CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2018 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1BUFRasmus DahlinD5924389.07.1+0.11fairthru yr 9
2CARAndrei SvechnikovF5664456.26.1+0.01fairthru yr 9
3MTLJesperi KotkaniemiF5252063.45.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
4OTTBrady TkachukF5814736.65.1+0.12fairthru yr 9
5ARIBarrett HaytonF3671612.74.1-0.19fairthru yr 9
6DETFilip ZadinaF262911.73.8-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
7VANQuinn HughesD5154979.74.4+0.35great valuethru yr 9
8CHIAdam BoqvistD2721032.44.1-0.23fairthru yr 9
9NYRVitali KravtsovF64120.32.7-0.61BUSTthru yr 9
10EDMEvan BouchardD4373496.62.0+0.48great valuethru yr 9
11NYIOliver WahlstromF236731.32.7-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
12NYINoah DobsonD4762796.02.0+0.45great valuethru yr 9
13DALTy DellandreaF267611.32.7-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
14PHIJoel FarabeeF5042494.22.5+0.21fairthru yr 9
15FLAGrigori DenisenkoF3370.22.4-0.64BUSTthru yr 9
16COLMartin KautF56110.22.3-0.60BUSTthru yr 9
17NJDTy SmithD131491.32.0-0.15fairthru yr 9
18CBJLiam FoudyF105220.52.2-0.47poor valuethru yr 9
19PHIJay O'BrienF000.02.2-0.68BUSTthru yr 9
20LAKRasmus KupariF217380.82.2-0.36poor valuethru yr 9
21SJSRyan MerkleyD3960.21.9-0.55BUSTthru yr 9
22NYRK'Andre MillerD4491724.51.7+0.39great valuethru yr 9
23ANAIsac LundeströmF405962.02.1-0.02fairthru yr 9
24MINFilip JohanssonD000.01.5-0.61BUSTthru yr 9
25STLDominik BokkF000.02.0-0.67BUSTthru yr 9
26OTTJacob Bernard-DockerD207291.01.5-0.16fairthru yr 9
27CHINicolas BeaudinD2260.21.5-0.49poor valuethru yr 9
28NYRNils LundkvistD243571.61.5+0.02fairthru yr 9
29TORRasmus SandinD3821453.31.5+0.31great valuethru yr 9
30DETJoe VelenoF371861.71.6+0.03fairthru yr 9
31WSHAlexander AlexeyevD8080.31.3-0.38poor valuethru yr 9
32BUFMattias SamuelssonD299912.61.3+0.28great valuethru yr 9
33DETJonatan BerggrenF213841.41.2+0.05fairthru yr 9
34FLASerron NoelF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 9
35MTLJesse YlonenF111290.51.0-0.20fairthru yr 9
36DETJared McIsaacD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
37VANJett WooD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
38MTLAlexander RomanovD372842.71.0+0.35great valuethru yr 9
39NYROlof LindbomG0—0.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 9
40EDMRyan McLeodF3881842.90.9+0.40great valuethru yr 9
41NYIBode WildeD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
42CARJack DruryF276841.60.9+0.18fairthru yr 9
43NYIRuslan IskhakovF110.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 9
44DALAlbin ErikssonF000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 9
45STLScott PerunovichD108320.71.0-0.11fairthru yr 9
46WSHMartin FehérváryD3881033.01.0+0.39great valuethru yr 9
47WSHKody ClarkF000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 9
48OTTJonathan TychonickD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
49CBJKirill MarchenkoF3012173.10.9+0.43great valuethru yr 9
50PHIAdam GinningD1610.11.0-0.47poor valuethru yr 9
51LAKAkil ThomasF3270.10.9-0.39poor valuethru yr 9
52TORSean DurziD3121473.41.0+0.43great valuethru yr 9
53PITCalen AddisonD152501.11.0+0.03fairthru yr 9
54ANABo GroulxF84100.40.9-0.24fairthru yr 9
55ARIKevin BahlD304642.21.0+0.27great valuethru yr 9
56MTLJacob OlofssonF000.00.9-0.47poor valuethru yr 9
57BOSAxel AnderssonD000.01.0-0.51BUSTthru yr 9
58PITFilip HallanderF2270.20.9-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
59TBLGabriel FortierF1110.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 9
60WPGDavid GustafssonF149200.40.8-0.17fairthru yr 9
61VGKIvan MorozovF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 9
62EDMOlivier RodrigueG2—0.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 9
63MINJack McBainF3251091.90.8+0.32great valuethru yr 9
64COLJustus AnnunenG80—1.20.7+0.17fairthru yr 9
65ARIJan JenikF2460.10.7-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
66MTLCam HillisF100.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 9
67DETAlec RegulaD5140.20.7-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
68VANTyler MaddenF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 9
69CHIJake WiseF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 9
70NYRJacob RagnarssonD000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 9
71MTLJordan HarrisD172401.10.6+0.16fairthru yr 9
72NYIJakub SkarekG2—0.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 9
73ARITy EmbersonD184361.10.6+0.20fairthru yr 9
74CHINiklas NordgrenF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 9
75DALOskar BackF152290.70.5+0.07fairthru yr 9
76TORSemyon Der-ArguchintsevF100.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 9
77BOSJakub LaukoF139280.50.5-0.01fairthru yr 9
78COLSampo RantaF1600.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 9
79ANABlake McLaughlinF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
