NHL

draft pick value curve

expected career value by draft slot

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2015 draft class211 picks

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

#	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Pts	A	E	Score
1	EDM	Connor McDavid	F	802	1243	15.2	10.9	+0.16	fair
2	BUF	Jack Eichel	F	700	716	9.5	8.9	+0.03	fair
3	ARI	Dylan Strome	F	606	448	6.1	7.3	-0.08	fair
4	TOR	Mitch Marner	F	748	832	10.9	7.2	+0.20	fair
5	CAR	Noah Hanifin	D	839	357	8.6	5.7	+0.19	fair
6	NJD	Pavel Zacha	F	714	412	6.3	5.1	+0.10	fair
7	PHI	Ivan Provorov	D	778	313	8.1	5.1	+0.22	fair
8	CBJ	Zach Werenski	D	648	470	9.9	5.1	+0.30	great value
9	SJS	Timo Meier	F	706	483	7.0	3.3	+0.32	great value
10	COL	Mikko Rantanen	F	724	790	10.3	3.3	+0.48	great value
11	FLA	Lawson Crouse	F	675	262	4.5	3.3	+0.14	fair
12	DAL	Denis Gurianov	F	298	113	2.0	3.3	-0.20	fair
13	BOS	Jakub Zboril	D	76	16	0.5	1.5	-0.32	poor value
14	BOS	Jake DeBrusk	F	636	361	5.4	3.3	+0.21	fair
15	BOS	Zach Senyshyn	F	16	3	0.1	3.3	-0.74	BUST
16	NYI	Mathew Barzal	F	611	534	7.3	3.3	+0.34	great value
17	WPG	Kyle Connor	F	703	685	9.2	3.3	+0.44	great value
18	OTT	Thomas Chabot	D	578	339	7.9	1.5	+0.61	STEAL
19	DET	Evgeny Svechnikov	F	172	45	0.8	3.2	-0.48	poor value
20	MIN	Joel Eriksson Ek	F	622	355	5.6	3.2	+0.24	fair
21	OTT	Colin White	F	323	113	2.0	3.2	-0.20	fair
22	WSH	Ilya Samsonov	G	200	—	2.7	1.0	+0.37	great value
23	VAN	Brock Boeser	F	639	489	7.1	3.2	+0.35	great value
24	PHI	Travis Konecny	F	728	547	7.6	3.0	+0.39	great value
25	WPG	Jack Roslovic	F	604	302	4.7	2.9	+0.21	fair
26	MTL	Noah Juulsen	D	215	28	1.1	1.5	-0.13	fair
27	ANA	Jacob Larsson	D	172	24	1.0	1.5	-0.15	fair
28	NYI	Anthony Beauvillier	F	721	300	5.1	2.5	+0.30	great value
29	CBJ	Gabriel Carlsson	D	81	18	0.5	1.5	-0.35	poor value
30	ARI	Nick Merkley	F	41	15	0.3	2.1	-0.53	BUST
31	SJS	Jeremy Roy	D	0	0	0.0	1.5	-0.61	BUST
32	ARI	Christian Fischer	F	523	137	2.6	1.7	+0.16	fair
33	TBL	Mitchell Stephens	F	123	19	0.4	1.6	-0.38	poor value
34	TOR	Travis Dermott	D	348	62	2.0	1.5	+0.10	fair
35	CAR	Sebastian Aho	F	765	724	9.8	1.2	+0.71	STEAL
36	OTT	Gabriel Gagne	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
37	BOS	Brandon Carlo	D	700	120	4.5	1.4	+0.45	great value
38	CBJ	Paul Bittner	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
39	COL	A.J. Greer	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
40	COL	Nicolas Meloche	D	57	8	0.3	1.4	-0.41	poor value
41	NYR	Ryan Gropp	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
42	NJD	Mackenzie Blackwood	G	297	—	4.2	1.0	+0.52	STEAL
43	LAK	Erik Cernak	D	510	121	3.9	1.3	+0.41	great value
44	TBL	Matthew Spencer	D	0	0	0.0	1.3	-0.57	BUST
45	BOS	Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson	F	29	9	0.1	1.2	-0.45	poor value
46	PIT	Daniel Sprong	F	374	166	2.4	1.2	+0.26	great value
47	WPG	Jansen Harkins	F	306	45	1.0	1.2	-0.06	fair
48	OTT	Filip Chlapik	F	57	11	0.2	1.2	-0.41	poor value
49	DAL	Roope Hintz	F	529	426	5.9	1.2	+0.58	STEAL
50	MIN	Jordan Greenway	F	484	166	3.2	1.2	+0.37	great value
51	BUF	Brendan Guhle	D	65	14	0.4	1.3	-0.32	poor value
52	BOS	Jeremy Lauzon	D	394	58	2.4	1.3	+0.23	fair
53	CGY	Rasmus Andersson	D	627	283	6.8	1.3	+0.60	STEAL
54	CHI	Graham Knott	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
55	NSH	Yakov Trenin	F	465	121	2.5	1.2	+0.27	great value
56	STL	Vince Dunn	D	632	337	7.4	1.3	+0.63	STEAL
57	WSH	Jonas Siegenthaler	D	457	83	3.0	1.3	+0.31	great value
58	CBJ	Kevin Stenlund	F	377	93	2.0	1.2	+0.19	fair
59	ANA	Julius Nattinen	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
60	CGY	Oliver Kylington	D	220	60	1.5	1.3	+0.04	fair
61	TOR	Jeremy Bracco	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
62	NYR	Robin Kovacs	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
63	ARI	Kyle Capobianco	D	108	17	0.5	1.3	-0.27	poor value
64	TBL	Dennis Yan	F	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
65	TOR	Andrew Nielsen	D	0	0	0.0	1.2	-0.54	BUST
66	VAN	Guillaume Brisebois	D	31	3	0.1	1.1	-0.43	poor value
67	NJD	Blake Speers	F	5	0	0.0	1.1	-0.51	BUST
68	TOR	Martins Dzierkals	F	0	0	0.0	1.0	-0.51	BUST
69	CBJ	Keegan Kolesar	F	447	120	2.2	1.0	+0.29	great value
70	PHI	Felix Sandstrom	G	30	—	0.2	1.0	-0.36	poor value
71	COL	J.C. Beaudin	F	22	1	0.1	1.0	-0.45	poor value
72	TBL	Anthony Cirelli	F	590	347	5.4	0.9	+0.61	STEAL
73	DET	Vili Saarijarvi	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
74	LAK	Alexander Dergachyov	F	0	0	0.0	0.9	-0.47	poor value
75	BOS	Dan Vladar	G	162	—	2.2	1.0	+0.29	great value
76	ARI	Adin Hill	G	217	—	3.3	1.0	+0.43	great value
77	FLA	Samuel Montembeault	G	231	—	2.2	1.0	+0.29	great value
