CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2002 draft class288 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1CBJRick NashF10608059.010.9-0.09fair
2ATLKari LehtonenG649—5.35.6-0.03fair
3FLAJay BouwmeesterD12404249.35.7+0.23fair
4PHIJoni PitkanenD5352826.65.7+0.07fair
5PITRyan WhitneyD4812596.15.7+0.03fair
6NSHScottie UpshallF7592843.35.1-0.19fair
7ANAJoffrey LupulF7014205.55.1+0.04fair
8MINPierre-Marc BouchardF5933565.13.3+0.19fair
9FLAPetr TaticekF300.03.3-0.77BUST
10CGYEric NystromF5931232.33.3-0.16fair
11BUFKeith BallardD6041754.71.5+0.44great value
12WSHSteve EmingerD488993.11.5+0.27great value
13WSHAlexander SeminF6505176.93.3+0.32great value
14MTLChris HigginsF7113334.73.3+0.16fair
15EDMJesse NiinimakiF000.03.3-0.77BUST
16OTTJakub KlepisF66140.23.3-0.68BUST
17WSHBoyd GordonF7061613.03.3-0.04fair
18LAKDenis GrebeshkovD234852.11.5+0.11fair
19PHXJakub KoreisF000.03.2-0.76BUST
20BUFDaniel PailleF5821722.83.2-0.06fair
21CHIAnton BabchukD2891072.41.5+0.18fair
22NYISean BergenheimF5061802.73.2-0.08fair
23PHXBen EagerF407851.43.2-0.31poor value
24TORAlexander SteenF10186225.63.0+0.27great value
25CARCam WardG701—5.01.0+0.58STEAL
27SJSMike MorrisF000.02.6-0.72BUST
28COLJonas JohanssonF100.02.5-0.71BUST
29BOSHannu ToivonenG61—0.61.0-0.16fair
30ATLJim SlaterF5841382.22.1+0.02fair
31EDMJeff DeslauriersG62—0.51.0-0.19fair
32DALJanos VasF000.01.7-0.63BUST
33NYRLee FalardeauF000.01.6-0.61BUST
34DALTobias StephanG11—0.01.0-0.47poor value
35PITOndrej NemecD000.01.4-0.59BUST
36EDMJarret StollF8723885.81.2+0.57STEAL
38MINJosh HardingG151—1.91.0+0.24fair
39CGYBrian McConnellF000.01.2-0.54BUST
40FLARob GlobkeF4620.11.2-0.49poor value
41CBJJoakim LindstromF150430.51.2-0.25fair
42DALMarius HoltetF000.01.2-0.54BUST
43DALTrevor DaleyD10583095.71.3+0.54STEAL
44EDMMatt GreeneD615802.61.3+0.26great value
45MTLTomas LinhartD000.01.3-0.57BUST
46PHXDavid LeneveuG22—0.11.0-0.41poor value
47OTTAlexei KaigorodovF610.01.2-0.54BUST
48STLAlexei ShkotovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
49VANKiril KoltsovD000.01.3-0.57BUST
50LAKSergei AnshakovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
51NJDAnton KadeykinD000.01.3-0.57BUST
52SJSDan SpangD000.01.3-0.57BUST
53NJDBarry TallacksonF2020.01.2-0.51BUST
54CHIDuncan KeithD12566469.01.3+0.68STEAL
55VANDenis GrotD000.01.3-0.57BUST
56BOSVladislav EvseevF000.01.2-0.54BUST
57TORMatt StajanF10034135.51.2+0.56STEAL
58DETJiri HudlerF7084284.41.2+0.49great value
59WSHMaxime DaigneaultG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
60TBLAdam HenrichF000.01.2-0.54BUST
61COLJohnny BoychukD7252062.51.3+0.24fair
62STLAndrei MikhnovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
63DETTomas FleischmannF6573354.51.2+0.50great value
64NJDJason RyznarF800.01.2-0.53BUST
65CBJOle-Kristian TollefsenD163120.61.2-0.22fair
66LAKPetr KankoF1010.01.1-0.51BUST
67FLAGregory CampbellF8031873.21.1+0.40great value
68VANBrett SkinnerD1100.01.0-0.49poor value
69PITErik ChristensenF3871632.41.0+0.31great value
70PHXJoe CallahanD4640.20.9-0.35poor value
71ANABrian LeeD———0.9—
72MINMichael EricksonF000.00.9-0.48poor value
73MINBarry BrustG11—0.11.0-0.46poor value
74TORTodd FordG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
