NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2009 draft class211 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	NYI	John Tavares	F	1273	1192	11.7	10.9	+0.03	fair
2	TBL	Victor Hedman	D	1172	814	11.8	7.9	+0.19	fair
3	COL	Matt Duchene	F	1195	936	9.0	7.3	+0.10	fair
4	ATL	Evander Kane	F	1001	648	8.2	7.2	+0.06	fair
5	LAK	Brayden Schenn	F	1110	729	7.3	5.9	+0.10	fair
6	PHX	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	D	1146	539	9.6	5.7	+0.24	fair
7	TOR	Nazem Kadri	F	1070	766	6.8	5.1	+0.13	fair
8	DAL	Scott Glennie	F	1	0	0.0	3.3	-0.77	BUST
9	OTT	Jared Cowen	D	249	46	1.5	5.1	-0.46	poor value
10	EDM	Magnus Paajarvi	F	467	124	2.5	3.3	-0.13	fair
11	NSH	Ryan Ellis	D	566	275	6.4	1.5	+0.54	STEAL
12	NYI	Calvin de Haan	D	679	149	3.3	1.5	+0.30	great value
13	BUF	Zack Kassian	F	661	203	3.3	3.3	-0.01	fair
14	FLA	Dmitry Kulikov	D	1046	249	5.5	1.5	+0.49	great value
15	ANA	Peter Holland	F	266	85	1.5	3.3	-0.31	poor value
16	MIN	Nick Leddy	D	1074	423	8.4	1.5	+0.63	STEAL
17	STL	David Rundblad	D	113	25	0.7	1.5	-0.27	poor value
18	MTL	Louis Leblanc	F	50	10	0.2	3.2	-0.68	BUST
19	NYR	Chris Kreider	F	966	636	5.3	3.2	+0.22	fair
20	NJD	Jacob Josefson	F	315	64	1.4	3.2	-0.33	poor value
21	CBJ	John Moore	D	544	118	3.6	1.5	+0.33	great value
22	VAN	Jordan Schroeder	F	165	42	0.8	3.2	-0.47	poor value
23	CGY	Tim Erixon	D	93	14	0.6	1.5	-0.31	poor value
24	WSH	Marcus Johansson	F	1058	566	6.1	3.0	+0.30	great value
25	BOS	Jordan Caron	F	157	28	0.6	2.9	-0.51	BUST
26	ANA	Kyle Palmieri	F	933	548	5.6	2.8	+0.30	great value
27	CAR	Philippe Paradis	F	0	0	0.0	2.6	-0.72	BUST
28	CHI	Dylan Olsen	D	124	22	0.6	1.5	-0.28	poor value
29	TBL	Carter Ashton	F	54	3	0.1	2.3	-0.65	BUST
30	PIT	Simon Despres	D	193	43	1.3	1.5	-0.06	fair
31	NYI	Mikko Koskinen	G	168	—	1.6	1.0	+0.16	fair
32	DET	Landon Ferraro	F	77	12	0.3	1.7	-0.49	poor value
33	COL	Ryan O'Reilly	F	1241	905	9.5	1.6	+0.66	STEAL
34	ATL	Carl Klingberg	F	12	1	0.0	1.4	-0.57	BUST
35	LAK	Kyle Clifford	F	753	144	2.9	1.2	+0.33	great value
36	PHX	Chris Brown	F	23	3	0.1	1.2	-0.50	BUST
37	ANA	Mat Clark	D	9	1	0.0	1.4	-0.56	BUST
38	DAL	Alex Chiasson	F	651	233	3.5	1.2	+0.41	great value
39	OTT	Jakob Silfverberg	F	820	373	5.2	1.2	+0.54	STEAL
40	EDM	Anton Lander	F	215	35	0.8	1.2	-0.13	fair
41	NSH	Zach Budish	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
42	NSH	Charles-Olivier Roussel	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
43	SJS	William Wrenn	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
44	FLA	Drew Shore	F	98	26	0.7	1.2	-0.19	fair
45	ATL	Jeremy Morin	F	82	22	0.4	1.2	-0.32	poor value
46	OTT	Robin Lehner	G	364	—	4.4	1.0	+0.53	STEAL
47	NYR	Ethan Werek	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
48	STL	Brett Ponich	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
49	COL	Stefan Elliott	D	87	25	0.7	1.3	-0.20	fair
50	TOR	Kenny Ryan	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
51	CAR	Brian Dumoulin	D	794	195	3.0	1.3	+0.31	great value
52	TBL	Richard Panik	F	521	195	3.3	1.2	+0.39	great value
53	VAN	Anton Rodin	F	3	1	0.0	1.2	-0.53	BUST
54	NJD	Eric Gelinas	D	189	55	1.3	1.3	-0.00	fair
55	WSH	Dmitry Orlov	D	957	367	5.3	1.3	+0.52	STEAL
56	CBJ	Kevin Lynch	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
57	SJS	Taylor Doherty	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
58	TOR	Jesse Blacker	D	1	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
59	CHI	Brandon Pirri	F	276	121	1.8	1.2	+0.16	fair
60	DET	Tomas Tatar	F	927	496	5.7	1.2	+0.57	STEAL
61	PIT	Philip Samuelsson	D	13	0	0.0	1.3	-0.55	BUST
62	NYI	Anders Nilsson	G	161	—	1.6	1.0	+0.18	fair
63	PIT	Ben Hanowski	F	16	3	0.1	1.2	-0.49	poor value
64	COL	Tyson Barrie	D	822	508	8.7	1.2	+0.69	STEAL
65	MTL	Joonas Nattinen	F	1	0	0.0	1.1	-0.53	BUST
66	BUF	Brayden McNabb	D	895	197	3.3	1.1	+0.40	great value
67	FLA	Josh Birkholz	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.52	BUST
68	TOR	Jamie Devane	F	2	0	0.0	1.0	-0.51	BUST
69	DAL	Reilly Smith	F	988	579	5.9	1.0	+0.62	STEAL
70	NSH	Taylor Beck	F	92	23	0.5	1.0	-0.20	fair
71	EDM	Troy Hesketh	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
72	NSH	Michael Latta	F	113	17	0.3	0.9	-0.27	poor value
73	NJD	Alexander Urbom	D	34	4	0.1	0.8	-0.34	poor value
74	CGY	Ryan Howse	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
75	DET	Andrej Nestrasil	F	128	48	0.8	0.9	-0.04	fair
76	ANA	Igor Bobkov	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
77	MIN	Matt Hackett	G	26	—	0.2	1.0	-0.39	poor value
78	STL	Sergey Andronov	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
79	MTL	Mac Bennett	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