78	WPG	Erik Foley	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.45	poor value
79	NYR	Sergey Zborovskiy	D	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
80	ANA	Brent Gates Jr.	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.44	poor value
81	ARI	Brendan Warren	F	0	0	0.0	0.8	-0.43	poor value
82	NYI	Mitchell Vande Sompel	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.43	poor value
83	ARI	Jens Looke	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
84	ANA	Deven Sideroff	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.42	poor value
85	NSH	Tommy Novak	F	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
86	SJS	Mike Robinson	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
87	MTL	Lukas Vejdemo	F	13	2	0.0	0.7	-0.36	poor value
88	FLA	Thomas Schemitsch	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
89	NYR	Aleksi Saarela	F	9	4	0.1	0.6	-0.33	poor value
90	PHI	Matej Tomek	G	0	—	0.0	1.0	-0.50	poor value
91	CHI	Dennis Gilbert	D	122	23	0.6	0.7	-0.03	fair
92	BUF	Will Borgen	D	382	86	2.6	0.7	+0.44	great value
93	CAR	Callum Booth	G	0	—	0.0	0.9	-0.48	poor value
94	STL	Adam Musil	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
95	TOR	Jesper Lindgren	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
96	CAR	Nicolas Roy	F	449	195	3.2	0.6	+0.54	STEAL
97	NJD	Colton White	D	107	14	0.5	0.7	-0.11	fair
98	PHI	Samuel Dove-McFalls	F	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
99	LAK	Austin Wagner	F	178	42	0.8	0.6	+0.10	fair
100	NSH	Anthony Richard	F	40	14	0.2	0.6	-0.21	fair
101	COL	Andrei Mironov	D	10	3	0.1	0.7	-0.36	poor value
102	FLA	Denis Malgin	F	257	81	1.3	0.6	+0.26	great value
103	DAL	Chris Martenet	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.41	poor value
104	PHI	Mikhail Vorobyev	F	35	5	0.1	0.6	-0.26	poor value
105	BOS	Jesse Gabrielle	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
106	SJS	Adam Helewka	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
107	OTT	Christian Wolanin	D	86	23	0.6	0.7	-0.04	fair
108	WPG	Michael Spacek	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
109	OTT	Filip Ahl	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
110	DET	Joren Van Pottelberghe	G	0	—	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
111	MIN	Ales Stezka	G	1	—	0.0	0.6	-0.36	poor value
112	NYI	Parker Wotherspoon	D	194	46	1.4	0.7	+0.24	fair
113	NYR	Brad Morrison	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
114	VAN	Dmitry Zhukenov	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
115	NSH	Alexandre Carrier	D	377	113	3.1	0.7	+0.50	STEAL
116	STL	Glenn Gawdin	F	13	1	0.0	0.5	-0.30	poor value
117	EDM	Caleb Jones	D	255	56	1.6	0.7	+0.28	great value
118	TBL	Jonne Tammela	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
119	NYR	Daniel Bernhardt	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
120	TBL	Mathieu Joseph	F	479	164	2.9	0.5	+0.55	STEAL
121	CHI	Ryan Shea	D	158	44	1.3	0.7	+0.22	fair
122	BUF	Devante Stephens	D	0	0	0.0	0.7	-0.40	poor value
123	ARI	Conor Garland	F	562	324	4.9	0.5	+0.69	STEAL
124	EDM	Ethan Bear	D	275	67	2.0	0.7	+0.38	great value
125	TOR	Dmytro Timashov	F	45	9	0.2	0.5	-0.18	fair
126	CAR	Luke Stevens	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
127	STL	Niko Mikkola	D	405	75	2.7	0.6	+0.48	great value
128	PHI	David Kase	F	7	1	0.0	0.5	-0.29	poor value
129	CBJ	Sam Ruopp	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
130	SJS	Karlis Cukste	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.38	poor value
131	MTL	Matthew Bradley	F	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
132	FLA	Karch Bachman	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
133	DAL	Joseph Cecconi	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.37	poor value
134	LAK	Matt Schmalz	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.31	poor value
135	MIN	Kirill Kaprizov	F	405	489	6.3	0.4	+0.76	STEAL
136	CGY	Pavel Karnaukhov	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
137	PIT	Dominik Simon	F	256	77	1.3	0.4	+0.32	great value
138	CAR	Spencer Smallman	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.30	poor value
139	OTT	Christian Jaros	D	94	14	0.4	0.6	-0.06	fair
140	DET	Chase Pearson	F	3	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
141	CBJ	Veeti Vainio	D	0	0	0.0	0.6	-0.35	poor value
142	SJS	Rudolfs Balcers	F	170	62	1.1	0.4	+0.28	great value
143	WSH	Connor Hobbs	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
144	VAN	Carl Neill	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.35	poor value
145	NSH	Karel Vejmelka	G	270	—	3.4	0.3	+0.66	STEAL
146	STL	Luke Opilka	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
