CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2016 draft class210 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1TORAuston MatthewsF69879310.410.1+0.01fairthru yr 11
2WPGPatrik LaineF5374225.88.1-0.15fairthru yr 11
3CBJPierre-Luc DuboisF6314316.16.7-0.05fairthru yr 11
4EDMJesse PuljujarviF3871282.36.2-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
5VANOlli JuoleviD4130.25.2-0.79BUSTthru yr 11
6CGYMatthew TkachukF6826848.94.9+0.27great valuethru yr 11
7ARIClayton KellerF6926078.24.9+0.23fairthru yr 11
8BUFAlex NylanderF126490.83.0-0.46poor valuethru yr 11
9MTLMikhail SergachevD6393798.34.7+0.25great valuethru yr 11
10COLTyson JostF5641653.03.0+0.00fairthru yr 11
11OTTLogan BrownF99260.43.0-0.57BUSTthru yr 11
12NJDMichael McLeodF287851.63.0-0.25poor valuethru yr 11
13CARJake BeanD277651.81.5+0.09fairthru yr 11
14BOSCharlie McAvoyD5763637.91.5+0.62STEALthru yr 11
15MINLuke KuninF4961522.83.0-0.02fairthru yr 11
16ARIJakob ChychrunD6293277.61.5+0.61STEALthru yr 11
17NSHDante FabbroD4511093.21.5+0.31great valuethru yr 11
18WPGLogan StanleyD286662.01.5+0.11fairthru yr 11
19NYIKieffer BellowsF114320.52.8-0.52BUSTthru yr 11
20DETDennis CholowskiD173421.21.5-0.08fairthru yr 11
21CARJulien GauthierF181410.72.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
22PHIGerman RubtsovF400.02.8-0.73BUSTthru yr 11
23FLAHenrik BorgstromF111260.52.7-0.54BUSTthru yr 11
24ANAMax JonesF310691.52.6-0.21fairthru yr 11
25DALRiley TufteF2840.12.6-0.68BUSTthru yr 11
26STLTage ThompsonF5384155.62.5+0.34great valuethru yr 11
27TBLBrett HowdenF4991703.12.4+0.10fairthru yr 11
28WSHLucas JohansenD920.01.5-0.56BUSTthru yr 11
29BOSTrent FredericF4201172.12.2-0.01fairthru yr 11
30ANASam SteelF4991783.22.0+0.20fairthru yr 11
31TOREgor KorshkovF110.01.8-0.64BUSTthru yr 11
32EDMTyler BensonF3830.11.7-0.57BUSTthru yr 11
33BUFRasmus AsplundF189491.01.5-0.15fairthru yr 11
34CBJAndrew PeekeD395782.71.4+0.25great valuethru yr 11
35STLJordan KyrouF4963835.21.2+0.54STEALthru yr 11
36PHIPascal LabergeF000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 11
37TBLLibor HajekD110120.61.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 11
39CHIAlex DeBrincatF7046048.31.1+0.68STEALthru yr 11
40COLCam MorrisonF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 11
41NJDNathan BastianF312751.41.1+0.07fairthru yr 11
42OTTJonathan DahlenF61220.41.1-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
43CARJanne KuokkanenF119420.91.1-0.09fairthru yr 11
44TBLBoris KatchoukF179360.71.1-0.16fairthru yr 11
45CHIChad KrysD000.01.3-0.56BUSTthru yr 11
46DETGivani SmithF168220.51.1-0.24fairthru yr 11
47NSHSamuel GirardD6172496.31.3+0.58STEALthru yr 11
48PHICarter HartG251—3.60.9+0.49great valuethru yr 11
49BOSRyan LindgrenD4851113.51.3+0.38great valuethru yr 11
50CHIArtur KayumovF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 11
51LAKKale ClagueD94210.61.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
52PHIWade AllisonF75220.41.1-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
53DETFilip HronekD5432936.91.3+0.61STEALthru yr 11
54CGYTyler ParsonsG0—0.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
55PITFilip GustavssonG219—3.10.9+0.43great valuethru yr 11
56CGYDillon DubeF3281282.11.1+0.24fairthru yr 11
57TORCarl GrundstromF344891.71.1+0.15fairthru yr 11
58TBLTaylor RaddyshF3741192.01.1+0.21fairthru yr 11
59STLEvan FitzpatrickG0—0.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
60SJSDylan GambrellF233401.11.1-0.02fairthru yr 11
61PITKasper BjorkqvistF610.01.1-0.51BUSTthru yr 11
62TORJoseph WollG122—1.80.9+0.25fairthru yr 11
63EDMMarkus NiemelainenD4310.11.2-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
64VANWilliam LockwoodF5420.11.0-0.42poor valuethru yr 11
65CBJVitaly AbramovF510.01.0-0.48poor valuethru yr 11
66CGYAdam FoxD4964318.61.0+0.71STEALthru yr 11
67CARMatt FilipeF000.00.9-0.49poor valuethru yr 11
68ARICam DineenD3870.21.0-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
69BUFCliff PuF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
70MTLWilliam BittenF410.00.9-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
71COLJosh AndersonD000.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 11
72TORJames GreenwayD000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 11
73NJDJoey AndersonF169400.80.8-0.02fairthru yr 11
74CARHudson ElynuikF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 11
75CARJack LaFontaineG2—0.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
76NSHRem PitlickF132540.80.7+0.03fairthru yr 11
77PITConnor HallD000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 11
78NSHFrederic AllardD400.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
