean-Francois SoucyF000.00.2-0.20fair
253STLPetr CajanekF2691532.20.2+0.57STEAL
254WSHPeter PolcikF000.00.2-0.20fair
255DALMarco RosaF000.00.2-0.20fair
256OTTGregg JohnsonF000.00.2-0.20fair
257NJDEvgeny GamalejD000.00.3-0.24fair
258DETDmitri BykovD71120.40.3+0.05fair
259TBLDimitri BezrukovF000.00.2-0.20fair
260NYIBryan PerezF000.00.2-0.20fair
261TBLVitali SmolyninovF000.00.2-0.20fair
262ATLMario CartelliD000.00.3-0.24fair
263FLAJan BlanarD000.00.3-0.24fair
264ANAPA ParenteauF4912962.80.2+0.64STEAL
265DALDale SullivanF000.00.2-0.20fair
266MTLViktor UjcikF000.00.2-0.20fair
267FLAIvan MajeskyD202311.10.3+0.32great value
268CHIJeff MilesF000.00.2-0.20fair
269NYRJuris StalsF000.00.2-0.20fair
270STLGrant JacobsenF000.00.2-0.20fair
271NSHMikko LehtonenD1530.10.3-0.17fair
272EDMAles PisaD5340.20.3-0.09fair
273PHXSeverin BlindenbacherD000.00.3-0.24fair
274CARPeter ReynoldsD000.00.3-0.24fair
275WSHRobert MullerG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
276TORMike KnoepfliF000.00.2-0.20fair
277LAKSebastien LaplanteG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
279BUFRyan JordeD000.00.3-0.24fair
280NYIRoman KuhtinovD000.00.3-0.24fair
281TBLIlya SolarevF000.00.2-0.20fair
282BOSMarcel RodmanF000.00.2-0.20fair
283STLSimon SkoogD000.00.3-0.24fair
284WSHViktor HublF000.00.2-0.20fair
285DALMarek TomicaF000.00.2-0.20fair
286OTTToni DahlmanF2220.00.2-0.15fair
287NYIJuha-Pekka KetolaF000.00.2-0.20fair
288DETFrancois SenezD000.00.3-0.24fair
289TBLHenrik BergforsD000.00.3-0.24fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75