CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2019 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NJDJack HughesF4374375.97.1-0.09fairthru yr 8
2NYRKaapo KakkoF4532093.45.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
3CHIKirby DachF3141372.44.5-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
4COLBowen ByramD3341533.64.3-0.07fairthru yr 8
5LAKAlex TurcotteF165440.83.3-0.50poor valuethru yr 8
6DETMoritz SeiderD4182455.43.9+0.14fairthru yr 8
7BUFDylan CozensF4532744.13.2+0.10fairthru yr 8
8EDMPhilip BrobergD238802.13.4-0.20fairthru yr 8
9ANATrevor ZegrasF3592573.82.4+0.19fairthru yr 8
10VANVasily PodkolzinF3091071.92.4-0.09fairthru yr 8
11ARIVictor SoderstromD61120.41.8-0.46poor valuethru yr 8
12MINMatt BoldyF3693364.42.4+0.26great valuethru yr 8
13FLASpencer KnightG157—2.30.6+0.43great valuethru yr 8
14PHICam YorkD3141032.81.8+0.18fairthru yr 8
15MTLCole CaufieldF3763134.22.2+0.28great valuethru yr 8
16COLAlex NewhookF3461552.52.0+0.08fairthru yr 8
17VGKPeyton KrebsF3871372.31.9+0.07fairthru yr 8
18DALThomas HarleyD2751423.21.8+0.24fairthru yr 8
19OTTLassi ThomsonD2980.21.8-0.54BUSTthru yr 8
20WPGVille HeinolaD58120.31.7-0.45poor valuethru yr 8
21PITSam PoulinF000.01.8-0.64BUSTthru yr 8
22LAKTobias BjornfotD153190.81.4-0.20fairthru yr 8
23NYISimon HolmstromF2871242.01.8+0.05fairthru yr 8
24NSHPhilip TomasinoF218951.31.7-0.09fairthru yr 8
25WSHConnor McMichaelF3231602.51.6+0.16fairthru yr 8
26CGYJakob PelletierF91290.41.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
27TBLNolan FooteF42100.21.5-0.49poor valuethru yr 8
28CARRyan SuzukiF200.01.4-0.59BUSTthru yr 8
29ANABrayden TraceyF100.01.3-0.57BUSTthru yr 8
30BOSJohn BeecherF165280.61.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
31BUFRyan JohnsonD4770.21.2-0.40poor valuethru yr 8
32OTTShane PintoF2911592.61.1+0.32great valuethru yr 8
33LAKArthur KaliyevF204761.11.0+0.03fairthru yr 8
34PHIBobby BrinkF2221021.60.9+0.19fairthru yr 8
35DETAntti TuomistoD000.00.9-0.48poor valuethru yr 8
36CARPyotr KochetkovG130—2.20.6+0.42great valuethru yr 8
37OTTMads SogaardG31—0.30.6-0.18fairthru yr 8
38EDMRaphael LavoieF2320.10.8-0.35poor valuethru yr 8
39ANAJackson LaCombeD2371242.90.9+0.42great valuethru yr 8
40VANNils HoglanderF3391232.20.8+0.34great valuethru yr 8
41VGKKaedan KorczakD164411.20.9+0.11fairthru yr 8
42MINVladislav FirstovF000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 8
43CHIAlex VlasicD269722.30.9+0.34great valuethru yr 8
44CARJamieson ReesF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 8
45NSHEgor AfanasyevF1910.00.8-0.40poor valuethru yr 8
46MTLJayden StrubleD178351.10.9+0.08fairthru yr 8
47COLDrew HellesonD121290.80.9-0.02fairthru yr 8
48SJSArtemi KniazevD100.00.9-0.46poor valuethru yr 8
49NYRMatthew RobertsonD74180.50.9-0.17fairthru yr 8
50LAKSamuel FagemoF2140.10.8-0.38poor valuethru yr 8
51WPGSimon LundmarkD100.00.9-0.46poor valuethru yr 8
52FLAVladislav KolyachonokD87170.50.9-0.17fairthru yr 8
53TORNicholas RobertsonF243921.50.7+0.23fairthru yr 8
54DETRobert MastrosimoneF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 8
55SJSDillon HamaliukF000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 8
56WSHBrett LeasonF226541.00.7+0.09fairthru yr 8
57NYISamuel BolducD5280.20.8-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
58NYRKarl HenrikssonF000.00.7-0.41poor valuethru yr 8
59MINHunter JonesG0—0.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 8
60DETAlbert JohanssonD151200.90.8+0.05fairthru yr 8
61NJDNikita OkhotiukD67120.30.8-0.19fairthru yr 8
62STLNikita AlexandrovF5190.20.6-0.26poor valuethru yr 8
63COLMatt StienburgF800.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
64MTLMattias NorlinderD610.00.7-0.38poor valuethru yr 8
65NSHAlex CampbellF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
66DETAlbin GreweF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
67BUFErik PortilloG1—0.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
68NYRZac JonesD000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 8
69FLAJohn LudvigD4170.20.6-0.21fairthru yr 8
70NJDDaniil MisyulD100.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 8
71TBLHugo AlnefeltG1—0.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 8
72PHIRonnie AttardD2960.20.5-0.19fairthru yr 8
73CARPatrik PuistolaF000.00.4-0.31poor valuethru yr 8
74PITNathan LégaréF400.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
75MINAdam BeckmanF2330.10.4-0.24fairthru yr 8
76ARIJohn FarinacciF110.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
77MTLGianni FairbrotherD000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 8
78COLAlex BeaucageF000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 8
79VGKPavel DorofeyevF2411532.30.4+0.51STEALthru yr 8
80NJDGraeme ClarkeF300.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
81FLACole SchwindtF78150.30.4-0.07fairthru yr 8
