NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2014 draft class209 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	FLA	Aaron Ekblad	D	811	409	9.3	7.9	+0.07	fair
2	BUF	Sam Reinhart	F	848	688	9.4	8.9	+0.03	fair
3	EDM	Leon Draisaitl	F	863	1067	13.3	7.3	+0.28	great value
4	CGY	Sam Bennett	F	776	400	6.0	7.2	-0.09	fair
5	NYI	Michael Dal Colle	F	112	21	0.5	5.9	-0.73	BUST
6	VAN	Jake Virtanen	F	317	100	1.8	5.1	-0.42	poor value
7	CAR	Haydn Fleury	D	349	48	1.8	5.1	-0.42	poor value
8	TOR	William Nylander	F	759	703	9.0	3.3	+0.43	great value
9	WPG	Nikolaj Ehlers	F	765	596	8.0	3.3	+0.38	great value
10	ANA	Nick Ritchie	F	481	186	3.1	3.3	-0.03	fair
11	NSH	Kevin Fiala	F	707	528	7.2	3.3	+0.34	great value
12	ARI	Brendan Perlini	F	262	81	1.4	3.3	-0.34	poor value
13	WSH	Jakub Vrana	F	406	223	3.3	3.3	-0.00	fair
14	DAL	Julius Honka	D	87	13	0.4	1.5	-0.38	poor value
15	DET	Dylan Larkin	F	814	646	8.9	3.3	+0.42	great value
16	CBJ	Sonny Milano	F	344	145	2.1	3.3	-0.18	fair
17	PHI	Travis Sanheim	D	670	253	6.3	1.5	+0.54	STEAL
18	MIN	Alex Tuch	F	623	455	6.2	3.2	+0.29	great value
19	TBL	Tony DeAngelo	D	490	266	5.5	1.5	+0.49	great value
20	CHI	Nick Schmaltz	F	679	508	6.9	3.2	+0.33	great value
21	STL	Robby Fabbri	F	463	221	3.5	3.2	+0.04	fair
22	PIT	Kasperi Kapanen	F	576	243	3.9	3.2	+0.08	fair
24	VAN	Jared McCann	F	729	446	6.1	3.0	+0.30	great value
25	BOS	David Pastrnak	F	842	945	11.6	2.9	+0.56	STEAL
26	MTL	Nikita Scherbak	F	37	8	0.2	2.8	-0.66	BUST
27	SJS	Nikolay Goldobin	F	125	46	0.7	2.6	-0.44	poor value
28	NYI	Joshua Ho-Sang	F	53	24	0.4	2.5	-0.55	BUST
29	LAK	Adrian Kempe	F	717	478	6.7	2.3	+0.44	great value
30	NJD	John Quenneville	F	42	5	0.1	2.1	-0.60	BUST
31	BUF	Brendan Lemieux	F	307	74	1.4	1.9	-0.13	fair
32	FLA	Jayce Hawryluk	F	98	27	0.5	1.7	-0.39	poor value
33	STL	Ivan Barbashev	F	677	358	5.1	1.6	+0.46	great value
34	CGY	Mason McDonald	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
35	TBL	Dominik Masin	D	0	0	0.0	1.4	-0.59	BUST
36	VAN	Thatcher Demko	G	262	—	3.6	1.0	+0.46	great value
37	CAR	Alex Nedeljkovic	G	222	—	2.5	1.0	+0.34	great value
38	ANA	Marcus Pettersson	D	614	182	4.8	1.4	+0.47	great value
39	WSH	Vitek Vanecek	G	210	—	2.5	1.0	+0.34	great value
40	OTT	Andreas Englund	D	204	20	0.7	1.4	-0.20	fair
41	NJD	Josh Jacobs	D	3	0	0.0	1.4	-0.57	BUST
42	NSH	Vladislav Kamenev	F	66	13	0.2	1.2	-0.39	poor value
43	ARI	Ryan MacInnis	F	27	1	0.1	1.2	-0.49	poor value
44	BUF	Eric Cornel	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
45	DAL	Brett Pollock	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
46	SJS	Julius Bergman	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
47	CBJ	Ryan Collins	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
48	PHI	Nicolas Aube-Kubel	F	310	82	1.5	1.2	+0.08	fair
49	BUF	Vaclav Karabacek	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
50	LAK	Roland McKeown	D	16	3	0.1	1.3	-0.52	BUST
51	NSH	Jack Dougherty	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
52	STL	Maxim Letunov	F	3	1	0.0	1.2	-0.53	BUST
53	SJS	Noah Rod	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
54	CGY	Hunter Smith	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
55	ANA	Brandon Montour	D	673	330	7.3	1.3	+0.62	STEAL
56	BOS	Ryan Donato	F	574	260	3.9	1.2	+0.44	great value
57	TBL	Johnathan MacLeod	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
58	ARI	Christian Dvorak	F	624	304	4.9	1.2	+0.52	STEAL
59	NYR	Brandon Halverson	G	4	—	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
60	LAK	Alex Lintuniemi	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
61	BUF	Jonas Johansson	G	105	—	1.1	1.0	+0.02	fair
62	NSH	Justin Kirkland	F	50	10	0.2	1.2	-0.43	poor value
63	DET	Dominic Turgeon	F	9	0	0.0	1.2	-0.53	BUST
64	CGY	Brandon Hickey	D	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.55	BUST
65	FLA	Juho Lammikko	F	183	28	0.7	1.1	-0.15	fair
66	VAN	Nikita Tryamkin	D	79	11	0.4	1.1	-0.28	poor value
67	CAR	Warren Foegele	F	590	228	3.7	1.1	+0.45	great value
68	TOR	Rinat Valiev	D	12	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
69	WPG	Jack Glover	D	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
70	OTT	Miles Gendron	D	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
71	NJD	Connor Chatham	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.49	poor value
72	SJS	Alex Schoenborn	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
73	MTL	Brett Lernout	D	21	1	0.1	0.8	-0.39	poor value
74	BUF	Brycen Martin	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
75	DAL	Alexander Peters	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
76	CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	G	274	—	3.1	1.0	+0.41	great value
77	CBJ	Blake Siebenaler	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
