CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2017 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NJDNico HischierF6174936.89.0-0.13fairthru yr 10
2PHINolan PatrickF222771.36.9-0.60BUSTthru yr 10
3DALMiro HeiskanenD5603527.95.3+0.18fairthru yr 10
4COLCale MakarD4775169.75.3+0.28great valuethru yr 10
5VANElias PetterssonF5555186.94.8+0.16fairthru yr 10
6VGKCody GlassF3301202.14.3-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
7NYRLias AnderssonF110170.44.3-0.68BUSTthru yr 10
8BUFCasey MittelstadtF5182814.32.9+0.17fairthru yr 10
9DETMichael RasmussenF4621562.82.9-0.01fairthru yr 10
10FLAOwen TippettF4372383.72.9+0.10fairthru yr 10
11LAKGabriel VilardiF3602473.62.9+0.10fairthru yr 10
12CARMartin NecasF5274366.12.9+0.32great valuethru yr 10
13VGKNick SuzukiF5454866.82.9+0.36great valuethru yr 10
14TBLCal FooteD145200.71.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
15VGKErik BrannstromD294772.11.3+0.17fairthru yr 10
16CGYJuuso VälimäkiD271722.01.3+0.14fairthru yr 10
17TORTimothy LiljegrenD319942.51.3+0.24fairthru yr 10
18BOSUrho VaakanainenD221461.31.3-0.00fairthru yr 10
19SJSJosh NorrisF2921953.12.6+0.08fairthru yr 10
20STLRobert ThomasF5384646.22.5+0.38great valuethru yr 10
21NYRFilip ChytilF4071752.82.5+0.05fairthru yr 10
22EDMKailer YamamotoF3781642.82.5+0.05fairthru yr 10
23ARIPierre-Olivier JosephD225461.31.3-0.02fairthru yr 10
24WPGKristian VesalainenF7050.22.4-0.62BUSTthru yr 10
25MTLRyan PoehlingF3631332.22.3-0.02fairthru yr 10
26DALJake OettingerG311—4.90.8+0.60STEALthru yr 10
27PHIMorgan FrostF3991933.02.2+0.13fairthru yr 10
28OTTShane BowersF1300.02.1-0.67BUSTthru yr 10
29CHIHenri JokiharjuD4481123.31.3+0.34great valuethru yr 10
30NSHEeli TolvanenF4331943.21.8+0.23fairthru yr 10
31STLKlim KostinF190530.81.6-0.24fairthru yr 10
32COLConor TimminsD198541.41.3+0.02fairthru yr 10
33VANKole LindF3180.11.4-0.48poor valuethru yr 10
34VGKNicolas HagueD434993.21.3+0.35great valuethru yr 10
35PHIIsaac RatcliffeF1040.11.1-0.48poor valuethru yr 10
36NJDJesper BoqvistF3931082.01.1+0.22fairthru yr 10
37BUFMarcus DavidssonF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 10
38DETGustav LindstromD174351.01.2-0.06fairthru yr 10
39DALJason RobertsonF4644976.41.1+0.63STEALthru yr 10
40FLAAleksi HeponiemiF2560.11.1-0.43poor valuethru yr 10
41LAKJaret Anderson-DolanF134290.61.1-0.16fairthru yr 10
42CAREetu LuostarinenF4561643.01.1+0.38great valuethru yr 10
43WPGDylan SambergD290672.11.2+0.22fairthru yr 10
44ARIFilip WesterlundD000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 10
45CBJAlexandre TexierF2911142.11.0+0.25great valuethru yr 10
46NYIRobin SaloD3290.21.2-0.41poor valuethru yr 10
47OTTAlex FormentonF117420.91.0-0.06fairthru yr 10
48TBLAlexander VolkovF46140.31.0-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
49SJSMario FerraroD4981154.01.2+0.45great valuethru yr 10
50ANAMaxime ComtoisF211871.61.0+0.15fairthru yr 10
51PITZachary LauzonD000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 10
52CARLuke MartinD000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 10
53BOSJack StudnickaF129160.51.0-0.23fairthru yr 10
54BUFUkko-Pekka LuukkonenG197—2.90.8+0.43great valuethru yr 10
55VANJonah GadjovichF170210.41.0-0.24fairthru yr 10
56MTLJosh BrookD000.01.2-0.54BUSTthru yr 10
57CHIIan MitchellD110190.71.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
58MTLJoni IkonenF000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 10
59TOREemeli RasanenD000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 10
60ANAAntoine MorandF000.01.0-0.49poor valuethru yr 10
61NSHGrant MismashF000.01.0-0.49poor valuethru yr 10
62VGKJake LeschyshynF7760.20.9-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
63NJDFabian ZetterlundF3381522.40.9+0.35great valuethru yr 10
64VANMichael DiPietroG6—0.20.8-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
65VGKJonas RondbjergF80110.30.9-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
66FLAMax GildonD000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 10
67CARMorgan GeekieF4232353.40.8+0.50STEALthru yr 10
68MTLScott WalfordD000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 10
69ARIMacKenzie EntwistleF193350.70.8-0.02fairthru yr 10
70CHIAndrei AltybarmakianF000.00.7-0.43poor valuethru yr 10
71DETKasper KotkansaloD000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 10
72LAKMatt VillaltaG3—0.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 10
73CARStelio MattheosF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 10
74WPGJohnathan KovacevicD261531.60.7+0.29great valuethru yr 10
75ARINate SchnarrF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 10
76TBLAlexey LipanovF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
77NYIBenjamin MirageasD000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
78EDMStuart SkinnerG229—3.30.8+0.48great valuethru yr 10
79DETLane ZablockiF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 10
