NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2010 draft class209 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	EDM	Taylor Hall	F	997	792	9.6	10.9	-0.06	fair
2	BOS	Tyler Seguin	F	1024	830	9.7	8.9	+0.04	fair
3	FLA	Erik Gudbranson	D	848	141	3.7	5.7	-0.19	fair
4	CBJ	Ryan Johansen	F	905	578	7.9	7.2	+0.04	fair
5	NYI	Nino Niederreiter	F	1035	499	5.7	5.9	-0.01	fair
6	TBL	Brett Connolly	F	536	195	3.1	5.1	-0.21	fair
7	CAR	Jeff Skinner	F	1110	712	8.2	5.1	+0.22	fair
8	ATL	Alexander Burmistrov	F	348	101	2.1	3.3	-0.19	fair
9	MIN	Mikael Granlund	F	966	659	6.8	3.3	+0.31	great value
10	NYR	Dylan McIlrath	D	108	9	0.2	1.5	-0.47	poor value
11	DAL	Jack Campbell	G	176	—	2.1	1.0	+0.28	great value
12	ANA	Cam Fowler	D	1132	527	9.2	1.5	+0.65	STEAL
13	PHX	Brandon Gormley	D	58	5	0.2	1.5	-0.48	poor value
14	STL	Jaden Schwartz	F	869	559	6.2	3.3	+0.27	great value
15	LAK	Derek Forbort	D	552	106	2.8	1.5	+0.23	fair
16	STL	Vladimir Tarasenko	F	906	709	7.2	3.3	+0.34	great value
17	COL	Joey Hishon	F	13	2	0.0	3.3	-0.75	BUST
18	NSH	Austin Watson	F	528	121	2.0	3.2	-0.20	fair
19	FLA	Nick Bjugstad	F	821	339	3.8	3.2	+0.07	fair
20	PIT	Beau Bennett	F	200	64	1.2	3.2	-0.37	poor value
21	DET	Riley Sheahan	F	637	194	3.6	3.2	+0.05	fair
22	MTL	Jarred Tinordi	D	205	30	0.6	1.5	-0.31	poor value
23	BUF	Mark Pysyk	D	521	104	3.3	1.5	+0.30	great value
24	CHI	Kevin Hayes	F	805	446	5.0	3.0	+0.22	fair
25	FLA	Quinton Howden	F	97	17	0.4	2.9	-0.59	BUST
26	WSH	Evgeny Kuznetsov	F	743	575	6.8	2.8	+0.38	great value
27	PHX	Mark Visentin	G	1	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
28	SJS	Charlie Coyle	F	1038	549	5.7	2.5	+0.35	great value
29	ANA	Emerson Etem	F	173	46	0.9	2.3	-0.32	poor value
30	NYI	Brock Nelson	F	1009	659	5.9	2.1	+0.42	great value
31	EDM	Tyler Pitlick	F	454	111	1.7	1.9	-0.04	fair
32	BOS	Jared Knight	F	0	0	0.0	1.7	-0.63	BUST
33	FLA	John McFarland	F	3	0	0.0	1.6	-0.61	BUST
34	CBJ	Dalton Smith	F	1	0	0.0	1.4	-0.58	BUST
35	CHI	Ludvig Rensfeldt	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
36	FLA	Alexander Petrovic	D	323	60	1.5	1.4	+0.02	fair
37	CAR	Justin Faulk	D	1066	503	8.7	1.4	+0.66	STEAL
38	NJD	Jon Merrill	D	682	115	2.9	1.4	+0.28	great value
39	MIN	Brett Bulmer	F	17	3	0.1	1.2	-0.50	BUST
40	NYR	Christian Thomas	F	27	3	0.1	1.2	-0.50	poor value
41	DAL	Patrik Nemeth	D	504	70	2.5	1.4	+0.24	fair
42	ANA	Devante Smith-Pelly	F	395	101	1.9	1.2	+0.16	fair
43	TOR	Brad Ross	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
44	STL	Sebastian Wannstrom	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
45	BOS	Ryan Spooner	F	325	167	2.4	1.2	+0.27	great value
46	EDM	Martin Marincin	D	227	34	1.2	1.3	-0.04	fair
47	LAK	Tyler Toffoli	F	977	629	6.0	1.2	+0.59	STEAL
48	EDM	Curtis Hamilton	F	1	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
49	COL	Calvin Pickard	G	192	—	1.3	1.0	+0.09	fair
50	FLA	Connor Brickley	F	81	21	0.3	1.2	-0.33	poor value
51	DET	Calle Jarnkrok	F	774	316	4.1	1.2	+0.46	great value
52	PHX	Philip Lane	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
53	CAR	Mark Alt	D	20	0	0.0	1.3	-0.54	BUST
54	CHI	Justin Holl	D	408	99	1.9	1.3	+0.14	fair
55	CBJ	Petr Straka	F	3	2	0.0	1.2	-0.53	BUST
56	MIN	Johan Larsson	F	488	132	2.7	1.2	+0.31	great value
57	PHX	Oscar Lindberg	F	252	79	1.3	1.2	+0.03	fair
58	CHI	Kent Simpson	G	1	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
59	MIN	Jason Zucker	F	832	468	4.5	1.2	+0.50	great value
60	CHI	Stephen Johns	D	167	33	1.0	1.3	-0.08	fair
61	EDM	Ryan Martindale	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
62	TOR	Greg McKegg	F	233	39	0.8	1.2	-0.13	fair
63	TBL	Brock Beukeboom	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.56	BUST
64	CGY	Max Reinhart	F	23	5	0.1	1.2	-0.44	poor value
65	NYI	Kirill Kabanov	F	0	0	0.0	1.1	-0.53	BUST
66	TBL	Radko Gudas	D	891	211	4.4	1.1	+0.50	STEAL
67	CAR	Danny Biega	D	10	2	0.1	1.1	-0.48	poor value
68	BUF	Jerome Leduc	D	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.51	BUST
69	FLA	Joe Basaraba	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.50	BUST
70	LAK	Jordan Weal	F	218	69	1.2	1.0	+0.06	fair
71	COL	Michael Bournival	F	113	22	0.4	1.0	-0.24	fair
72	TBL	Adam Janosik	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
73	CGY	Joey Leach	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
74	STL	Max Gardiner	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
75	BUF	Kevin Sundher	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
76	OTT	Jakub Culek	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.46	poor value
77	DAL	Alexander Guptill	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.46	poor value
78	NSH	Taylor Aronson	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
