NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2012 draft class210 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	EDM	Nail Yakupov	F	350	136	2.5	10.9	-0.59	BUST
2	CBJ	Ryan Murray	D	445	131	3.6	7.9	-0.35	poor value
3	MTL	Alex Galchenyuk	F	654	354	5.5	7.3	-0.13	fair
4	NYI	Griffin Reinhart	D	37	2	0.1	5.7	-0.81	BUST
5	TOR	Morgan Rielly	D	960	553	10.1	5.7	+0.26	great value
6	ANA	Hampus Lindholm	D	838	343	7.4	5.7	+0.12	fair
7	MIN	Mathew Dumba	D	748	261	6.3	5.1	+0.10	fair
8	PIT	Derrick Pouliot	D	226	54	1.4	5.1	-0.48	poor value
9	WPG	Jacob Trouba	D	914	361	7.6	5.1	+0.18	fair
10	TBL	Slater Koekkoek	D	186	34	1.0	1.5	-0.15	fair
11	WSH	Filip Forsberg	F	870	764	8.1	3.3	+0.39	great value
12	BUF	Mikhail Grigorenko	F	249	76	1.5	3.3	-0.31	poor value
13	DAL	Radek Faksa	F	774	233	3.8	3.3	+0.06	fair
14	BUF	Zemgus Girgensons	F	852	216	3.6	3.3	+0.03	fair
15	OTT	Cody Ceci	D	959	245	6.1	1.5	+0.53	STEAL
16	WSH	Tom Wilson	F	915	462	5.3	3.3	+0.21	fair
17	SJS	Tomas Hertl	F	883	614	7.1	3.3	+0.34	great value
18	CHI	Teuvo Teravainen	F	834	557	6.4	3.2	+0.30	great value
19	TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	G	604	—	7.0	1.0	+0.67	STEAL
20	PHI	Scott Laughton	F	751	290	3.9	3.2	+0.09	fair
21	CGY	Mark Jankowski	F	491	152	1.9	3.2	-0.22	fair
22	PIT	Olli Maatta	D	810	212	4.9	1.5	+0.45	great value
23	FLA	Mike Matheson	D	710	303	5.6	1.5	+0.50	great value
24	BOS	Malcolm Subban	G	87	—	0.9	1.0	-0.03	fair
25	STL	Jordan Schmaltz	D	42	5	0.2	1.5	-0.51	BUST
26	VAN	Brendan Gaunce	F	214	35	0.6	2.8	-0.49	poor value
27	PHX	Henrik Samuelsson	F	3	0	0.0	2.6	-0.72	BUST
28	NYR	Brady Skjei	D	781	308	5.9	1.5	+0.52	STEAL
29	NJD	Stefan Matteau	F	92	11	0.3	2.3	-0.54	BUST
30	LAK	Tanner Pearson	F	778	327	4.7	2.1	+0.33	great value
31	CBJ	Oscar Dansk	G	6	—	0.1	1.0	-0.44	poor value
32	EDM	Mitchell Moroz	F	0	0	0.0	1.7	-0.63	BUST
33	MTL	Sebastian Collberg	F	0	0	0.0	1.6	-0.61	BUST
34	NYI	Ville Pokka	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
35	TOR	Matthew Finn	D	0	0	0.0	1.4	-0.59	BUST
36	ANA	Nicolas Kerdiles	F	3	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
37	NSH	Pontus Aberg	F	132	44	0.7	1.2	-0.17	fair
38	CAR	Phillip Di Giuseppe	F	302	81	1.4	1.2	+0.05	fair
40	TBL	Dylan Blujus	D	0	0	0.0	1.4	-0.58	BUST
41	COL	Mitchell Heard	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
42	CGY	Patrick Sieloff	D	2	2	0.0	1.3	-0.55	BUST
43	DAL	Ludwig Bystrom	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
44	BUF	Jake McCabe	D	732	200	4.3	1.3	+0.44	great value
45	PHI	Anthony Stolarz	G	171	—	1.4	1.0	+0.13	fair
46	MIN	Raphael Bussieres	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
47	CAR	Brock McGinn	F	534	158	2.8	1.2	+0.32	great value
48	CHI	Dillon Fournier	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
49	DET	Martin Frk	F	124	41	0.6	1.2	-0.20	fair
50	NSH	Colton Sissons	F	765	235	3.6	1.2	+0.42	great value
51	MTL	Dalton Thrower	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
52	PIT	Teddy Blueger	F	462	169	2.2	1.2	+0.23	fair
53	TBL	Brian Hart	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
54	DAL	Mike Winther	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
55	SJS	Chris Tierney	F	649	248	4.2	1.2	+0.47	great value
56	STL	Samuel Kurker	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
57	VAN	Alexandre Mallet	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
58	PHX	Jordan Martinook	F	806	265	3.6	1.2	+0.41	great value
59	NYR	Boo Nieves	F	76	19	0.3	1.2	-0.36	poor value
60	NJD	Damon Severson	D	859	352	7.1	1.3	+0.61	STEAL
61	DAL	Devin Shore	F	498	144	2.4	1.2	+0.26	great value
62	CBJ	Joonas Korpisalo	G	334	—	3.1	1.0	+0.41	great value
63	EDM	Jujhar Khaira	F	337	80	1.6	1.2	+0.12	fair
64	MTL	Tim Bozon	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
65	NYI	Adam Pelech	D	650	179	4.0	1.2	+0.46	great value
66	NSH	Jimmy Vesey	F	626	194	3.3	1.1	+0.41	great value
67	STL	Mackenzie MacEachern	F	131	24	0.4	1.1	-0.26	poor value
68	MIN	John Draeger	D	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.51	BUST
69	CAR	Daniel Altshuller	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
70	WPG	Scott Kosmachuk	F	8	3	0.0	1.0	-0.46	poor value
71	TBL	Tanner Richard	F	3	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
72	COL	Troy Bourke	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
73	BUF	Justin Kea	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
74	DAL	Esa Lindell	D	774	249	5.4	0.8	+0.64	STEAL
75	CGY	Jon Gillies	G	35	—	0.2	1.0	-0.34	poor value
76	OTT	Chris Driedger	G	67	—	1.3	1.0	+0.10	fair
77	WSH	Chandler Stephenson	F	662	378	4.1	0.8	+0.55	STEAL
78	PHI	Shayne Gostisbehere	D	753	469	7.6	0.8	+0.73	STEAL
