CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2005 draft class230 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1PITSidney CrosbyF1429176713.110.9+0.09fair
2ANABobby RyanF8665696.98.9-0.12fair
3CARJack JohnsonD12283427.35.7+0.12fair
4MINBenoit PouliotF6252633.97.2-0.27poor value
5MTLCarey PriceG712—7.02.6+0.42great value
6CBJGilbert BruleF299951.55.1-0.47poor value
7CHIJack SkilleF368841.75.1-0.44poor value
8SJSDevin SetoguchiF5162614.23.3+0.10fair
9OTTBrian LeeD209361.25.1-0.53BUST
10VANLuc BourdonD3620.11.5-0.54BUST
11LAKAnze KopitarF1521131610.63.3+0.49great value
12NYRMarc StaalD11362345.11.5+0.46great value
13BUFMarek ZagrapanF000.03.3-0.77BUST
14WSHSasha PokulokD000.01.5-0.61BUST
15NYIRyan O'MarraF3370.13.3-0.72BUST
16ATLAlex BourretF000.03.3-0.77BUST
17PHXMartin HanzalF6733385.43.3+0.22fair
18NSHRyan ParentD10670.41.5-0.39poor value
19DETJakub KindlD331742.21.5+0.15fair
20FLAKenndal McArdleF4230.13.2-0.72BUST
21TORTuukka RaskG564—5.51.0+0.60STEAL
22BOSMatt LashoffD74160.41.5-0.37poor value
23NJDNiclas BergforsF173831.23.2-0.36poor value
24STLT.J. OshieF10106956.23.0+0.31great value
25EDMAndrew CoglianoF12944645.52.9+0.28great value
26CGYMatt PelechD000.01.5-0.61BUST
27WSHJoe FinleyD2110.11.5-0.55BUST
28DALMatt NiskanenD9493566.91.5+0.57STEAL
29PHISteve DownieF4341962.92.3+0.10fair
30TBLVladimir MihalikD1530.11.5-0.56BUST
31ANABrendan MikkelsonD131100.51.5-0.34poor value
32FLATyler PlanteG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
33DALJames NealF8695596.71.6+0.56STEAL
34COLRyan StoaF4070.21.4-0.48poor value
35SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicD13233797.21.4+0.59STEAL
36EDMTaylor ChorneyD166220.61.4-0.25poor value
37STLScott JacksonD100.01.4-0.58BUST
38NJDJeff FrazeeG1—0.01.0-0.50poor value
39BOSPetr KalusF1150.11.2-0.50BUST
40NYRMichael SauerD98180.61.4-0.27poor value
41ATLOndrej PavelecG398—3.91.0+0.49great value
42DETJustin AbdelkaderF7392523.51.2+0.41great value
43CHIMike BlundenF127130.31.2-0.34poor value
44COLPaul StastnyF11458228.51.2+0.68STEAL
45MTLGuillaume LatendresseF3411472.31.2+0.25fair
46NYIDustin KohnD2240.11.3-0.50BUST
47COLTom FritscheF000.01.2-0.54BUST
48BUFPhilip GogullaF000.01.2-0.54BUST
49ATLChad DennyD000.01.3-0.57BUST
50LAKDany RoussinF000.01.2-0.54BUST
51VANMason RaymondF5462514.11.2+0.46great value
52COLChris DurandF000.01.2-0.54BUST
53ATLAndrew KozekF000.01.2-0.54BUST
54CHIDan BertramF000.01.2-0.54BUST
55CBJAdam McQuaidD512732.31.3+0.20fair
56NYRMarc-Andre ClicheF151140.41.2-0.30poor value
57MINMatt KassianF7650.11.2-0.45poor value
58CARNathan HagemoD000.01.3-0.57BUST
59PHXPier-Olivier PelletierG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
60LAKT.J. FastD000.01.3-0.57BUST
61PITMichael GergenF000.01.2-0.54BUST
62PITKris LetangD12448098.81.3+0.67STEAL
63ANAJason BaileyF000.01.2-0.54BUST
64CARJoe BarnesF000.01.2-0.54BUST
65MINKristofer WestblomG0—0.01.0-0.50poor value
66NYRBrodie DupontF100.01.1-0.52BUST
67CBJKris RussellD9122545.21.1+0.57STEAL
68CHIEvan BropheyF400.01.0-0.51BUST
69CGYGord BaldwinD000.01.0-0.49poor value
70OTTVitaly AnikeyenkoD000.00.9-0.48poor value
71DALRich CluneF139220.51.0-0.17fair
72LAKJonathan QuickG829—6.01.0+0.63STEAL
73TBLRadek SmolenakF710.00.9-0.46poor value
74CGYDan RyderF000.00.9-0.47poor value
75DALPerttu LindgrenF100.00.9-0.47poor value
76NYIShea GuthrieF000.00.9-0.46poor value
77NYRDalyn FlattD000.00.8-0.44poor value
78NSHTeemu LaaksoD1700.00.8-0.41poor value