79	TOR	Sondre Olden	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
80	PIT	Bryan Rust	F	716	505	4.1	0.8	+0.57	STEAL
81	DET	Louis-Marc Aubry	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
82	NYI	Jason Clark	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
83	BUF	Matt MacKenzie	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
84	NJD	Scott Wedgewood	G	201	—	0.7	1.0	-0.10	fair
85	CAR	Austin Levi	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
86	WSH	Stanislav Galiev	F	26	4	0.1	0.7	-0.34	poor value
87	ATL	Julian Melchiori	D	30	2	0.1	0.7	-0.33	poor value
88	SJS	Max Gaede	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
89	PHI	Michael Chaput	F	182	22	0.6	0.6	-0.03	fair
90	CHI	Joakim Nordstrom	F	444	75	1.8	0.6	+0.35	great value
91	EDM	Jeremie Blain	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
92	FLA	Sam Brittain	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
93	FLA	Benjamin Gallacher	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
94	CBJ	Brandon Archibald	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
95	COL	Stephen Silas	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
96	TBL	Geoffrey Schemitsch	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
97	BOS	Craig Cunningham	F	63	8	0.2	0.6	-0.22	fair
98	BUF	Steven Shipley	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
99	FLA	Joonas Donskoi	F	474	208	3.4	0.6	+0.57	STEAL
100	NYR	Andrew Yogan	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
101	ATL	Ivan Telegin	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
102	CBJ	Mathieu Corbeil	G	0	—	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
103	CGY	John Ramage	D	2	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
104	STL	Jani Hakanpää	D	290	45	0.8	0.7	+0.04	fair
105	CAR	Justin Shugg	F	3	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
106	OTT	Marcus Sorensen	F	226	64	1.2	0.5	+0.24	fair
107	COL	Sami Aittokallio	G	2	—	0.0	0.7	-0.38	poor value
108	CGY	Bill Arnold	F	1	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
109	DAL	Alex Theriau	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
110	PIT	Tom Kuhnhackl	F	232	54	1.0	0.5	+0.19	fair
111	DET	Teemu Pulkkinen	F	83	22	0.4	0.5	-0.08	fair
112	WSH	Philipp Grubauer	G	407	—	3.9	0.6	+0.61	STEAL
113	MTL	Mark MacMillan	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
114	NJD	Joe Faust	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
115	VAN	Patrick McNally	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
116	TOR	Petter Granberg	D	45	2	0.1	0.7	-0.31	poor value
117	MTL	Morgan Ellis	D	3	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
118	TBL	James Mullin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
119	PHI	Tye McGinn	F	89	17	0.4	0.5	-0.05	fair
120	CHI	Rob Flick	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
121	EDM	Tyler Bunz	G	1	—	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
122	ANA	Chris Wagner	F	401	66	1.5	0.5	+0.33	great value
123	FLA	Zach Hyman	F	713	496	3.9	0.5	+0.63	STEAL
124	CBJ	Austin Madaisky	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
125	NYI	Tony Dehart	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
126	NSH	Patrick Cehlin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
127	SJS	Cody Ferriero	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
128	ATL	Fredrik Pettersson-Wentzel	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
129	SJS	Freddie Hamilton	F	75	6	0.2	0.5	-0.17	fair
130	NYR	Jason Wilson	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
131	DAL	John Klingberg	D	700	443	8.0	0.6	+0.77	STEAL
132	ANA	Tim Heed	D	105	29	0.7	0.6	+0.05	fair
133	CGY	Micheal Ferland	F	335	134	2.0	0.4	+0.46	great value
134	STL	Cody Beach	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
135	BOS	Justin Florek	F	4	2	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
136	SJS	Isaac MacLeod	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
137	COL	Troy Rutkowski	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
138	PHX	Louis Domingue	G	144	—	1.3	0.3	+0.38	great value
139	COL	Luke Walker	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
140	PIT	Kenny Agostino	F	86	30	0.5	0.4	+0.02	fair
141	DET	Petr Mrazek	G	438	—	3.4	0.3	+0.66	STEAL
142	WSH	Caleb Herbert	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
143	BUF	Gregg Sutch	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
144	TOR	Sam Carrick	F	397	89	0.5	0.4	+0.07	fair
145	VAN	Adam Polasek	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
146	TOR	Daniel Brodin	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
147	MTL	Brendan Gallagher	F	920	488	5.9	0.4	+0.75	STEAL