78	NYI	Ilya Sorokin	G	314	—	4.5	1.0	+0.54	STEAL
79	TBL	Brayden Point	F	728	691	9.0	0.8	+0.76	STEAL
80	MIN	Louie Belpedio	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
81	SJS	Dylan Sadowy	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
82	STL	Jake Walman	D	325	111	2.7	0.7	+0.44	great value
83	CHI	Matheson Iacopelli	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
84	COL	Kyle Wood	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
85	NYR	Keegan Iverson	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
86	PHI	Mark Friedman	D	93	13	0.4	0.7	-0.13	fair
87	ARI	Anton Karlsson	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
88	CHI	Beau Starrett	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
89	WSH	Nathan Walker	F	275	67	1.2	0.6	+0.20	fair
90	LAK	Michael Amadio	F	531	178	2.9	0.6	+0.50	STEAL
91	EDM	William Lagesson	D	107	12	0.5	0.7	-0.10	fair
92	FLA	Joe Wegwerth	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
93	COL	Nick Magyar	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
94	STL	Ville Husso	G	167	—	2.1	0.9	+0.29	great value
95	NYI	Linus Soderstrom	G	0	—	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
96	CAR	Josh Wesley	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
97	CAR	Lucas Wallmark	F	187	59	1.1	0.6	+0.18	fair
98	CHI	Fredrik Olofsson	F	85	13	0.3	0.6	-0.17	fair
99	WPG	Chase De Leo	F	7	0	0.0	0.6	-0.35	poor value
100	OTT	Shane Eiserman	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
101	WPG	Nelson Nogier	D	11	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
102	SJS	Alexis Vanier	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
103	TOR	John Piccinich	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
104	NYR	Ryan Mantha	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
105	DAL	Michael Prapavessis	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
106	DET	Christoffer Ehn	F	114	13	0.4	0.5	-0.10	fair
107	CBJ	Julien Pelletier	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
108	NYI	Devon Toews	D	549	308	6.8	0.7	+0.72	STEAL
109	MIN	Kaapo Kahkonen	G	140	—	1.5	0.6	+0.28	great value
110	STL	Austin Poganski	F	22	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
111	EDM	Zachary Nagelvoort	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
112	NSH	Viktor Arvidsson	F	690	448	6.3	0.5	+0.74	STEAL
113	PIT	Sam Lafferty	F	383	92	1.7	0.5	+0.37	great value
114	COL	Alexis Pepin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
115	DAL	Brent Moran	G	0	—	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
116	BOS	Danton Heinen	F	618	253	3.9	0.5	+0.63	STEAL
117	ARI	Michael Bunting	F	424	253	3.5	0.5	+0.60	STEAL
118	NYR	Igor Shesterkin	G	330	—	5.3	0.5	+0.71	STEAL
119	TBL	Ben Thomas	D	5	0	0.0	0.7	-0.39	poor value
120	LAK	Steven Johnson	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
121	BUF	Max Willman	F	68	10	0.2	0.5	-0.16	fair
122	NYR	Richard Nejezchleb	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
123	ANA	Matthew Berkovitz	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
124	STL	Jaedon Descheneau	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
125	MTL	Nikolas Koberstein	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.39	poor value
126	VAN	Gustav Forsling	D	565	222	5.3	0.6	+0.67	STEAL
127	CAR	Clark Bishop	F	53	9	0.2	0.5	-0.17	fair
128	TOR	Dakota Joshua	F	296	96	1.5	0.5	+0.35	great value
129	WPG	CJ Suess	F	5	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
130	EDM	Liam Coughlin	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
131	NJD	Ryan Rehill	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
132	NSH	Joonas Lyytinen	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
133	ARI	Dysin Mayo	D	85	13	0.5	0.6	-0.06	fair
134	WSH	Shane Gersich	F	3	1	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
135	DAL	Miro Karjalainen	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
136	DET	Chase Perry	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
137	CBJ	Tyler Bird	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
138	PHI	Oskar Lindblom	F	337	112	2.0	0.4	+0.45	great value
139	MIN	Tanner Faith	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
140	NYR	Daniel Walcott	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
141	CHI	Luc Snuggerud	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.35	poor value
142	NYR	Tyler Nanne	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
143	FLA	Miguel Fidler	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
144	COL	Anton Lindholm	D	66	5	0.2	0.5	-0.17	fair
145	PIT	Anthony Angello	F	31	5	0.1	0.4	-0.19	fair
146	BOS	Anders Bjork	F	225	61	1.2	0.4	+0.31	great value
147	MTL	Daniel Audette	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