79	CHI	Chris Calnan	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
80	DET	Jake Paterson	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
81	PIT	Oskar Sundqvist	F	545	181	2.4	0.8	+0.40	great value
82	OTT	Jarrod Maidens	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
83	PIT	Matt Murray	G	279	—	3.8	1.0	+0.48	great value
84	FLA	Steven Hodges	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
85	BOS	Matt Grzelcyk	D	597	187	3.6	0.7	+0.54	STEAL
86	STL	Colton Parayko	D	808	317	6.5	0.7	+0.70	STEAL
87	ANA	Frederik Andersen	G	552	—	6.9	1.0	+0.67	STEAL
88	PHX	James Melindy	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
89	NSH	Brendan Leipsic	F	187	59	1.0	0.6	+0.13	fair
90	NJD	Ben Johnson	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
91	EDM	Daniil Zharkov	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
92	PIT	Matia Marcantuoni	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
93	EDM	Erik Gustafsson	D	521	241	4.8	0.7	+0.63	STEAL
94	MTL	Brady Vail	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
95	CBJ	Josh Anderson	F	696	279	3.8	0.6	+0.59	STEAL
96	NJD	Ben Thomson	F	3	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
97	ANA	Kevin Roy	F	28	7	0.1	0.6	-0.26	poor value
98	MIN	Adam Gilmour	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
99	CAR	Erik Karlsson	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
100	WSH	Thomas Di Pauli	F	2	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
101	TBL	Cedric Paquette	F	448	95	1.9	0.6	+0.39	great value
102	PHX	Rhett Holland	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
103	NYI	Loic Leduc	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
104	DAL	Gemel Smith	F	91	25	0.4	0.6	-0.07	fair
105	CGY	Brett Kulak	D	671	141	3.0	0.7	+0.49	great value
106	OTT	Timothy Boyle	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
107	WSH	Austin Wuthrich	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
108	ANA	Andrew O'Brien	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
109	SJS	Christophe Lalancette	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
110	DET	Andreas Athanasiou	F	495	246	3.8	0.5	+0.61	STEAL
111	PHI	Fredrik Larsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
112	NSH	Zach Stepan	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
113	PIT	Sean Maguire	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
114	FLA	Alexander Delnov	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
115	CAR	Trevor Carrick	D	7	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
116	STL	Nicholas Walters	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
117	PHI	Taylor Leier	F	55	7	0.2	0.5	-0.20	fair
118	NSH	Mikko Vainonen	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
119	NYR	Calle Andersson	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
120	CAR	Jaccob Slavin	D	793	309	6.8	0.7	+0.72	STEAL
121	LAK	Nikolai Prokhorkin	F	43	14	0.3	0.5	-0.13	fair
122	MTL	Charles Hudon	F	134	41	0.7	0.5	+0.10	fair
123	EDM	Joey Laleggia	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
124	CGY	Ryan Culkin	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
125	NYI	Doyle Somerby	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
126	TOR	Dominic Toninato	F	200	36	0.7	0.5	+0.09	fair
127	ANA	Brian Cooper	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
128	MIN	Daniel Gunnarsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
129	CAR	Brendan Woods	F	7	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
130	WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	G	625	—	7.0	0.3	+0.80	STEAL
131	BOS	Seth Griffith	F	80	19	0.4	0.5	-0.05	fair
132	COL	Michael Clarke	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
133	BUF	Logan Nelson	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
134	DAL	Branden Troock	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
135	NJD	Graham Black	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
136	OTT	Robert Baillargeon	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
137	WSH	Connor Carrick	D	242	50	1.5	0.6	+0.29	great value
138	SJS	Danny O'Regan	F	30	6	0.1	0.4	-0.21	fair
139	CHI	Garret Ross	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
140	DET	Michael McKee	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
141	PHI	Reece Willcox	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.35	poor value
142	NYR	Thomas Spelling	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
143	PIT	Clark Seymour	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
144	DAL	Henri Kiviaho	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
