NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2007 draft class211 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	CHI	Patrick Kane	F	1378	1405	12.6	10.9	+0.07	fair
2	PHI	James van Riemsdyk	F	1154	696	6.6	8.9	-0.14	fair
3	PHX	Kyle Turris	F	776	425	6.0	7.3	-0.08	fair
4	LAK	Thomas Hickey	D	456	117	3.2	5.7	-0.25	fair
5	WSH	Karl Alzner	D	686	130	4.5	5.7	-0.10	fair
6	EDM	Sam Gagner	F	1043	529	7.0	5.1	+0.15	fair
7	CBJ	Jakub Voracek	F	1058	806	9.1	5.1	+0.27	great value
8	BOS	Zach Hamill	F	20	4	0.1	3.3	-0.74	BUST
9	SJS	Logan Couture	F	933	701	7.3	3.3	+0.34	great value
10	FLA	Keaton Ellerby	D	212	27	1.0	1.5	-0.14	fair
11	CAR	Brandon Sutter	F	770	289	4.8	3.3	+0.16	fair
12	MTL	Ryan McDonagh	D	1066	442	7.1	1.5	+0.58	STEAL
13	STL	Lars Eller	F	1193	444	4.5	3.3	+0.14	fair
14	COL	Kevin Shattenkirk	D	952	484	7.8	1.5	+0.61	STEAL
15	EDM	Alex Plante	D	10	2	0.1	1.5	-0.57	BUST
16	MIN	Colton Gillies	F	154	18	0.5	3.3	-0.59	BUST
17	NYR	Alexei Cherepanov	F	0	0	0.0	3.3	-0.77	BUST
18	STL	Ian Cole	D	999	233	3.2	1.5	+0.29	great value
19	ANA	Logan Macmillan	F	0	0	0.0	3.2	-0.76	BUST
20	PIT	Angelo Esposito	F	0	0	0.0	3.2	-0.76	BUST
21	EDM	Riley Nash	F	628	176	2.7	3.2	-0.07	fair
22	MTL	Max Pacioretty	F	939	681	7.2	3.2	+0.35	great value
23	NSH	Jonathon Blum	D	110	24	0.8	1.5	-0.22	fair
24	CGY	Mikael Backlund	F	1155	608	5.1	3.0	+0.22	fair
25	VAN	Patrick White	F	0	0	0.0	2.9	-0.74	BUST
26	STL	David Perron	F	1239	812	7.2	2.8	+0.41	great value
27	DET	Brendan Smith	D	741	146	2.8	1.5	+0.23	fair
28	SJS	Nick Petrecki	D	1	0	0.0	1.5	-0.60	BUST
29	OTT	Jim O'Brien	F	77	13	0.4	2.3	-0.53	BUST
30	PHX	Nick Ross	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
31	BUF	TJ Brennan	D	53	13	0.5	1.5	-0.34	poor value
32	PHX	Brett MacLean	F	18	5	0.1	1.7	-0.59	BUST
33	VAN	Taylor Ellington	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
34	WSH	Josh Godfrey	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
35	BOS	Tommy Cross	D	3	1	0.0	1.4	-0.58	BUST
36	PHX	Joel Gistedt	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
37	CBJ	Stefan Legein	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
38	CHI	Bill Sweatt	F	3	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
39	STL	Simon Hjalmarsson	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
40	FLA	Michal Repik	F	72	20	0.3	1.2	-0.34	poor value
41	PHI	Kevin Marshall	D	10	0	0.0	1.4	-0.57	BUST
42	ANA	Eric Tangradi	F	150	16	0.5	1.2	-0.27	poor value
43	MTL	P.K. Subban	D	834	467	9.3	1.3	+0.68	STEAL
44	STL	Aaron Palushaj	F	68	14	0.3	1.2	-0.34	poor value
45	COL	Colby Cohen	D	3	0	0.0	1.3	-0.56	BUST
46	WSH	Theo Ruth	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
47	TBL	Dana Tyrell	F	135	24	0.6	1.2	-0.23	fair
48	NYR	Antoine Lafleur	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
49	COL	Trevor Cann	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
50	DAL	Nico Sacchetti	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
51	PIT	Keven Veilleux	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
52	LAK	Oscar Moller	F	87	26	0.4	1.2	-0.29	poor value
53	CBJ	Will Weber	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
54	NSH	Jeremy Smith	G	10	—	0.1	1.0	-0.46	poor value
55	COL	TJ Galiardi	F	321	105	2.0	1.2	+0.19	fair
56	CHI	Akim Aliu	F	7	3	0.0	1.2	-0.51	BUST
57	NJD	Mike Hoeffel	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
58	NSH	Nick Spaling	F	437	124	2.5	1.2	+0.28	great value
59	BUF	Drew Schiestel	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
60	OTT	Ruslan Bashkirov	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
61	LAK	Wayne Simmonds	F	1037	526	7.3	1.2	+0.64	STEAL
62	NYI	Mark Katic	D	11	1	0.0	1.3	-0.53	BUST
63	ANA	Maxime Macenauer	F	29	4	0.1	1.2	-0.48	poor value
64	DAL	Sergei Korostin	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
65	MTL	Olivier Fortier	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.53	BUST
66	PHI	Garrett Klotz	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.52	BUST
67	ATL	Spencer Machacek	F	25	9	0.1	1.1	-0.43	poor value
68	CBJ	Jake Hansen	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.51	BUST
69	CHI	Maxime Tanguay	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	BUST
70	CGY	John Negrin	D	3	1	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
71	FLA	Evgenii Dadonov	F	641	362	2.0	1.0	+0.27	great value
72	CAR	Drayson Bowman	F	179	33	0.8	0.9	-0.07	fair
73	MTL	Yannick Weber	D	499	94	2.5	0.8	+0.40	great value
74	TOR	Dale Mitchell	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
75	TBL	Luca Cunti	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
76	NYI	Jason Gregoire	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.46	poor value