80PHIKirill UstimenkoG0—0.00.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 10
81NJDReilly WalshD110.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 10
82ARICameron CrottyD1110.10.6-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
83DETZach GallantF000.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
84EDMDmitri SamorukovD300.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 10
85MINIvan LodniaF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
86CBJDaniil TarasovG101—1.10.8+0.11fairthru yr 10
87MTLCale FleuryD10370.40.5-0.04fairthru yr 10
88DETKeith PetruzzelliG0—0.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 10
89BUFOskari LaaksonenD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 10
90CHIEvan BarrattF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
91ANAJack BadiniF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
92NSHDavid FarranceD200.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
93PITClayton PhillipsD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
94COLNick HenryF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
95VANJack RathboneD2850.20.5-0.20fairthru yr 10
96VGKMaksim ZhukovG0—0.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 10
97MINMason ShawF82200.30.5-0.07fairthru yr 10
98NJDNikita PopugaevF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
99BUFJacob BrysonD304511.70.5+0.37great valuethru yr 10
100DETMalte SetkovD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
101DALLiam HawelF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
102SJSScott ReedyF3590.20.4-0.18fairthru yr 10
103LAKMikey AndersonD4311033.40.5+0.59STEALthru yr 10
104CAREetu MakiniemiG2—0.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
105WPGSanteri VirtanenF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
106PHIMatthew StromeF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
107PHIMaksim SushkoF200.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
108ARINoel HoefenmayerD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
109CGYAdam RuzickaF117400.60.4+0.08fairthru yr 10
110TORIan ScottG0—0.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
111BOSJeremy SwaymanG252—4.60.4+0.69STEALthru yr 10
112CHITim SoderlundF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
113STLAlexey ToropchenkoF325711.40.4+0.34great valuethru yr 10
114COLPetr KvacaG0—0.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
115EDMOstap SafinF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
116MINBryce MisleyF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
117CBJEmil BemstromF242751.30.4+0.32great valuethru yr 10
118LAKMarkus PhillipsD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
119CHIRoope LaavainenD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
120WSHTobias GeisserD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
121OTTDrake BathersonF4793705.20.4+0.73STEALthru yr 10
122ANAKyle OlsonF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
123NYRBrandon CrawleyD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 10
124TORVladislav KaraF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
125COLIgor ShvyrevF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
126ARIMichael KarowD000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 10
127VGKLucas ElvenesF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
128ARITyler SteenbergenF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
129NJDGilles SennG2—0.00.3-0.19fairthru yr 10
130STLDavid NoelD000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
131DETCole FraserD000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 10
132DALJacob PetersonF83250.40.4+0.02fairthru yr 10
133FLATyler InamotoD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
134LAKCole HultsD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
135VANKristoffer GunnarssonD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
136WPGLeon GawankeD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 10
137PHINoah CatesF3271492.40.4+0.54STEALthru yr 10
138LAKDrake RymshaF100.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
139NYISebastian AhoD190501.30.4+0.32great valuethru yr 10
140CGYZach FischerF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
141TORFedor GordeevD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 10
142VGKJack DuganF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
143NJDMarián StudenicF4660.20.4-0.13fairthru yr 10
144CHIParker FooF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
145NYRCalle SjalinD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 10
146EDMKirill MaksimovF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
147MINJacob GoldenD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
148CBJKale HowarthF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 10
149MTLJarret TyszkaD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 10
150CHIJakub GalvasD600.00.4-0.25fairthru yr 10