79WPGLuke GreenD000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 11
80NJDBrandon GignacF810.00.7-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
81NYRSean DayD200.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 11
82PHICarsen TwarynskiF2210.10.7-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
83CHIWouter PeetersG0—0.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 11
84EDMMatthew CairnsD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 11
85ANAJoshua MahuraD000.00.7-0.39poor valuethru yr 11
86BUFCasey FitzgeraldD6390.30.6-0.18fairthru yr 11
87WSHGarrett PilonF310.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
88TBLConnor IngramG134—1.50.9+0.18fairthru yr 11
89FLALinus NassenD000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
90DALFredrik KarlstromF810.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
91EDMFilip BerglundD000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
92TORAdam BrooksF43110.20.5-0.18fairthru yr 11
93ANAJack KopackaF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
94FLAJonathan AngF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
95NYIAnatolii GolyshevF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
96CGYLinus LindstromF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
97WPGJacob CederholmD000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
98NYRTarmo ReunanenD410.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
99BUFBrett MurrayF2660.10.5-0.25fairthru yr 11
100MTLVictor MeteD248451.50.6+0.28great valuethru yr 11
101TORKeaton MiddletonD4730.10.6-0.26poor valuethru yr 11
102NJDMikhail MaltsevF5690.30.5-0.14fairthru yr 11
103OTTTodd BurgessF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
104CARMax ZimmerF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
105NJDEvan CormierG0—0.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
106MINBrandon DuhaimeF384701.60.5+0.35great valuethru yr 11
107DETAlfons MalmstromD000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 11
108NSHHardy Haman AktellD610.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
109PHIConnor BunnamanF5430.20.5-0.19fairthru yr 11
110CHILucas CarlssonD73150.40.6-0.09fairthru yr 11
111SJSNoah GregorF330791.50.5+0.35great valuethru yr 11
112LAKJacob MoverareD109110.40.6-0.10fairthru yr 11
113CHINathan NoelF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
114FLARiley StillmanD167260.90.6+0.12fairthru yr 11
115ANAAlex DostieF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
116DALRhett GardnerF4120.10.5-0.21fairthru yr 11
117WSHDamien RiatF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
118TBLRoss ColtonF4121782.80.5+0.55STEALthru yr 11
119STLTanner KaspickF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
120NYIOtto KoivulaF2840.10.5-0.24fairthru yr 11
121PITRyan JonesD000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 11
122TORVladimir BobylevF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 11
123EDMDylan WellsG1—0.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 11
124MTLCasey StaumD000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 11
125STLNolan StevensF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
126CGYMitchell MattsonF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
127WPGJordy StallardF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
128DALColton PointG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
129BUFPhilip NybergD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
130BUFVojtech BudikD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 11
131COLAdam WernerG2—0.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 11
132NJDYegor RykovD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 11
133OTTMaxime LajoieD77160.50.5-0.03fairthru yr 11
134CARJeremy HelvigG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
135BOSJoona KoppanenF3330.10.4-0.21fairthru yr 11
136BOSCam ClarkeD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
137DETJordan SambrookD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 11
138NSHPatrick HarperF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
139PHILinus HogbergD520.00.5-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
140VANCole CandellaD000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 11
141NYRTim GettingerF1610.00.4-0.25poor valuethru yr 11
142LAKMichael EyssimontF269741.20.4+0.31great valuethru yr 11
143CHIMathias FromF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
144STLConner BleackleyF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
145WSHBeck MalenstynF271501.10.4+0.29great valuethru yr 11
146DALNick CaamanoF3630.10.4-0.18fairthru yr 11
147WSHAxel Jonsson-FjallbyF99230.40.4-0.01fairthru yr 11