77	TBL	Alex Killorn	F	1039	574	4.2	0.8	+0.56	STEAL
78	PIT	Robert Bortuzzo	D	577	76	1.7	0.8	+0.26	great value
79	NJD	Nick Palmieri	F	87	25	0.4	0.8	-0.16	fair
80	PIT	Casey Pierro-Zabotel	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
81	NSH	Ryan Thang	F	1	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
82	LAK	Bryan Cameron	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
83	SJS	Timo Pielmeier	G	1	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
84	WSH	Phil Desimone	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
85	STL	Brett Sonne	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
86	CHI	Josh Unice	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
87	NJD	Corbin McPherson	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
88	DET	Joakim Andersson	F	205	36	0.9	0.6	+0.09	fair
89	BUF	Corey Tropp	F	149	27	0.5	0.6	-0.06	fair
90	OTT	Louie Caporusso	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
91	SJS	Tyson Sexsmith	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
92	ANA	Justin Vaive	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
93	ANA	Steven Kampfer	D	231	39	1.0	0.7	+0.13	fair
94	CBJ	Maksim Mayorov	F	22	3	0.1	0.6	-0.32	poor value
95	LAK	Alec Martinez	D	862	289	4.8	0.7	+0.63	STEAL
96	STL	Cade Fairchild	D	5	1	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
97	EDM	Linus Omark	F	79	32	0.5	0.6	-0.03	fair
98	ANA	Sebastian Stefaniszin	G	0	—	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
99	TOR	Matt Frattin	F	135	35	0.8	0.6	+0.08	fair
100	STL	Travis Erstad	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
101	FLA	Matt Rust	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
102	CAR	Justin McCrae	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
103	PHX	Vladimir Ruzicka	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
104	TOR	Ben Winnett	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
105	COL	Brad Malone	F	217	32	0.6	0.5	+0.04	fair
106	NYI	Maxim Gratchev	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
107	TBL	Mitch Fadden	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
108	WSH	Brett Bruneteau	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
109	LAK	Dwight King	F	365	109	2.1	0.5	+0.44	great value
110	MIN	Justin Falk	D	279	33	1.3	0.7	+0.21	fair
111	PIT	Luca Caputi	F	35	9	0.2	0.5	-0.21	fair
112	DAL	Colton Sceviour	F	535	156	2.1	0.5	+0.44	great value
113	COL	Kent Patterson	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
114	NSH	Ben Ryan	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
115	ATL	Niklas Lucenius	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
116	CGY	Keith Aulie	D	167	14	0.8	0.7	+0.04	fair
117	NJD	Matt Halischuk	F	280	75	1.4	0.5	+0.31	great value
118	PIT	Alex Grant	D	7	2	0.0	0.7	-0.37	poor value
119	NSH	Mark Santorelli	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
120	OTT	Ben Blood	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
121	ANA	Mattias Modig	G	0	—	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
122	PHI	Mario Kempe	F	70	13	0.3	0.5	-0.13	fair
123	PHX	Maxim Goncharov	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
124	LAK	Linden Rowat	G	0	—	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
125	WSH	Brett Leffler	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
126	CHI	Joe Lavin	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
127	EDM	Milan Kytnar	F	1	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
128	DAL	Austin Smith	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
129	DAL	Jamie Benn	F	1260	994	9.1	0.5	+0.82	STEAL
130	BOS	Denis Reul	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
131	FLA	John Lee	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
132	CAR	Chris Terry	F	152	38	0.7	0.4	+0.11	fair
133	MTL	Joe Stejskal	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
134	TOR	Juraj Mikus	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
135	COL	Paul Carey	F	100	16	0.3	0.4	-0.07	fair
136	DAL	Ondrej Roman	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
137	LAK	Joshua Turnbull	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
138	NYR	Max Campbell	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
139	BUF	Bradley Eidsness	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
140	MIN	Cody Almond	F	25	2	0.1	0.4	-0.25	fair
141	PIT	Jake Muzzin	D	683	294	5.6	0.6	+0.70	STEAL
142	MTL	Andrew Conboy	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
143	CGY	Mickey Renaud	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
144	NSH	Andreas Thuresson	F	25	3	0.1	0.4	-0.23	fair
145	VAN	Charles-Antoine Messier	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