75OTTArttu LuttinenF000.00.9-0.47poor value
76BUFMichael TessierF000.00.9-0.46poor value
77WSHPatrick WellarD000.00.8-0.44poor value
78DALGeoff WaughD000.00.8-0.44poor value
79EDMBrock RadunskeF000.00.8-0.45poor value
80PHXMatt JonesD106110.40.8-0.14fair
81NYRMarcus JonasenF000.00.8-0.43poor value
82BUFJohn AdamsD000.00.7-0.43poor value
83VANLukas MensatorG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
84NJDMarek ChvatalD000.00.7-0.42poor value
85NJDAhren NittelF000.00.7-0.41poor value
87NYIFrans NielsenF9254734.10.7+0.60STEAL
88TORDominic D'AmourD000.00.7-0.41poor value
89STLTomas TroligaF000.00.6-0.39poor value
90CGYMatthew LombardiF5362624.10.6+0.61STEAL
91CARJesse LaneD000.00.7-0.41poor value
92WSHDerek KrestanovichF000.00.6-0.38poor value
93CHIAlexander KojevnikovF000.00.6-0.38poor value
94COLEric LundbergD000.00.7-0.41poor value
95DETValtteri FilppulaF10565304.80.6+0.66STEAL
96CBJJeff GenovyF000.00.6-0.37poor value
97PHXLance MonychF000.00.6-0.37poor value
98CBJIvan TkachenkoF000.00.6-0.37poor value
99MTLMichael LambertF000.00.6-0.36poor value
100TBLDimitri KazionovF000.00.6-0.36poor value
101PITDaniel FernholmD000.00.7-0.41poor value
102NSHBrandon SegalF103220.40.6-0.10fair
103ANAJoonas VihkoF000.00.6-0.36poor value
104LAKAaron RomeD226281.20.7+0.17fair
105PHIRosario RuggeriD000.00.7-0.41poor value
106EDMIvan KoltsovD000.00.7-0.41poor value
107COLMikko KaltevaD000.00.7-0.41poor value
108BUFJakub HulvaF000.00.5-0.35poor value
109WSHJevon DesautelsF000.00.5-0.35poor value
110DALJarkko A. ImmonenF000.00.5-0.35poor value
111EDMJonas AlmtorpF000.00.5-0.34poor value
112CGYYuri ArtemenkovF000.00.5-0.34poor value
113OTTScott DobbenF000.00.5-0.34poor value
114VANJohn LaliberteF000.00.5-0.34poor value
115LAKMark RooneemF000.00.5-0.34poor value
116ATLPatrick DwyerF416931.80.5+0.40great value
117NJDCam JanssenF336140.40.5-0.04fair
118WSHPetr DvorakF000.00.5-0.33poor value
119CBJJekabs RedlihsD000.00.7-0.41poor value
120STLRobin JonssonD000.00.7-0.40poor value
121BUFMarty MagersG0—0.00.4-0.29poor value
122TORDavid TuronD000.00.7-0.40poor value
123EDMVoidF000.00.5-0.32poor value
124ATLLane MansonD000.00.7-0.39poor value
125OTTJohan BjorkD000.00.6-0.39poor value
126PHIKonstantin BaranovF000.00.5-0.32poor value
127NYRNate GueninD205280.50.6-0.09fair
128CHIMatt EllisonF43140.20.5-0.14fair
129COLTom GilbertD6552235.40.6+0.68STEAL
130BOSJan KubistaF000.00.5-0.31poor value
131DETJohan BerggrenD000.00.6-0.38poor value
132PHXJohn ZeilerF9050.20.4-0.17fair
133CBJLasse PirjetaF146500.80.4+0.16fair
134FLATopi JaakolaD000.00.6-0.37poor value
135TBLJoseph PearceG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
136PITAndrew SertichF000.00.4-0.30poor value
137PITCam PaddockF1630.10.4-0.25poor value
138NSHPatrick JarrettF000.00.4-0.30poor value
139SJSKris NewburyF76100.20.4-0.15fair
140ANAGeorge DavisF000.00.4-0.30poor value
141CGYJiri CetkovskyF000.00.4-0.30poor value
142CGYEmanuel PeterF000.00.4-0.29poor value
143NYRMike WalshF000.00.4-0.29poor value
144ATLPaul FlacheD000.00.5-0.35poor value
145WSHRobert GhersonG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
146CGYVictor BobrovF000.00.4-0.29poor value
147DALDavid BararukF000.00.4-0.29poor value
148EDMGlenn FisherG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