80	NYR	Ryan Bourque	F	1	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
81	PHI	Adam Morrison	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
82	EDM	Cameron Abney	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
83	VAN	Kevin Connauton	D	360	80	2.0	0.7	+0.34	great value
84	LAK	Nicolas Deslauriers	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
85	WSH	Cody Eakin	F	701	256	4.4	0.7	+0.61	STEAL
86	BOS	Ryan Button	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
87	PHI	Simon Bertilsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
88	CAR	Mattias Lindstrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
89	CHI	Dan Delisle	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
90	DET	Gleason Fournier	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
91	PHX	Michael Lee	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
92	NYI	Casey Cizikas	F	986	282	3.5	0.6	+0.56	STEAL
93	TBL	Alex Hutchings	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
94	CBJ	David Savard	D	870	242	4.8	0.7	+0.63	STEAL
95	LAK	J-F Berube	G	40	—	0.2	0.9	-0.32	poor value
96	LAK	Linden Vey	F	138	44	0.8	0.6	+0.07	fair
97	PHX	Jordan Szwarz	F	50	7	0.2	0.6	-0.25	fair
98	NSH	Craig Smith	F	987	452	5.8	0.6	+0.71	STEAL
99	EDM	Kyle Bigos	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
100	OTT	Chris Wideman	D	291	78	1.1	0.7	+0.14	fair
101	EDM	Toni Rajala	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
102	NSH	Mattias Ekholm	D	974	404	5.7	0.7	+0.68	STEAL
103	MIN	Kristopher Foucault	F	1	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
104	BUF	Marcus Foligno	F	935	336	3.9	0.6	+0.61	STEAL
105	PHX	Justin Weller	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
106	ANA	Sami Vatanen	D	473	200	4.8	0.7	+0.63	STEAL
107	FLA	Garrett Wilson	F	89	8	0.2	0.5	-0.20	fair
108	STL	Tyler Shattock	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
109	MTL	Alexander Avtsin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
110	NSH	Nick Oliver	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
111	CGY	Henrik Bjorklund	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
112	BOS	Lane MacDermid	F	21	4	0.1	0.5	-0.28	poor value
113	VAN	Jeremy Price	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
114	NJD	Seth Helgeson	D	50	4	0.2	0.7	-0.28	poor value
115	WSH	Patrick Wey	D	9	3	0.1	0.7	-0.36	poor value
116	MIN	Alex Fallstrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
117	ATL	Edward Pasquale	G	3	—	0.0	0.5	-0.29	poor value
118	TOR	Forfeited	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
119	CHI	Byron Froese	F	141	20	0.4	0.5	-0.04	fair
120	ATL	Ben Chiarot	D	813	186	2.9	0.7	+0.48	great value
121	PIT	Nick Petersen	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
122	NYI	Anton Klementyev	D	1	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
123	PIT	Alex Velischek	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
124	COL	Kieran Millan	G	0	—	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
125	ATL	Cody Sol	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
126	LAK	David Kolomatis	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
127	NYR	Roman Horak	F	84	19	0.4	0.5	-0.01	fair
128	TOR	Eric Knodel	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
129	DAL	Tomas Vincour	F	95	17	0.4	0.5	-0.05	fair
130	OTT	Mike Hoffman	F	745	487	5.7	0.5	+0.73	STEAL
131	CAR	Matt Kennedy	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
132	NSH	Gabriel Bourque	F	413	103	2.0	0.4	+0.46	great value
133	EDM	Olivier Roy	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
134	BUF	Mark Adams	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
135	FLA	Corban Knight	F	52	12	0.2	0.4	-0.15	fair
136	ANA	Radoslav Illo	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
137	CBJ	Thomas Larkin	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
138	FLA	Wade Megan	F	15	2	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
139	MTL	Gabriel Dumont	F	90	9	0.3	0.4	-0.09	fair
140	NYR	Scott Stajcer	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
141	CGY	Spencer Bennett	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
142	PHI	Nicola Riopel	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
143	VAN	Peter Andersson	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
144	NJD	Derek Rodwell	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
145	WSH	Brett Flemming	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
146	OTT	Jeff Costello	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
147	SJS	Phil Varone	F	97	17	0.3	0.4	-0.04	fair