147	NYI	Ryan Pilon	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.34	poor value
148	ANA	Troy Terry	F	488	342	4.8	0.4	+0.71	STEAL
149	VAN	Adam Gaudette	F	367	121	2.0	0.4	+0.47	great value
150	TBL	Ryan Zuhlsdorf	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.33	poor value
151	CHI	Radovan Bondra	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
152	BUF	Giorgio Estephan	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
153	TBL	Kristian Oldham	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
154	EDM	John Marino	D	452	162	4.4	0.5	+0.66	STEAL
155	TOR	Stephen Desrocher	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
156	CAR	Jake Massie	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.32	poor value
157	NJD	Brett Seney	F	66	14	0.2	0.4	-0.09	fair
158	PHI	Cooper Marody	F	7	1	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
159	CBJ	Vladislav Gavrikov	D	527	175	4.9	0.5	+0.70	STEAL
160	SJS	Adam Parsells	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
161	COL	Sergei Boikov	D	0	0	0.0	0.5	-0.31	poor value
162	FLA	Christopher Wilkie	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
163	DAL	Markus Ruusu	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
164	CHI	Roy Radke	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
165	BOS	Cameron Hughes	F	5	1	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
166	CGY	Andrew Mangiapane	F	561	259	4.1	0.4	+0.68	STEAL
167	PIT	Frederik Tiffels	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
168	WPG	Mason Appleton	F	467	152	2.8	0.4	+0.58	STEAL
169	CAR	David Cotton	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
170	DET	Patrick Holway	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
171	MIN	Nicholas Boka	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
172	NYI	Andong Song	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
173	WSH	Colby Williams	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.29	poor value
174	VAN	Lukas Jasek	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
175	NSH	Tyler Moy	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
176	STL	Liam Dunda	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
177	MTL	Simon Bourque	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
178	ANA	Steven Ruggiero	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.28	poor value
179	ANA	Garrett Metcalf	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
180	TBL	Bokondji Imama	F	42	2	0.2	0.4	-0.14	fair
181	CHI	Joni Tuulola	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
182	BUF	Ivan Chukarov	D	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
183	ARI	Erik Kallgren	G	24	—	0.2	0.3	-0.05	fair
184	NYR	Adam Huska	G	1	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
185	TOR	Nikita Korostelev	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
186	CAR	Steven Lorentz	F	381	80	1.5	0.4	+0.41	great value
187	LAK	Chaz Reddekopp	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
188	PHI	Ivan Fedotov	G	29	—	0.2	0.3	-0.07	fair
189	CBJ	Markus Nutivaara	D	275	71	1.9	0.3	+0.48	great value
190	SJS	Marcus Vela	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
191	COL	Gustav Olhaver	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
192	FLA	Patrick Shea	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
193	SJS	Jake Kupsky	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
194	LAK	Matt Roy	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.27	poor value
195	BOS	Jack Becker	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
196	CGY	Riley Bruce	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
197	PIT	Nikita Pavlychev	F	0	0	0.0	0.4	-0.26	poor value
198	WPG	Sami Niku	D	67	16	0.4	0.3	+0.06	fair
199	OTT	Joey Daccord	G	178	—	2.5	0.3	+0.57	STEAL
200	DET	Adam Marsh	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
201	MIN	Gustav Bouramman	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
202	NYI	Petter Hansson	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
203	WPG	Matteo Gennaro	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.26	poor value
204	MIN	Jack Sadek	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
205	NSH	Evan Smith	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
206	FLA	Ryan Bednard	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
207	MTL	Jeremiah Addison	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	poor value
208	EDM	Miroslav Svoboda	G	0	—	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
209	EDM	Ziyat Paigin	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
210	VAN	Tate Olson	D	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.24	fair
211	CHI	John Dahlstrom	F	0	0	0.0	0.3	-0.25	fair