82NJDMichael VukojevicD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
83CARAnttoni HonkaD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 8
84TORMikko KokkonenD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 8
85EDMIlya KonovalovG0—0.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 8
86VGKLayton AhacD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 8
87LAKLukas ParikG0—0.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 8
88CGYIlya NikolaevF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 8
89TBLMaxim CajkovicF000.00.3-0.25poor valuethru yr 8
90CARDomenick FensoreD300.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
91WSHAliaksei ProtasF3291732.60.3+0.58STEALthru yr 8
92BOSQuinn OlsonF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 8
93STLColten EllisG19—0.50.4+0.05fairthru yr 8
94OTTViktor LodinF100.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
95LAKJordan SpenceD262932.40.3+0.55STEALthru yr 8
96NJDTyce ThompsonF1110.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
97DETEthan PhillipsF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
98ARIMatias MaccelliF3031752.50.3+0.57STEALthru yr 8
99CARCade WebberD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 8
100EDMMatěj BlümelF1720.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
101ANAHenry ThrunD123250.80.3+0.21fairthru yr 8
102BUFAaron HuglenF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
103PHIMason MillmanD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 8
104CBJEric HjorthD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 8
105CHIMichal TeplyF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
106FLACarter BergerD000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 8
107ARIAlexandr DarinF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
108SJSYegor SpiridonovF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
109NSHMarc Del GaizoD55120.30.3+0.01fairthru yr 8
110VGKRyder DonovanF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
111DALSamuel SjolundD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
112NYRHunter SkinnerD100.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
113WPGHenri NikkanenF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
114CBJDmitri VoronkovF2161141.70.3+0.46great valuethru yr 8
115TORMikhail AbramovF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
116CGYLucas FeukF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
117NSHSemyon ChystyakovD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
118NJDCase McCarthyD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
119LAKKim NousiainenD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
120TBLMaxwell CrozierD000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 8
121CARTuukka TieksolaF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
122VANEthan KeppenF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
123CHIAntti SaarelaF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
124TORNick AbruzzeseF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
125OTTMark KastelicF296661.30.3+0.39great valuethru yr 8
126MTLJacob LeguerrierD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 8
127NJDCole BradyG0—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
128DETCooper MooreD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 8
129NJDArseni GritsyukF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
130NYRLeevi AaltonenF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
131MTLRhett PitlickF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
132ANATrevor JanickeF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
133VANCarson FochtF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
134WPGHarrison BlaisdellF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 8
135VGKIsaiah SavilleG0—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
136FLAHenrik RybinskiF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
137FLAOwen LindmarkF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
138MTLFrederik DichowG0—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
139VGKMarcus KallionkieliF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 8
140COLSasha MutalaF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
141VGKMason PrimeauF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
142DALNicholas PorcoF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
143BUFFilip CederqvistF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
144WPGLogan NeatonG0—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
145PITJudd CaulfieldF730.10.2-0.07fairthru yr 8
146TORMichael KosterD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 8
147NYIReece NewkirkF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
148NSHEthan HaiderG0—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
