CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2004 draft class289 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1WSHAlex OvechkinF1581169112.710.9+0.07fair
2PITEvgeni MalkinF127814149.88.9+0.05fair
3CHICam BarkerD310962.45.7-0.36poor value
4CARAndrew LaddF10015507.27.2+0.00fair
5PHXBlake WheelerF11729436.65.9+0.05fair
6NYRAl MontoyaG168—1.51.9-0.08fair
7FLARostislav OleszF3651342.25.1-0.35poor value
8CBJAlexandre PicardF6720.13.3-0.72BUST
9ANALadislav SmidD583723.25.1-0.21fair
10ATLBoris ValabikD8070.31.5-0.43poor value
11LAKLauri TukonenF500.03.3-0.77BUST
12MINA.J. ThelenD000.01.5-0.61BUST
13BUFDrew StaffordF8414285.73.3+0.24fair
14EDMDevan DubnykG542—3.51.0+0.45great value
15NSHAlexander RadulovF5243681.33.3-0.35poor value
16NYIPetteri NokelainenF245410.83.3-0.48poor value
17STLMarek SchwarzG6—0.01.0-0.49poor value
18MTLKyle ChipchuraF4821042.13.2-0.18fair
19NYRLauri KorpikoskiF6092013.33.2+0.01fair
20NJDTravis ZajacF10375526.33.2+0.29great value
21COLWojtek WolskiF4512673.93.2+0.08fair
22SJSLukas KasparF1640.13.2-0.74BUST
23OTTAndrej MeszarosD6452385.91.5+0.52STEAL
24CGYKris ChuckoF200.03.0-0.75BUST
25EDMRob SchrempF114540.82.9-0.44poor value
26VANCory SchneiderG410—4.11.0+0.51STEAL
27WSHJeff SchultzD409762.61.5+0.20fair
28DALMark FistricD325341.51.5-0.01fair
29WSHMike GreenD8805018.81.5+0.64STEAL
30TBLAndy RogersD000.01.5-0.61BUST
31PITJohannes SalmonssonF000.01.9-0.66BUST
32CHIDave BollandF4332083.41.7+0.27great value
33WSHChris BourqueF5180.21.6-0.48poor value
34DALJohan FranssonD000.01.5-0.61BUST
35PHXLogan StephensonD000.01.4-0.59BUST
36NYRDarin OlverF000.01.2-0.54BUST
37FLADavid ShantzG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
38CARJustin PetersG83—0.81.0-0.07fair
39ANAJordan SmithD000.01.4-0.58BUST
40ATLGrant LewisD100.01.4-0.58BUST
41CHIBryan BickellF3951362.41.2+0.26great value
42MINRoman VoloshenkoF000.01.2-0.54BUST
43BUFMichael FunkD920.01.3-0.55BUST
44EDMRoman TeslyukD000.01.3-0.57BUST
45CHIRyan GarlockF000.01.2-0.54BUST
46CBJAdam PineaultF300.01.2-0.54BUST
47NYIBlake ComeauF9093343.91.2+0.44great value
48NYRDane ByersF1410.01.2-0.53BUST
49STLCarl SoderbergF5972972.11.2+0.22fair
50PHXEnver LisinF135420.71.2-0.17fair
51NYRBruce GrahamF000.01.2-0.54BUST
52DALRaymond SawadaF1110.01.2-0.53BUST
53FLADavid BoothF5302363.61.2+0.41great value
54CHIJakub SindelF000.01.2-0.54BUST
55COLVictor OreskovichF6790.21.2-0.42poor value
56DALNicklas GrossmannD592863.31.3+0.35great value
57EDMGeoff PaukovichF000.01.2-0.54BUST
58OTTKirill LyaminD000.01.3-0.57BUST
59CBJKyle WhartonD000.01.3-0.57BUST
60NYRBrandon DubinskyF8234385.71.2+0.57STEAL
61PITAlex GoligoskiD10784756.81.3+0.60STEAL
62WSHMichail YunkovF000.01.2-0.54BUST
63BOSDavid KrejciF10327866.91.2+0.63STEAL
64BOSMartins KarsumsF2460.11.2-0.47poor value
65TBLMark TobinF000.01.1-0.53BUST
66WSHSami LepistoD176351.11.1-0.02fair
67PITNick JohnsonF113370.71.1-0.14fair
68CHIAdam BertiF200.01.0-0.51BUST
69CARCasey BorerD1630.11.0-0.43poor value
70CGYBrandon PrustF4861152.31.0+0.30great value
71BUFAndrej SekeraD8422535.10.9+0.60STEAL
72COLDenis ParshinF000.00.9-0.48poor value
73NYRZdenek BahenskyF000.00.9-0.48poor value
74ANAKyle KlubertanzD000.00.8-0.45poor value
75ANATim BrentF207480.90.9+0.02fair