151WSHSebastian WalfridssonD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 10
152PITJan DrozgF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 10
153ANAOlle Eriksson EkG1—0.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
154NSHTomas VomackaG0—0.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
155PITLinus OlundF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 10
156COLDenis SmirnovF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 10
157NYRDominik LakatosF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 10
158VGKNick CampoliF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
159SJSJacob McGrewF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
160NJDAarne TalvitieF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
161VGKJiri PateraG9—0.10.2-0.13fairthru yr 10
162DETJohn AdamsF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
163DALBrett DavisF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
164DETReilly WebbD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
165NYIArnaud DurandeauF400.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
166CARBrendan De JongD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 10
167WPGArvid HolmG0—0.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
168PHIOlle LycksellF52130.20.3-0.06fairthru yr 10
169TBLNick PerbixD307762.20.3+0.54STEALthru yr 10
170CBJJonathan DavidssonF610.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
171CGYD'Artagnan JolyF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
172TORRyan McGregorF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
173BOSCedric PareF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
174NYRMorgan BarronF329851.60.3+0.45great valuethru yr 10
175STLTrenton BourqueD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
176NSHPavel KoltyginF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
177EDMSkyler Brind'AmourF610.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 10
178MINAndrei SvetlakovF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 10
179CBJCarson MeyerF4160.10.3-0.12fairthru yr 10
180TBLCole GuttmanF41140.20.3-0.04fairthru yr 10
181VANPetrus PalmuF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
182WSHBenton MaassD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 10
183OTTJordan HollettG0—0.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
184FLASebastian RepoF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 10
185SJSSasha ChmelevskiF24100.20.3-0.08fairthru yr 10
186PITAntti PalojarviD000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 10
187COLNick LeivermannD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
188VANMatt BrassardD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
189VGKBen JonesF5630.10.3-0.11fairthru yr 10
190ARIErik Walli WalterholmF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 10
191NJDJocktan ChaineyD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
192BUFLinus WeissbachF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 10
193DETBrady GilmourF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 10
194DALDylan FergusonG3—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 10
195BOSVictor BerglundD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
196PHIWyatt KalynukD2690.30.2+0.03fairthru yr 10
197CARVille RasanenD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
198WPGSkyler McKenzieF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 10
199MTLCayden PrimeauG58—0.60.2+0.17fairthru yr 10
200TBLSammy WalkerF1320.00.3-0.17fairthru yr 10
201NYILogan CockerillF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 10
202CGYFilip SveningssonF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 10
203TORRyan O'ConnellD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
204BOSDaniel BukacD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
205NJDYegor ZaitsevD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
206STLAnton AnderssonD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
207NYRPatrik VirtaF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
208EDMPhilip KempD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
209MINNick SwaneyF100.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 10
210CBJRobbie StuckerD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
211WPGCroix EvingsonD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
212SJSIvan ChekhovichF410.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 10
213WSHKristian Roykas MarthinsenF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
214NJDMatthew HellicksonD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
215CHIJoshua EssD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
216NSHJacob PaquetteD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10
217PITWilliam ReillyD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 10

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75