80CBJMarcus KarlbergF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
81DETSeth BartonD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 9
82LAKBulat ShafigullinF000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 9
83TORRiley StottsF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 9
84DETJesper EliassonG0—0.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 9
85ANALukas DostalG183—2.30.7+0.41great valuethru yr 9
86MINAlexander KhovanovF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 9
87SJSLinus KarlssonF116480.90.4+0.19fairthru yr 9
88NYRJoey KeaneD200.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
89FLALogan HutskoF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
90TBLDmitry SemykinD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
91WPGNate SmithF1440.10.4-0.22fairthru yr 9
92MINConnor DewarF325851.60.4+0.41great valuethru yr 9
93WSHRiley SutterF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
94BUFMatej PekarF000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
95OTTJonathan GrudenF1610.00.4-0.25fairthru yr 9
96CARLuke HenmanF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
97MTLAllan McShaneF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
98DETRyan O'ReillyF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
99VGKStanislav DeminD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
100DALAdam MascherinF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
101NYRNico GrossD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
102SJSJasper WeatherbyF50110.20.4-0.11fairthru yr 9
103NYIJacob PivonkaF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
104CARLenni KillinenF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
105CGYMartin PospisilF173541.00.4+0.27great valuethru yr 9
106DALCurtis DouglasF4540.10.4-0.17fairthru yr 9
107STLJoel HoferG120—2.10.4+0.48great valuethru yr 9
108CGYDemetrios KoumontzisF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
109COLTyler WeissF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
110NJDXavier BernardD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
111NSHJachym KondelikF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
112PHIJack St. IvanyD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
113LAKAidan DudasF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
114ARIIvan ProsvetovG24—0.20.3-0.09fairthru yr 9
115VGKPaul CotterF306891.70.4+0.43great valuethru yr 9
116ANAJack PerbixF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
117BUFLinus Lindstrand CronholmD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
118TORMac HollowellD620.00.4-0.25poor valuethru yr 9
119BOSCurtis HallF000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
120CHIPhilipp KurashevF3601502.50.3+0.56STEALthru yr 9
121TBLAlexander GreenD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 9
122CGYMilos RomanF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
123MTLJack GorniakF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 9
124WSHMitchell GibsonG0—0.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
125BUFMiska KukkonenD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 9
126OTTAngus CrookshankF2950.10.3-0.17fairthru yr 9
127PHIWyatte WylieD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
128MTLCole FonstadF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
129PITJustin AlmeidaF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
130VANToni UtunenD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 9
131NSHSpencer StastneyD121190.70.4+0.16fairthru yr 9
132NYRLauri PajuniemiF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 9
133MTLSamuel HoudeF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
134NYIBlade JenkinsF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
135VGKBrandon KruseF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
136NJDAkira SchmidG86—1.30.2+0.42great valuethru yr 9
137DALRiley DamianiF720.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
138STLHugh McGingF920.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
139CHIMikael HakkarainenF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
140COLBrandon SaigeonF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
141NJDYegor SharangovichF4452293.70.3+0.68STEALthru yr 9
142ARIMichael CallahanD2210.10.3-0.18fairthru yr 9
143PHISamuel ErssonG146—1.60.2+0.49great valuethru yr 9
144LAKDavid HrenakG0—0.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
145ARIDennis BusbyD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
146COLDanila ZhuravlyovD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
147ANARoman DurnyG0—0.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
148MINSimon JohanssonD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 9
149TORFilip KralD200.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
150WPGDeclan ChisholmD133290.90.3+0.28great valuethru yr 9