149MINMatvey GuskovF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
150CGYJoshua NodlerF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
151ARIAku RatyF110.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
152CARKirill SlepetsF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
153WSHMartin HasD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
154BOSRoman BychkovD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 8
155STLKeean WashkurakF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
156VANArturs SilovsG63—1.10.2+0.41great valuethru yr 8
157LAKBraden DoyleD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
158NJDPatrick MoynihanF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
159DETElmer SoderblomF110320.60.2+0.20fairthru yr 8
160BUFLukas RousekF1740.10.2-0.12fairthru yr 8
161NYRAdam EdstromF105200.50.2+0.16fairthru yr 8
162EDMTomas MazuraF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
163ANAWilliam FrancisD000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 8
164SJSTimur IbragimovF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
165PHIEgor SerdyukF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
166MINMarshall WarrenD830.10.2-0.12fairthru yr 8
167CHIDominic BasseG0—0.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
168FLAGreg MeirelesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
169PHIRoddy RossG0—0.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
170MTLArsen KhisamutdinovF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
171COLLuka BurzanF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 8
172MINNikita NesterenkoF68200.40.2+0.14fairthru yr 8
173DALBenjamin BrinkmanD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
174ARIDanil SavunovF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
175VANKarel PlasekF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
176ARIAnthony RomanoF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
177DETGustav BerglundD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
178NYIFelix BibeauF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
179NSHIsak WaltherF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
180VANJack MaloneF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
181CARKevin WallF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 8
182TBLQuinn SchmiemannD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
183CARBlake MurrayF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
184SJSSanteri HatakkaD2140.10.2-0.05fairthru yr 8
185BOSMatias MantykiviF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
186ANAMathew HillD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
187OTTMaxence GuenetteD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
188LAKAndre LeeF3050.20.2-0.02fairthru yr 8
189NJDNikola PasicF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
190DETKirill TyutyayevF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 8
191DETCarter GylanderG0—0.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
192BOSJake SchmaltzF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
193EDMMaxim DenezhkinF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
194CHICole MobergD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
195VANAidan McDonoughF610.00.2-0.12fairthru yr 8
196PHIBryce BrodzinskiF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
197MINFilip LindbergG0—0.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
198TBLMikhail ShalaginF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
199FLAMatthew WedmanF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
200ARIAxel BergkvistD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
201MTLRafael Harvey-PinardF85310.50.2+0.20fairthru yr 8
202COLTrent MinerG6—0.00.2-0.11fairthru yr 8
203PITValtteri PuustinenF66240.30.2+0.13fairthru yr 8
204TORKalle LoponenD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
205NYREric CiccoliniF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
206MTLKieran RuscheinskiD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
207ARIValentin NussbaumerF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
208STLVadim ZherenkoG0—0.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
209NYICole CoskeyF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
210NSHJuuso ParssinenF157560.80.2+0.34great valuethru yr 8
211PITSanteri AirolaD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 8
212CBJTyler AngleF410.00.2-0.12fairthru yr 8
213TBLMcKade WebsterF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 8
214CGYDustin WolfG133—1.90.2+0.57STEALthru yr 8
215VANArvid CostmarF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 8
216CARMassimo RizzoF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 8
217STLJeremy MichelF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 8

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75