148	TBL	Michael Zador	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
149	CHI	Marcus Kruger	F	520	123	2.6	0.4	+0.55	STEAL
150	DET	Nick Jensen	D	694	172	2.3	0.5	+0.47	great value
151	PIT	Andy Bathgate	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
152	NYI	Anders Lee	F	932	554	4.8	0.4	+0.71	STEAL
153	PHI	Dave Labrecque	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
154	COL	Brandon Maxwell	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
155	ATL	Jimmy Bubnick	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
156	LAK	Michael Pelech	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
157	PHX	Evan Bloodoff	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
158	TOR	Jerry D'Amigo	F	31	3	0.1	0.4	-0.21	fair
159	DAL	Curtis McKenzie	F	99	23	0.4	0.4	+0.02	fair
160	OTT	Corey Cowick	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
161	MIN	Darcy Kuemper	G	493	—	3.1	0.3	+0.63	STEAL
162	TBL	Jaroslav Janus	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
163	MIN	Jere Sallinen	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
164	BUF	Connor Knapp	G	2	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
165	FLA	Scott Timmins	F	24	1	0.1	0.4	-0.22	fair
166	ANA	Scott Valentine	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
167	CBJ	Anton Blomqvist	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
168	STL	David Shields	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
169	MTL	Dustin Walsh	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
170	NYR	Dan Maggio	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
171	CGY	Joni Ortio	G	37	—	0.3	0.3	+0.01	fair
172	PHI	Eric Wellwood	F	31	10	0.2	0.4	-0.14	fair
173	VAN	Joe Cannata	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
174	NJD	Ashton Bernard	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
175	WSH	Garrett Mitchell	F	1	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
176	BOS	Tyler Randell	F	27	6	0.1	0.4	-0.19	fair
177	CHI	David Pacan	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
178	CAR	Rasmus Rissanen	D	6	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
179	LAK	Brandon Kozun	F	20	4	0.1	0.4	-0.21	fair
180	DET	Mitch Callahan	F	5	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
181	PIT	Viktor Ekbom	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
182	MIN	Erik Haula	F	846	378	3.2	0.4	+0.62	STEAL
183	TBL	Kirill Gotovets	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
184	COL	Gus Young	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
185	ATL	Levko Koper	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
186	LAK	Jordan Nolan	F	375	52	1.2	0.4	+0.33	great value
187	VAN	Steven Anthony	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
188	TOR	Barron Smith	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
189	SJS	Marek Viedensky	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
190	OTT	Brad Peltz	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
191	OTT	Michael Sdao	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
192	NSH	Cameron Reid	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
193	MIN	Anthony Hamburg	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
194	BUF	Maxime Legault	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
195	CHI	Paul Phillips	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
196	PHI	Oliver Lauridsen	D	16	3	0.1	0.3	-0.12	fair
197	CBJ	Kyle Neuber	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
198	LAK	Nic Dowd	F	667	199	1.5	0.4	+0.41	great value
199	MTL	Michael Cichy	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
200	NYR	Mikhail Pashnin	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
201	CGY	Gaelan Patterson	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
202	STL	Maxwell Tardy	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
203	ATL	Jordan Samuels-Thomas	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
204	NJD	Curtis Gedig	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
205	WSH	Benjamin Casavant	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
206	BOS	Ben Sexton	F	2	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
207	SJS	Dominik Bielke	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
208	CAR	Tommi Kivisto	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
209	CHI	David Gilbert	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
210	DET	Adam Almquist	D	2	1	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
211	MTL	Petteri Simila	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75