151NSHVladislav YeryomenkoD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
152TBLMagnus ChronaG9—0.10.2-0.12fairthru yr 9
153WPGGiovanni VallatiD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
154VGKConnor CorcoranD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 9
155MINDamien GirouxF110.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
156TORPontus HolmbergF237761.30.3+0.40great valuethru yr 9
157OTTKevin MandoleseG3—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 9
158ARIDavid TendeckG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
159CBJTim BerniD5930.20.3-0.03fairthru yr 9
160DETVictor BrattstromG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
161WSHAlex Kannok-LeipertD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 9
162CHIAlexis GravelG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
163NYRSimon KjellbergD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
164EDMMichael KesselringD198571.60.3+0.46great valuethru yr 9
165LAKJohan SodergranF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
166CARJesper SellgrenD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
167CGYMathias Emilio PettersenF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 9
168DALDawson BarteauxD000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
169STLMathias LaferriereF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
170FLAJustin SchutzF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
171COLNikolai KovalenkoF57200.30.3+0.03fairthru yr 9
172NJDMitchell HoelscherF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 9
173CBJVeini VehvilainenG1—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
174PHIGavin HainF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
175LAKJacob InghamG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
176SJSZachary EmondG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
177PITLiam GormanF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 9
178ANAHunter DrewD200.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
179MINShawn BoudriasF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 9
180VGKPeter DiliberatoreD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 9
181BOSDustyn McFaulD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
182SJSJohn LeonardF81210.50.2+0.13fairthru yr 9
183TBLCole KoepkeF171380.70.2+0.26great valuethru yr 9
184WPGJared MoeG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
185VGKXavier BouchardD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
186VANArtyom ManukyanF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 9
187BUFWilliam Worge KreuD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
188OTTJakov NovakF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
189ARILiam KirkF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
190MTLBrett StapleyF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
191DETOtto KivenmakiF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
192VANMatthew ThiessenG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
193CHIJosiah SlavinF1710.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 9
194OTTLuke LoheitF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
195EDMPatrik SiikanenF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 9
196NYIChristian KrygierD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
197CARJacob KucharskiG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
198CGYDmitry ZavgorodniyF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
199DALJermaine LoewenF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
200STLTyler TuckerD159300.80.2+0.31great valuethru yr 9
201FLACole KrygierD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
202COLShamil ShmakovG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
203NJDEetu PakkilaF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
204CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyF2660.10.2-0.08fairthru yr 9
205PHIMarcus WestfaltF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
206TBLRadim SaldaD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
207FLASanttu KinnunenD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
208VGKJordan KooyG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
209TORZachary BouthillierG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
210MINSam HentgesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
211TORSemyon KizimovF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
212BOSPavel ShenF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 9
213NSHMilan KloucekG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
214TBLTy TaylorG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
215WPGAustin WongF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
216NYRRiley HughesF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9
217WSHEric FlorchukF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 9

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75