148	CHI	Andreas Soderberg	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
149	SJS	Rourke Chartier	F	56	4	0.1	0.4	-0.16	fair
150	LAK	Alec Dillon	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
151	BUF	Christopher Brown	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
152	NJD	Joey Dudek	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
153	EDM	Tyler Vesel	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
154	DAL	Aaron Haydon	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
155	NYI	Kyle Schempp	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
156	VAN	Kyle Pettit	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
157	LAK	Jake Marchment	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
158	TOR	Nolan Vesey	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
159	WSH	Steven Spinner	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
160	MIN	Pontus Sjalin	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
161	NJD	Brandon Baddock	F	1	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
162	NSH	Aaron Irving	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
163	ARI	David Westlund	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
164	WPG	Pavel Kraskovsky	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
165	DAL	John Nyberg	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
166	DET	Julius Vahatalo	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
167	MIN	Chase Lang	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
168	PHI	Radel Fazleev	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
169	MIN	Reid Duke	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
170	TBL	Cristiano Digiacinto	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
171	SJS	Kevin Labanc	F	512	237	3.7	0.4	+0.66	STEAL
172	STL	C.J. Yakimowicz	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
173	PIT	Jaden Lindo	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
174	COL	Maximilian Pajpach	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
175	CGY	Adam Ollas Mattsson	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
176	STL	Sammy Blais	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
177	MTL	Hayden Hawkey	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
178	CHI	Dylan Sikura	F	58	17	0.3	0.4	-0.05	fair
179	CHI	Ivan Nalimov	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
180	LAK	Matthew Mistele	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
181	BUF	Victor Olofsson	F	452	247	3.7	0.4	+0.66	STEAL
182	FLA	Hugo Fagerblom	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
183	EDM	Keven Bouchard	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
184	CGY	Austin Carroll	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
185	TBL	Cameron Darcy	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
186	VAN	MacKenze Stewart	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
187	CAR	Kyle Jenkins	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
188	TOR	Pierre Engvall	F	380	135	2.2	0.4	+0.52	STEAL
189	OTT	Kelly Summers	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
190	OTT	Francis Perron	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
191	ARI	Jared Fiegl	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
192	WPG	Matt Ustaski	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
193	ARI	Edgars Kulda	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
194	WSH	Kevin Elgestal	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
195	DAL	Patrick Sanvido	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
196	DET	Axel Holmstrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
197	CBJ	Olivier Leblanc	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
198	PHI	Jesper Pettersson	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
199	MIN	Pavel Jenys	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
200	NYI	Lukas Sutter	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
201	DET	Alexander Kadeykin	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
202	STL	Dwyer Tschantz	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
203	PIT	Jeff Taylor	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
204	COL	Julien Nantel	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
205	ANA	Ondrej Kase	F	258	124	1.9	0.3	+0.48	great value
206	BOS	Emil Johansson	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
207	MTL	Jake Evans	F	426	152	2.6	0.3	+0.58	STEAL
208	CHI	Jack Ramsey	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
209	LAK	Spencer Watson	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair
210	LAK	Jake Middleton	D	388	95	2.6	0.3	+0.58	STEAL

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75