76ATLScott LehmanD100.00.8-0.44poor value
77OTTShawn WellerF000.00.8-0.46poor value
78MINPeter OlveckyF3270.10.8-0.37poor value
79MINClayton StonerD360481.90.8+0.30great value
80NYRBilly RyanF000.00.8-0.44poor value
81NSHVaclav MeidlF000.00.8-0.43poor value
82NYISergei OgorodnikovF000.00.8-0.43poor value
83STLVictor AlexandrovF000.00.7-0.42poor value
84MTLAlexei EmelinD456812.20.7+0.36great value
85PITBrian GiffordF000.00.7-0.41poor value
86DALJohn LammersF000.00.7-0.41poor value
87OTTPeter ReginF243671.20.7+0.20fair
88WSHClayton BarthelD000.00.7-0.41poor value
89OTTJeff GlassG15—0.01.0-0.50poor value
90TORJustin PoggeG7—0.01.0-0.47poor value
91VANAlexander EdlerD10304397.00.7+0.73STEAL
92PHIRob BellamyF000.00.6-0.38poor value
93CBJDaniel LacostaG4—0.00.9-0.46poor value
94SJSThomas GreissG368—1.60.9+0.19fair
95LAKPaul BaierD000.00.7-0.41poor value
96CBJAndrey PlekhanovD000.00.7-0.41poor value
97DETJohan FranzenF6023705.60.6+0.70STEAL
98CGYDustin BoydF220631.00.6+0.18fair
99PITTyler KennedyF5272153.40.6+0.57STEAL
100MTLJT WymanF44110.20.6-0.22fair
101PHIR.J. AndersonD000.00.7-0.41poor value
102TBLMike LundinD252361.40.7+0.23fair
103PHXRoman TomanekF000.00.6-0.36poor value
104DALFredrik NaslundF000.00.6-0.36poor value
105FLAEvan SchaferD000.00.7-0.41poor value
106ATLChad PainchaudF000.00.5-0.35poor value
107NSHNick FugereF000.00.5-0.35poor value
109CARBrett CarsonD90130.50.7-0.11fair
110LAKNed LukacevicF000.00.5-0.35poor value
111MINRyan JonesF3341001.80.5+0.39great value
112EDMLiam ReddoxF100240.50.5-0.03fair
113TORRoman KukumbergF000.00.5-0.34poor value
114MINPatrick BordeleauF129160.40.5-0.07fair
115NYIWes O'NeillD500.00.7-0.40poor value
116STLMichal BirnerF000.00.5-0.34poor value
117MINJulien SprungerF000.00.5-0.33poor value
118CGYAki SeitsonenF000.00.5-0.33poor value
119PHXKevin PorterF249581.20.5+0.27great value
120CHIMitch MaunuD000.00.7-0.40poor value
121CGYKristopher HoggF000.00.5-0.33poor value
122OTTAlexander NikulinF300.00.5-0.32poor value
123CHIKarel HromasF000.00.5-0.32poor value
124PHIDavid LaliberteF1130.00.5-0.28poor value
125VANAndrew SarauerF000.00.5-0.32poor value
126SJSTorrey MitchellF6661522.50.5+0.51STEAL
127NYRRyan CallahanF7573865.70.5+0.73STEAL
128DETEvan McGrathF000.00.5-0.32poor value
129SJSJason ChurchillG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
130PITMichal SersenD000.00.6-0.38poor value
131CHITrevor KellF000.00.5-0.31poor value
132WSHOscar HedmanD000.00.6-0.38poor value
133CBJPetr PohlF000.00.4-0.31poor value
134BOSKris VersteegF6433584.70.4+0.69STEAL
135NYRRoman PsurnyF000.00.4-0.30poor value
136STLNikita NikitinD259762.20.6+0.44great value
137CARMagnus AkerlundG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
138WSHPasi SalonenF000.00.4-0.30poor value
139NSHKyle MoirG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
140CHIJake DowellF157330.60.4+0.09fair
141OTTJim McKenzieF000.00.4-0.30poor value
142ATLJuraj GracikF000.00.4-0.29poor value
143LAKEric NeilsonF000.00.4-0.29poor value
144PHIChris ZarbD000.00.5-0.35poor value
145BUFMichal ValentG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
146EDMBryan YoungD1700.00.5-0.32poor value
147NSHJanne NiskalaD630.10.5-0.29poor value