148TBLChristopher PaquetteF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
149EDMGraham McPheeF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
150SJSManuel WiedererF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
151PITNiclas AlmariD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
152TORJonathan WalkerD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 11
153EDMAapeli RasanenF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
154VANJakob StukelF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
155CBJPeter ThomeG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
156CGYEetu TuulolaF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
157WPGMikhail BerdinG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
158ARIPatrick KudlaD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 11
159BUFBrandon HagelF4543825.20.4+0.74STEALthru yr 11
160MTLMichael PezzettaF209380.60.4+0.13fairthru yr 11
161COLNathan ClurmanD100.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 11
162NJDJesper BrattF6425257.10.4+0.79STEALthru yr 11
163OTTMarkus NurmiF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
164CARNoah CarrollD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 11
165BOSOskar SteenF6080.20.4-0.11fairthru yr 11
166CGYMatthew PhillipsF3450.10.4-0.17fairthru yr 11
167DETFilip LarssonG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
168NSHKonstantin VolkovG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
169PHITanner LaczynskiF56100.20.4-0.11fairthru yr 11
170NYICollin AdamsF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 11
171NYRGabriel FontaineF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 11
172PHIAnthony SalinitriF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 11
173CHIBlake HillmanD410.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
174NYRTyler WallG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 11
175FLAMaxim MaminF73180.30.3-0.02fairthru yr 11
176DALJakob StenqvistD000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 11
177WSHChase PriskieD400.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
178TBLOleg SosunovD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 11
179TORNicolas MattinenD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 11
180SJSMark ShoemakerD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
181PITJoseph MasoniusD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
182TORNikolai ChebykinF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 11
183EDMVincent DesharnaisD226291.30.3+0.37great valuethru yr 11
184VANRodrigo AbolsF64150.30.3-0.05fairthru yr 11
185CBJCalvin ThurkaufF300.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
186CGYStepan FalkovskyD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
187MTLArvid HenriksonD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
188ARIDean StewartD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
189BUFAustin OsmanskiD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
190BUFVasily GlotovF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
191COLTravis BarronF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
192NJDJeremy DaviesD2330.10.3-0.11fairthru yr 11
193NYINick PastujovF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
194VANBrett McKenzieF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
195FLABen FinkelsteinD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
196MINDmitry SokolovF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
197DETMattias ElfstromF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 11
198NSHAdam SmithD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
199PHIDavid BernhardtD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
200NYIDavid QuennevilleD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
201NYRTy RonningF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
202LAKJacob FriendD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
203CHIJake RyczekD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
204MINBraydyn ChizenD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
205ANATyler SoyF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
206TBLOtto SomppiF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
207WSHDmitriy ZaitsevD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11
208TBLRyan LohinF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
209STLNikolaj Krag ChristensenF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 11
210SJSJoachim BlichfeldF810.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 11
211STLFilip HeltF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 11

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75