79NSHCody FransonD5502125.10.8+0.63STEAL
80DETChristofer LofbergF000.00.8-0.44poor value
81EDMDanny SyvretD5970.30.8-0.25fair
82TORPhil OreskovicD1020.10.7-0.38poor value
83BOSMikko LehtonenF200.00.7-0.42poor value
84NJDMark FraserD219221.10.7+0.12fair
85STLBen BishopG413—3.61.0+0.47great value
86EDMRobby DeeF000.00.7-0.41poor value
87BUFMarc-Andre GragnaniD78180.50.7-0.09fair
88COLT.J. HensickF112380.60.6-0.03fair
89TBLChris LawrenceF000.00.6-0.39poor value
90FLADan CollinsF000.00.6-0.38poor value
91PHIOskars BartulisD6690.30.7-0.20fair
92TBLMarek BartanusF000.00.6-0.38poor value
93FLAOlivier LegaultF000.00.6-0.38poor value
94CARJakub VojtaD000.00.7-0.41poor value
95OTTCody BassF7550.10.6-0.26poor value
96BUFChris ButlerD407862.70.7+0.46great value
97EDMChris VandeVeldeF278481.10.6+0.18fair
98OTTIlya ZubovF1120.00.6-0.33poor value
99NJDPatrick DavisF910.00.6-0.34poor value
100BOSJonathan SigaletD100.00.7-0.41poor value
101CBJJared BollF579661.50.6+0.30great value
102TBLBlair JonesF132170.40.6-0.07fair
103DETMattias RitolaF4390.20.6-0.23fair
104FLAMatt DuffyD000.00.7-0.41poor value
105PHXKeith YandleD11096199.40.7+0.78STEAL
106BOSVladimir SobotkaF5481712.40.5+0.47great value
107NYRTom PyattF4451011.70.5+0.36great value
108CHINiklas HjalmarssonD8211724.60.7+0.62STEAL
109WSHAndrew ThomasD000.00.7-0.41poor value
110MINKyle BaileyF000.00.5-0.35poor value
111CGYJ.D. WattF000.00.5-0.34poor value
112SJSAlex StalockG179—0.80.6+0.10fair
113CHINathan DavisF000.00.5-0.34poor value
114VANAlexandre VincentG0—0.00.5-0.35poor value
115OTTJanne KolehmainenF000.00.5-0.34poor value
116ATLJordan Lavallee-SmothermanF420.00.5-0.31poor value
117CHIDenis IstominF000.00.5-0.33poor value
118WSHPatrick McNeillD000.00.7-0.41poor value
119PHIJeremy DuchesneG1—0.00.4-0.31poor value
120EDMViacheslav TrukhnoF000.00.5-0.33poor value
121MTLJuraj MikusF000.00.5-0.33poor value
122MINMorten MadsenF000.00.5-0.33poor value
123CAROndrej OtcenasF000.00.5-0.32poor value
124COLRay MaciasD810.00.7-0.36poor value
125PITTommi LeinonenD000.00.6-0.39poor value
126PITTim CrowderF000.00.5-0.32poor value
127ANABobby BoltF000.00.5-0.32poor value
128CGYKevin LalandeG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
129MINAnthony AielloD000.00.6-0.38poor value
130MTLMathieu AubinF000.00.5-0.31poor value
131CBJTomas PopperleG2—0.00.3-0.24fair
132DETDarren HelmF8232663.00.4+0.58STEAL
133TBLStanislav LascekF000.00.4-0.31poor value
134CHIBrennan TurnerD000.00.6-0.37poor value
135ATLTomas PospisilF000.00.4-0.30poor value
136OTTTomas KudelkaD000.00.6-0.37poor value
137DETJohan RynoF000.00.4-0.30poor value
138VANMatt ButcherF000.00.4-0.30poor value
139LAKPatrik HersleyD000.00.6-0.36poor value
140SJSTaylor DakersG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
141ANABrian SalcidoD210.00.6-0.34poor value
142BUFNathan GerbeF4351512.50.4+0.53STEAL
143WSHDaren MachesneyG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
144NYIMasi MarjamakiF100.00.4-0.29poor value
145CARTimothy KunesD000.00.5-0.35poor value
146DALTom WandellF229430.90.4+0.22fair
147NYRTrevor KoverkoD000.00.5-0.34poor value
148PHXAnton KrysanovF000.00.4-0.28poor value
149SJSDerek JoslinD116160.50.5+0.01fair
150NSHCal O'ReillyF145490.80.4+0.19fair
151DETJeff MayD000.00.5-0.33poor value
152PHIJosh BeaulieuF000.00.4-0.28poor value
153TORAlex BerryF000.00.4-0.28poor value
154BOSWacey RabbitF000.00.4-0.28poor value