149NYIMarcus PaulssonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
150OTTBrock HootonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
151VANRobert McVicarG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
152LAKGreg HogeboomF000.00.4-0.28poor value
153BOSPeter HamerlikG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
154NJDKrisjanis RedlihsD000.00.5-0.33poor value
155MINArmands BerzinsF000.00.4-0.28poor value
156CHIJames WisniewskiD5522745.70.5+0.73STEAL
157LAKJoel AndresenD000.00.5-0.32poor value
158FLAVince BellissimoF000.00.4-0.28poor value
159CGYKristofer PerssonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
160CARDaniel ManzatoG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
161PHIDov Grumet-MorrisG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
162TBLGerard DicaireD000.00.4-0.31poor value
163SJSTom WalshD000.00.4-0.31poor value
164COLTyler WeimanG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
165STLJustin MaiserF000.00.4-0.28poor value
166DETLogan KoopmansG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
167ATLBrad SchellF000.00.4-0.28poor value
168CBJTim KonsoradaF000.00.4-0.28poor value
169FLAJeremy SwansonD000.00.4-0.30poor value
170TBLP.J. AthertonD000.00.4-0.29poor value
171PITRobert GoepfertG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
172NSHMike McKennaG35—0.10.3-0.12fair
173ANALuke FritshawD000.00.4-0.29poor value
174TBLKarri AkkanenF000.00.4-0.27poor value
175MINMatt FoyF56130.20.4-0.11fair
176CGYCurtis McElhinneyG249—0.60.3+0.17fair
177NYRJake TaylorD000.00.4-0.28poor value
178BUFMaxim ShevievF000.00.4-0.27poor value
179WSHMarian HavelF000.00.4-0.27poor value
180DALKirill SidorenkoF000.00.4-0.27poor value
181EDMMikko LuomaD310.00.4-0.25fair
182MTLAndre DeveauxF3120.10.4-0.22fair
183TBLPaul RangerD3231062.80.4+0.58STEAL
184CBJJaroslav BalastikF74240.40.4-0.00fair
185LAKRyan MurphyF000.00.4-0.27poor value
186PHXJeff PietrasiakG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
187NJDEric JohanssonF000.00.4-0.27poor value
188CHIKevin KanteeD000.00.3-0.26poor value
189NYIAlexei StonkusD000.00.3-0.26poor value
190STLDJ KingF118110.20.4-0.09fair
191TORIan WhiteD5031794.70.3+0.72STEAL
192PHINikita KorovkinD000.00.3-0.25fair
193PHIJoey MorminaD100.00.3-0.25fair
194NYRKim HirschovitsF000.00.4-0.27poor value
195COLTaylor ChristieD000.00.3-0.24fair
196FLAMikael VuorioG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
197DETJames CuddihyF000.00.4-0.26poor value
198ATLNathan OystrickD65150.40.3+0.04fair
199CBJGreg MauldinF36100.20.4-0.12fair
200FLADenis YachmenevF000.00.3-0.26poor value
201PHIMathieu BrunelleF000.00.3-0.26poor value
202PITPatrik BartschiF000.00.3-0.26poor value
203NSHJosh MorrowD000.00.3-0.24fair
204MINNiklas EckerblomF000.00.3-0.25poor value
205EDMJean-Francois DufortF000.00.3-0.25poor value
206CGYDavid Van Der GulikF49130.20.3-0.07fair
207CGYPierre JohnssonD000.00.3-0.24fair
208BUFRadoslav HeclD1400.00.3-0.22fair
209WSHJoni LindlofF000.00.3-0.25fair
210DALBryan HammD000.00.3-0.24fair
211EDMPatrick MurphyF000.00.3-0.25fair
212MTLJonathan FerlandF710.00.3-0.23fair
213TBLFredrik NorrenaG100—0.70.3+0.20fair
214VANMarc-Andre RoyF000.00.3-0.24fair
215LAKMikhail LyubushinD000.00.3-0.24fair