145	BOS	Cody Payne	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
146	STL	Francois Tremblay	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
147	VAN	Ben Hutton	D	575	139	3.6	0.5	+0.60	STEAL
148	PHX	Niklas Tikkinen	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
149	CHI	Travis Brown	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
150	NJD	Alexander Kerfoot	F	647	309	4.0	0.4	+0.67	STEAL
151	LAK	Colin Miller	D	590	183	4.2	0.5	+0.65	STEAL
152	CBJ	Daniel Zaar	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
153	EDM	John McCarron	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
154	MTL	Erik Nystrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
155	NYI	Jesse Graham	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
156	TOR	Connor Brown	F	676	301	4.0	0.4	+0.67	STEAL
157	TOR	Ryan Rupert	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
158	MIN	Christoph Bertschy	F	9	1	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
159	CAR	Collin Olson	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
160	WPG	Ryan Olsen	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
161	TBL	Jake Dotchin	D	103	23	0.6	0.5	+0.09	fair
162	COL	Joseph Blandisi	F	101	31	0.5	0.4	+0.08	fair
163	BUF	Linus Ullmark	G	347	—	3.8	0.3	+0.68	STEAL
164	NSH	Simon Fernholm	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
165	CGY	Coda Gordon	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
166	OTT	Francois Brassard	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
167	WSH	Riley Barber	F	16	0	0.0	0.4	-0.25	poor value
168	SJS	Clifford Watson	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
169	CHI	Vinnie Hinostroza	F	477	179	2.4	0.4	+0.53	STEAL
170	DET	James de Haas	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
171	LAK	Tomas Hyka	F	27	7	0.1	0.4	-0.17	fair
172	NSH	Max Gortz	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
173	PIT	Anton Zlobin	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
174	FLA	Francis Beauvillier	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
175	BOS	Matt Benning	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
176	STL	Petteri Lindbohm	D	49	4	0.2	0.4	-0.13	fair
177	VAN	Wesley Myron	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
178	PHX	Samuel Fejes	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
179	NSH	Marek Mazanec	G	31	—	0.2	0.3	-0.06	fair
180	NJD	Artur Gavrus	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
181	LAK	Paul LaDue	D	70	18	0.4	0.4	+0.04	fair
182	CBJ	Gianluca Curcuruto	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
183	DAL	Dmitry Sinitsyn	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
184	PHX	Marek Langhamer	G	2	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
185	NYI	Jake Bischoff	D	4	0	0.0	0.4	-0.25	poor value
186	CGY	Matthew Deblouw	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
187	ANA	Kenton Helgesen	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
188	MIN	Louis Nanne	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
189	CAR	Brendan Collier	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
190	WPG	Jamie Phillips	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
191	CHI	Brandon Whitney	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
192	COL	Colin Smith	F	1	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
193	BUF	Brady Austin	D	5	0	0.0	0.3	-0.23	fair
194	FLA	Jonatan Nielsen	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
195	WSH	Christian Djoos	D	155	38	1.1	0.3	+0.31	great value
196	OTT	Mikael Wikstrand	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
197	WSH	Jaynen Rissling	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
198	SJS	Joakim Ryan	D	145	24	0.8	0.3	+0.22	fair
199	CHI	Matt Tomkins	G	6	—	0.1	0.3	-0.18	fair
200	DET	Rasmus Bodin	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
201	PHI	Valeri Vasiliev	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
202	TBL	Nikita Gusev	F	97	54	0.9	0.3	+0.25	great value
203	WSH	Sergey Kostenko	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
204	BUF	Judd Peterson	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
205	BOS	Colton Hargrove	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
206	STL	Tyrel Seaman	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
207	VAN	Matthew Beattie	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
208	PHX	Justin Hache	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
209	TOR	Viktor Loov	D	4	2	0.0	0.3	-0.21	fair
210	ANA	Jaycob Megna	D	197	27	1.0	0.3	+0.28	great value
211	LAK	Nick Ebert	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75