146	VAN	Ilja Kablukov	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
147	BUF	Jean-Simon Allard	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
148	DET	Randy Cameron	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
149	DAL	Michael Neal	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
150	TBL	Matt Marshall	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
151	ANA	Brett Morrison	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
152	PHI	Jon Kalinski	F	22	5	0.1	0.4	-0.22	fair
153	PHX	Scott Darling	G	126	—	1.6	0.3	+0.44	great value
154	WSH	Dan Dunn	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
155	COL	Jens Hellgren	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
156	CHI	Richard Greenop	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
157	EDM	William Quist	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
158	CBJ	Allen York	G	11	—	0.1	0.3	-0.19	fair
159	BOS	Alain Goulet	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
160	STL	Anthony Peluso	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
161	PHI	Patrick Maroon	F	848	323	3.2	0.4	+0.61	STEAL
162	CAR	Brett Bellemore	D	121	20	0.7	0.4	+0.10	fair
163	MTL	Nichlas Torp	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
164	TOR	Christopher DiDomenico	F	27	10	0.1	0.4	-0.15	fair
165	SJS	Patrik Zackrisson	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
166	NYI	Blake Kessel	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
167	TBL	Johan Harju	F	10	3	0.0	0.4	-0.24	fair
168	NYR	Carl Hagelin	F	713	296	4.1	0.4	+0.68	STEAL
169	BOS	Radim Ostrcil	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
170	MIN	Harri Ilvonen	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
171	PIT	Dustin Jeffrey	F	131	33	0.7	0.4	+0.14	fair
172	DAL	Luke Gazdic	F	147	8	0.2	0.4	-0.09	fair
173	SJS	Nick Bonino	F	868	358	4.1	0.4	+0.68	STEAL
174	NSH	Robert Dietrich	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
175	ATL	John Albert	F	9	1	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
176	VAN	Taylor Matson	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
177	NJD	Vili Sopanen	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
178	DET	Zack Torquato	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
179	BUF	Paul Byron	F	521	208	2.8	0.4	+0.58	STEAL
180	WSH	Justin Taylor	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
181	FLA	Corey Syvret	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
182	PHI	Brad Phillips	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
183	TBL	Torrie Jung	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
184	LAK	Josh Kidd	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
185	WSH	Nick Larson	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
186	CGY	C.J. Severyn	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
187	BUF	Nick Eno	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
188	LAK	Matt Fillier	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
189	BOS	Jordan Knackstedt	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
190	STL	Trevor Nill	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
191	FLA	Ryan Watson	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
192	MTL	Scott Kishel	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
193	NYR	David Skokan	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
194	TOR	Carl Gunnarsson	D	629	138	4.1	0.3	+0.69	STEAL
195	COL	Johan Alcen	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
196	NYI	Simon Lacroix	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
197	TBL	Michael Ward	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
198	NYR	Danny Hobbs	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
199	WSH	Andrew Glass	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
200	MIN	Carson McMillan	F	16	5	0.1	0.3	-0.19	fair
201	SJS	Justin Braun	D	842	199	4.6	0.3	+0.72	STEAL
202	FLA	Sergei Gayduchenko	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
203	SJS	Frazer McLaren	F	102	11	0.3	0.3	-0.06	fair
204	NSH	Atte Engren	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
205	ATL	Paul Postma	D	205	35	1.1	0.3	+0.33	great value
206	VAN	Dan Gendur	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
207	NJD	Ryan Molle	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
208	DET	Bryan Rufenach	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
209	BUF	Drew MacKenzie	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
210	TBL	Justin Courtnall	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
211	CBJ	Trent Vogelhuber	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75