155NJDMark FayneD389652.30.5+0.49great value
156STLRyan ReavesF9621401.20.4+0.31great value
157EDMFredrik PetterssonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
158CGYMatt KeetleyG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
159CARRisto KorhonenD000.00.5-0.32poor value
160DALMatt WatkinsF100.00.4-0.28poor value
161FLABrian FosterG1—0.00.3-0.24fair
162SJSPaul FentonF000.00.4-0.28poor value
163TBLMarek KvapilF000.00.4-0.28poor value
164FLARoman DerlyukD000.00.4-0.31poor value
165TBLKevin BeechG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
166COLJason LynchD000.00.4-0.30poor value
167CHIJoe FallonG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
168COLJustin MercierF920.00.4-0.25fair
169STLMike GauthierD000.00.4-0.30poor value
170NJDSean ZimmermanD000.00.4-0.29poor value
171STLNick DrazenovicF1200.00.4-0.25fair
172BOSLukas VantuchF000.00.4-0.27poor value
173TORJohan DahlbergF000.00.4-0.27poor value
174PHIJohn FlattersD000.00.4-0.29poor value
175DETJuho MielonenD000.00.4-0.28poor value
176NSHRyan MakiF000.00.4-0.27poor value
177CBJDerek ReinhartD000.00.4-0.28poor value
178NYRGreg BellerF000.00.4-0.27poor value
179CGYBrett SutterF60100.20.4-0.12fair
180NYITyrell MasonD000.00.4-0.27poor value
181WSHTim KennedyF162390.80.4+0.19fair
182BUFAdam DennisG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
183SJSWilliam ColbertD000.00.4-0.27poor value
184LAKRyan McGinnisD000.00.4-0.27poor value
185VANKris FredheimD300.00.4-0.26poor value
186OTTDimitri MegalinskyD000.00.4-0.26poor value
187ATLAndrey ZubarevD410.00.3-0.23fair
188CHIJoe CharleboisD000.00.3-0.26poor value
189CBJKirill StarkovF000.00.4-0.27poor value
190MTLMatt D'AgostiniF3241071.90.4+0.47great value
191BUFVjateslav BuravchikovD000.00.3-0.25poor value
192CARNicolas BlanchardF900.00.4-0.24fair
193SJSTony LuciaF000.00.4-0.27poor value
194PITJean-Philippe PaquetD000.00.3-0.24fair
195PITJoe VitaleF234440.90.4+0.25great value
196NYINicholas TuzzolinoD000.00.3-0.24fair
197ANAJean-Philippe LevasseurG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
198CARKyle LawsonD000.00.3-0.24fair
199MINRiley EmmersonD000.00.3-0.24fair
200MTLSergei KostitsynF3531762.80.3+0.60STEAL
201CBJTrevor HendrikxD000.00.3-0.24fair
202CHIDavid KuchejdaF000.00.3-0.26poor value
203CHIAdam HobsonF000.00.3-0.26poor value
204OTTColin GreeningF2861021.90.3+0.49great value
205VANMario BliznakF610.00.3-0.24fair
206LAKJosh MeyersD000.00.3-0.24fair
207ATLMyles StoeszD000.00.3-0.24fair
208BUFMatt GenerousD000.00.3-0.24fair
209WSHViktor DovganD000.00.3-0.24fair
210NYILuciano AquinoF000.00.3-0.25fair
211NYRRyan RussellF4120.10.3-0.15fair
212PHXPat BrosnihanF000.00.3-0.24fair
213NSHScott ToddD000.00.3-0.24fair
214DETBretton StamlerD000.00.3-0.24fair
215PHIMatt ClacksonF000.00.3-0.24fair
216TORAnton StralmanD9382935.40.3+0.76STEAL
217BOSBrock BradfordF000.00.3-0.24fair
218NJDAlexander SundstromF000.00.3-0.24fair
219STLNikolai LemtyugovF000.00.3-0.24fair
220EDMMatthew GlasserF000.00.3-0.24fair
221CGYMyles RumseyD000.00.3-0.24fair
222COLKyle CumiskeyD139350.90.3+0.27great value
223DALPat McGannG0—0.00.3-0.24fair
224FLAZach BearsonF000.00.3-0.23fair
225TBLJohn WessbeckerD000.00.3-0.24fair
226LAKJohn SeymourF000.00.3-0.23fair
227BUFAndrew OrpikD000.00.3-0.24fair
228TORChad RauF920.00.3-0.19fair
229MTLPhillipe PaquetD000.00.3-0.24fair
230NSHPatric HornqvistF9015435.30.3+0.76STEAL

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75