148NYISteve RegierF2640.10.4-0.22fair
149PHIGino PiselliniF000.00.4-0.28poor value
150MTLMikhail GrabovskiF5342964.60.4+0.70STEAL
151DETSergei KolosovD000.00.5-0.33poor value
152FLABret NasbyD000.00.5-0.33poor value
153SJSSteven ZalewskiF1000.00.4-0.26poor value
154COLRichard Demen-WillaumeD000.00.5-0.33poor value
155NJDAlexander MikhailishinD000.00.5-0.32poor value
156OTTRoman WickF700.00.4-0.27poor value
157TORDmitri VorobievD000.00.5-0.32poor value
158TBLBrandon ElliottD000.00.5-0.32poor value
159VANMike BrownF407361.00.4+0.26great value
160BOSBen WalterF2410.00.4-0.24fair
161MINJean-Claude SawyerD000.00.5-0.31poor value
162DETTyler HaskinsF000.00.4-0.28poor value
163TBLDustin CollinsF000.00.4-0.28poor value
164PITMoises GutierrezF000.00.4-0.28poor value
165CHIScott McCullochF000.00.4-0.28poor value
166WSHPeter GuggisbergF000.00.4-0.28poor value
167CBJRob PageD000.00.4-0.30poor value
168PHXKevin CormierF000.00.4-0.28poor value
169NYRJordan FooteF000.00.4-0.27poor value
170PHILadislav ScurkoF000.00.4-0.27poor value
171PHIFederik CabanaF000.00.4-0.27poor value
172ANAMatt AuffreyF000.00.4-0.27poor value
173CGYAdam PardyD342521.80.4+0.43great value
174LAKScott ParseF73300.40.4+0.03fair
175MINAaron BoogaardF000.00.4-0.27poor value
176BUFPatrick KaletaF348541.20.4+0.32great value
177EDMMax GordichukD000.00.4-0.28poor value
178NSHMike SantorelliF4061382.40.4+0.54STEAL
179NYIJaroslav MrazekD000.00.4-0.28poor value
180STLRoman PolakD8061403.60.4+0.65STEAL
181MTLLoic LacasseG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
182CGYFred WiknerF000.00.4-0.27poor value
183DALTrevor LudwigD000.00.4-0.27poor value
184COLDerek PeltierD1400.00.4-0.24fair
185NJDJosh DisherG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
186ATLDan TurpleG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
187TORRobbie EarlF4770.10.4-0.15fair
188TBLJan ZapletalD000.00.3-0.26poor value
189VANJulien Ellis-PlanteG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
190CBJLennart PetrellF95180.50.4+0.05fair
191TBLKarri RamoG159—1.40.3+0.39great value
192DETAnton AxelssonF000.00.4-0.27poor value
193NSHKevin SchaefferD000.00.3-0.25fair
194PITChris PelusoD000.00.3-0.24fair
195MINJean-Michel RizkF000.00.4-0.26poor value
196CHIPetri KontiolaF1250.10.4-0.20fair
197WSHAndrew GordonF5570.20.4-0.12fair
198CBJJustin VienneauD000.00.3-0.24fair
199PHXChad KolarikF610.00.4-0.24fair
200CGYMatt SchneiderF000.00.3-0.26poor value
201SJSMike VernaceD2210.10.3-0.18fair
202CARRyan PottruffD000.00.3-0.24fair
203ANAGabriel BouthilletteG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
204ATLMiikka TuomainenF000.00.3-0.25poor value
205LAKMike CurryF000.00.3-0.25poor value
206MINAnton KhudobinG260—1.40.3+0.40great value
207BUFMark MancariF42130.20.3-0.08fair
208EDMStephane GouletF000.00.3-0.25fair
209NSHStanislav BalanF000.00.3-0.25fair
210NYIEmil AxelssonD000.00.3-0.24fair
211STLDavid FredrikssonF000.00.3-0.25fair
212MTLJon GleedD000.00.3-0.24fair
213CGYJames SprattG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
214CHITroy BrouwerF8513635.00.3+0.74STEAL
215COLIan KeserichG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
216NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-LeblondF4130.10.3-0.18fair