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

1	2004 · #262	Mark StreitD · MTL	+0.84
2	2003 · #245	Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI	+0.82
3	2007 · #129	Jamie BennF · DAL	+0.82
4	2002 · #241	Dennis WidemanD · BUF	+0.81
5	2012 · #130	Connor HellebuyckG · WPG	+0.80
6	2001 · #176	Marek ZidlickyD · NYR	+0.80
7	2003 · #205	Joe PavelskiF · SJS	+0.80
8	2011 · #104	Johnny GaudreauF · CGY	+0.80
9	2000 · #118	Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK	+0.79
10	2011 · #208	Ondrej PalatF · TBL	+0.79
11	2003 · #239	Toby EnstromD · ATL	+0.79
12	2010 · #178	Mark StoneF · OTT	+0.79
13	2005 · #105	Keith YandleD · PHX	+0.78
14	2000 · #205	Henrik LundqvistG · NYR	+0.78
15	2013 · #206	MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA	+0.77
16	2008 · #156	Jared SpurgeonD · NYI	+0.77
17	2010 · #131	John KlingbergD · DAL	+0.77
18	2004 · #258	Pekka RinneG · NSH	+0.76
19	2005 · #230	Patric HornqvistF · NSH	+0.76
20	2000 · #159	John-Michael LilesD · COL	+0.76
21	2003 · #263	Matt MoulsonF · PIT	+0.76
22	2014 · #79	Brayden PointF · TBL	+0.76
23	2015 · #135	Kirill KaprizovF · MIN	+0.76
24	2005 · #216	Anton StralmanD · TOR	+0.76
25	2010 · #147	Brendan GallagherF · MTL	+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

1	2000 · #7	Lars JonssonD · BOS	-0.82
2	2012 · #4	Griffin ReinhartD · NYI	-0.81
3	2008 · #6	Nikita FilatovF · CBJ	-0.77
4	2002 · #15	Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM	-0.77
5	2005 · #16	Alex BourretF · ATL	-0.77
6	2005 · #13	Marek ZagrapanF · BUF	-0.77
7	2008 · #11	Kyle BeachF · CHI	-0.77
8	2000 · #15	Artem KriukovF · BUF	-0.77
9	2009 · #8	Scott GlennieF · DAL	-0.77
10	2003 · #12	Hugh JessimanF · NYR	-0.77
11	2002 · #9	Petr TaticekF · FLA	-0.77
12	2007 · #17	Alexei CherepanovF · NYR	-0.77
13	2004 · #11	Lauri TukonenF · LAK	-0.77
14	2000 · #17	Alexei MikhnovF · EDM	-0.77
15	2001 · #18	Jens KarlssonF · LAK	-0.76
16	2007 · #19	Logan MacmillanF · ANA	-0.76
17	2002 · #19	Jakub KoreisF · PHX	-0.76
18	2007 · #20	Angelo EspositoF · PIT	-0.76
19	2008 · #21	Anton GustafssonF · WSH	-0.76
20	2011 · #22	Tyler BiggsF · TOR	-0.76
21	2011 · #18	Mark McNeillF · CHI	-0.76
22	2013 · #22	Emile PoirierF · CGY	-0.75
23	2004 · #24	Kris ChuckoF · CGY	-0.75
24	2010 · #17	Joey HishonF · COL	-0.75
25	2000 · #23	Nathan SmithF · VAN	-0.75