216PHXLadislav KoubaF000.00.3-0.24fair
217SJSTim ConboyD5960.20.3-0.11fair
218NJDIlkka PikkarainenF3140.10.3-0.16fair
219CHITyson KellermanG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
220NYIBrad ToppingG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
221STLJonas JohnsonF000.00.3-0.23fair
222TORScott MayF000.00.3-0.23fair
223VANIlia KrikunovF000.00.3-0.23fair
224CARAdam TaylorF000.00.3-0.23fair
225CBJSteven GoertzenF6840.10.3-0.11fair
226NYRJoey CrabbF179531.00.3+0.29great value
227COLRyan SteevesF000.00.3-0.23fair
228BOSDmitri UtkinF000.00.3-0.23fair
229DETDerek MeechD144170.60.3+0.14fair
230ATLColton FretterF000.00.3-0.22fair
231CBJJaroslav KracikF000.00.3-0.22fair
232FLAPeter HafnerD000.00.3-0.24fair
233TBLVasily KoshechkinG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
234PITMax TalbotF7042043.30.3+0.66STEAL
235NSHKaleb BettsF000.00.3-0.22fair
236ATLTyler BoldtD000.00.3-0.24fair
237MINChristoph BrandnerF3590.20.3-0.06fair
238CGYJyri MarttinenD000.00.3-0.24fair
239PITRyan LannonD000.00.3-0.24fair
240NYRPetr PruchaF3461462.10.3+0.55STEAL
241BUFDennis WidemanD8153877.40.3+0.81STEAL
242WSHIgor IgnatushkinF000.00.3-0.21fair
243DALTuomas MikkonenF000.00.3-0.21fair
244EDMDwight HelminenF2730.10.3-0.15fair
245EDMTomas MickaF000.00.3-0.21fair
246OTTJosef VavraF000.00.3-0.21fair
247VANMatt ViolinG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
248LAKTuukka PulliainenF000.00.3-0.20fair
249PHXMarcus SmithD000.00.3-0.24fair
250NJDDan GloverD000.00.3-0.24fair
251CHIJason KostadineF000.00.3-0.20fair
252NYIMartin ChabadaF000.00.2-0.20fair
253STLTom KoivistoD2260.20.3-0.11fair
254TORJarkko ImmonenF2080.10.2-0.10fair
255TBLRyan CraigF198631.00.2+0.34great value
256TBLDarren ReidF2110.00.2-0.16fair
257ATLPauli LevokariD000.00.3-0.24fair
258COLSergei ShemetovF000.00.2-0.20fair
259BOSYan StastnyF91160.30.2+0.04fair
260DETPierre-Olivier BeaulieuD000.00.3-0.24fair
261ANAFrancois CaronD000.00.3-0.24fair
262DETChristian SoderstromF000.00.2-0.20fair
263CBJSergei MozyakinF000.00.2-0.20fair
264NSHMatt DavisG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
265PITDwight LabrosseG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
266NSHSteven SpencerD000.00.3-0.24fair
267ANAChris PetrowD000.00.3-0.24fair
268MINMikhail TyulyapkinD000.00.3-0.24fair
269MINMika HannulaF000.00.2-0.20fair
270NYRRob FlynnF000.00.2-0.20fair
271BUFMartin CizekD000.00.3-0.24fair
272WSHPatric BlomdahlF000.00.2-0.20fair
273DALNed HavernF000.00.2-0.20fair
274EDMFredrik JohanssonF000.00.2-0.20fair
275MTLKonstantin KorneevD000.00.3-0.24fair
276OTTVitali AtyushovD000.00.3-0.24fair
277VANThomas NussliF000.00.2-0.20fair
278VANMatt GensD000.00.3-0.24fair
279LAKConnor JamesF1610.00.2-0.17fair
280PHXRussell SpenceF000.00.2-0.20fair
281NJDBill KinkelF000.00.2-0.20fair
282CHIAdam BurishF378601.40.2+0.43great value
283NYIPer BraxenholmD000.00.3-0.24fair
284STLRyan MacMurchyF000.00.2-0.20fair
285TORStaffan KronwallD6640.20.3-0.08fair
286TBLAlexei GlukhovF000.00.2-0.20fair
287TBLJohn ToffeyF000.00.2-0.20fair
288SJSMichael HutchinsD000.00.3-0.24fair
289COLSean CollinsF———0.2—
290BOSPavel FrolovF000.00.2-0.20fair
291DETJonathan EricssonD6801252.40.3+0.55STEAL

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75