217NJDTyler EckfordD710.00.3-0.22fair
218DALSergei KukushinF000.00.3-0.24fair
219OTTJoe CooperF000.00.3-0.24fair
220TORMaxim SemenovD000.00.3-0.24fair
221LAKDaniel TaylorG4—0.00.3-0.21fair
222PITJordan MorrisonF000.00.3-0.23fair
223CHIJared WalkerF000.00.3-0.23fair
224BOSMatt HunwickD5351192.80.3+0.60STEAL
225SJSDavid MacDonaldD000.00.3-0.24fair
226DETSteven CovingtonF000.00.3-0.23fair
227NYIChris CampoliD4401463.60.3+0.66STEAL
228PITDavid BrownG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
230WSHJustin MrazekG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
231CBJBrian McGuirkF000.00.3-0.22fair
232PHIMartin HouleG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
233CBJMatt GreerF000.00.3-0.22fair
234SJSDerek MacIntyreG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
235CARJonas FiedlerF000.00.3-0.22fair
236ANAMatt ChristieF000.00.3-0.22fair
237ATLMitch CarefootF000.00.3-0.22fair
238LAKYutaka FukufujiG4—0.00.3-0.24fair
239COLBrandon YipF174561.10.3+0.34great value
240PHXAaron GagnonF3850.10.3-0.10fair
241BUFMike CardD400.00.3-0.24fair
242EDMTyler SpurgeonF000.00.3-0.21fair
243NSHDenis KulyashD000.00.3-0.24fair
244NYIJason PittonF000.00.3-0.21fair
245TBLJustin KellerF000.00.3-0.21fair
246MTLGregory StewartF2610.00.3-0.16fair
247NYRJonathan PaiementD000.00.3-0.24fair
248DALLukas VomelaD000.00.3-0.24fair
249COLJ.D. CorbinF000.00.3-0.20fair
250NJDNathan PerkovichF000.00.3-0.20fair
251OTTMatthew McIlvaneF000.00.3-0.20fair
252TORJan SteberF000.00.2-0.20fair
253PHITravis GawryletzD000.00.3-0.24fair
254VANDavid SchulzD000.00.3-0.24fair
255BOSAnton HedmanF000.00.2-0.20fair
256CHIMatthew FordF000.00.2-0.20fair
257DETGennady StolyarovF000.00.2-0.20fair
258NSHPekka RinneG683—5.60.3+0.76STEAL
259PITBrian IhnacakF000.00.2-0.20fair
260CHIMarko AnttilaF000.00.2-0.20fair
261PHXWilliam EngasserF000.00.2-0.20fair
262MTLMark StreitD7864349.20.3+0.84STEAL
263WSHTravis MorinF1310.00.2-0.17fair
264LAKValtteri TenkanenF000.00.2-0.20fair
265PHXDaniel WinnikF7982513.90.2+0.71STEAL
266NYRJakub PetruzalekF210.00.2-0.19fair
267FLASpencer DillonD000.00.3-0.24fair
268CARMartin VagnerD000.00.3-0.24fair
269ANAJanne PesonenF700.00.2-0.19fair
270ATLMatthew SiddallF000.00.2-0.20fair
271CBJGrant ClitsomeD205712.00.3+0.51STEAL
272MINKyle WilsonF39130.20.2-0.03fair
273BUFDylan HunterF000.00.2-0.20fair
274EDMBjorn BjurlingG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
275NSHCraig SwitzerD000.00.3-0.24fair
276NYISylvain MichaudG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
277STLJonathan Michel BoutinF000.00.2-0.20fair
278MTLAlex Dulac-LemelinD000.00.3-0.24fair
279CGYAdam CracknellF210430.60.2+0.18fair
280DALMatt McKnightF000.00.2-0.20fair
281COLStephen McClellanD000.00.3-0.24fair
282NJDValeri KlimovD000.00.3-0.24fair
283FLALuke BeaversonD000.00.3-0.24fair
284OTTJohn WiknerF000.00.2-0.20fair
285TORPierce NortonF000.00.2-0.20fair
286PHITriston GrantF1110.00.2-0.18fair
287VANJannik HansenF6262563.80.2+0.71STEAL
288SJSBrian Mahoney-WilsonG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
289SJSChristian JensenD000.00.3-0.24fair
290DETNils BackstromD000.00.3-0.24fair
291PHIJohn CarterF000.00.2-0.20fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75