148	LAK	Kevin Gravel	D	139	15	0.5	0.5	-0.02	fair
149	PHI	Michael Parks	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
150	ATL	Yasin Cisse	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
151	CHI	Mirko Hoefflin	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
152	PIT	Joe Rogalski	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
153	FLA	Corey Durocher	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
154	CBJ	Dalton Prout	D	264	38	1.4	0.5	+0.33	great value
155	ATL	Kendall McFaull	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
156	TBL	Brendan O'Donnell	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
157	NYR	Jesper Fast	F	703	248	3.5	0.4	+0.64	STEAL
158	LAK	Maxim Kitsyn	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
159	MIN	Johan Gustafsson	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
160	ATL	Tanner Lane	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
161	ANA	Andreas Dahlstrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
162	EDM	Brandon Davidson	D	180	23	0.9	0.4	+0.18	fair
163	SJS	Konrad Abeltshauser	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
164	STL	Stephen MacAulay	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
165	BOS	Zane McIntyre	G	8	—	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
166	EDM	Drew Czerwonka	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
167	CAR	Tyler Stahl	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
168	NSH	Anthony Bitetto	D	197	31	1.0	0.4	+0.24	fair
169	ATL	Sebastian Owuya	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
170	PIT	Reid McNeill	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
171	DET	Brooks Macek	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
172	VAN	Alex Friesen	F	1	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
173	BUF	Cedrick Henley	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
174	NJD	Maxime Clermont	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
175	VAN	Jonathan Iilahti	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
176	WSH	Samuel Carrier	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
177	ANA	Kevin Lind	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
178	OTT	Mark Stone	F	776	721	6.8	0.4	+0.79	STEAL
179	PHI	Nick Luukko	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
180	CHI	Nick Mattson	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
181	EDM	Kristians Pelss	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
182	TOR	Josh Nicholls	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
183	FLA	Ronald Boyd	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
184	CBJ	Martin Ouellette	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
185	NYI	Cody Rosen	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
186	TBL	Teigan Zahn	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
188	SJS	Lee Moffie	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
189	MIN	Dylen McKinlay	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
190	NYR	Randy McNaught	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
191	CHI	Mac Carruth	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
192	ANA	Brett Perlini	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
193	CGY	Patrick Holland	F	5	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
194	NSH	David Elsner	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
195	BOS	Maxim Chudinov	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
196	OTT	Bryce Aneloski	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
197	COL	Luke Moffatt	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
198	NSH	Joonas Rask	F	2	1	0.0	0.4	-0.24	fair
199	ATL	Peter Stoykewych	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
200	SJS	Christopher Crane	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
201	DET	Ben Marshall	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
202	EDM	Kellen Jones	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
203	BUF	Christian Isackson	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
204	NJD	Mauro Jorg	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
205	VAN	Sawyer Hannay	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
206	PHI	Ricard Blidstrand	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
207	MTL	John Westin	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
208	BUF	Riley Boychuk	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
209	PHI	Brendan Ranford	F	1	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
210	BOS	Zach Trotman	D	91	13	0.5	0.3	+0.07	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75