CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2020 draft class217 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYRAlexis LafrenièreF4722614.16.0-0.18fairthru yr 7
2LAKQuinton ByfieldF3451932.94.5-0.18fairthru yr 7
3OTTTim StützleF4564215.74.0+0.17fairthru yr 7
4DETLucas RaymondF4083344.53.8+0.07fairthru yr 7
5OTTJake SandersonD3041813.83.4+0.05fairthru yr 7
6ANAJamie DrysdaleD3051022.93.4-0.06fairthru yr 7
7NJDAlexander HoltzF191550.92.8-0.40poor valuethru yr 7
8BUFJack QuinnF2691572.32.1+0.05fairthru yr 7
9MINMarco RossiF2441402.22.1+0.02fairthru yr 7
10WPGCole PerfettiF2981652.42.1+0.07fairthru yr 7
11NSHYaroslav AskarovG68—1.10.5+0.21fairthru yr 7
12FLAAnton LundellF3682043.12.0+0.18fairthru yr 7
13CARSeth JarvisF3752793.62.0+0.25fairthru yr 7
14EDMDylan HollowayF2331382.01.9+0.02fairthru yr 7
15TORRodion AmirovF000.01.8-0.64BUSTthru yr 7
16MTLKaiden GuhleD212701.91.4+0.10fairthru yr 7
17CHILukas ReichelF198621.01.6-0.16fairthru yr 7
18NJDDawson MercerF4182133.31.5+0.30great valuethru yr 7
19NYRBraden SchneiderD378882.61.4+0.24fairthru yr 7
20NJDShakir MukhamadullinD88230.71.4-0.24fairthru yr 7
21CBJEgor ChinakhovF2541151.81.5+0.07fairthru yr 7
22WSHHendrix LapierreF164500.81.5-0.20fairthru yr 7
23PHITyson FoersterF2051011.81.5+0.07fairthru yr 7
24CGYConnor ZaryF193871.31.4-0.01fairthru yr 7
25COLJustin BarronD213531.51.1+0.10fairthru yr 7
26STLJake NeighboursF2881362.11.3+0.20fairthru yr 7
27ANAJacob PerreaultF100.01.2-0.55BUSTthru yr 7
28OTTRidly GreigF2541061.81.2+0.17fairthru yr 7
29VGKBrendan BrissonF2790.11.1-0.43poor valuethru yr 7
30DALMavrik BourqueF160671.11.0+0.03fairthru yr 7
31SJSOzzy WiesblattF4560.10.9-0.39poor valuethru yr 7
32DETWilliam WallinderD420.10.9-0.40poor valuethru yr 7
33OTTRoby JarventieF1010.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 7
34BUFJJ PeterkaF3292032.90.8+0.46great valuethru yr 7
35LAKHelge GransD710.10.7-0.38poor valuethru yr 7
36ANASam ColangeloF48150.30.7-0.19fairthru yr 7
37MINMarat KhusnutdinovF177541.10.7+0.14fairthru yr 7
38SJSThomas BordeleauF44180.30.7-0.20fairthru yr 7
39MINRyan O'RourkeD000.00.7-0.42poor valuethru yr 7
40WPGDaniel TorgerssonF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 7
41CARNoel GunlerF000.00.7-0.40poor valuethru yr 7
42NSHLuke EvangelistaF2581452.10.7+0.38great valuethru yr 7
43FLAEmil HeinemanF156511.00.7+0.14fairthru yr 7
44OTTTyler KlevenD175331.20.7+0.17fairthru yr 7
45LAKBrock FaberD2421272.80.7+0.46great valuethru yr 7
46CHIDrew CommessoG5—0.00.5-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
47MTLLuke TuchF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 7
48MTLJan MysakF000.00.6-0.39poor valuethru yr 7
49ARIForfeitedF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 7
50CGYYan KuznetsovD64130.60.7-0.07fairthru yr 7
51DETTheodor NiederbachF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 7
52PITJoel BlomqvistG15—0.10.4-0.21fairthru yr 7
53CARVasily PonomarevF920.00.6-0.34poor valuethru yr 7
54PHIEmil AndraeD111210.70.7-0.01fairthru yr 7
55DETCross HanasF000.00.6-0.36poor valuethru yr 7
56SJSTristen RobinsF300.00.6-0.35poor valuethru yr 7
57TBLJack FinleyF4550.10.6-0.26poor valuethru yr 7
58BOSMason LohreiD200771.90.6+0.36great valuethru yr 7
59TORRoni HirvonenF000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 7
60NYRWill CuylleF2591101.80.5+0.40great valuethru yr 7
61OTTEgor SokolovF1320.00.5-0.30poor valuethru yr 7
62TBLGage GoncalvesF143531.00.5+0.20fairthru yr 7
63DETDonovan SebrangoD4480.20.5-0.17fairthru yr 7
64TORTopi NiemelaD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 7
65MINDaemon HuntD5370.40.5-0.08fairthru yr 7
66LAKKasper SimontaivalF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 7
67ANAIan MooreD70130.30.5-0.06fairthru yr 7
68VGKLukas CormierD210.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 7
69CARAlexander NikishinD81330.70.4+0.14fairthru yr 7
70DETEemil ViroD000.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
71OTTLeevi MeriläinenG40—0.90.4+0.24fairthru yr 7
72CGYJeremie PoirierD000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 7
73NSHLuke ProkopD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 7
74FLATy SmilanicF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 7
75COLJean-Luc FoudyF1310.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
76SJSDanil GushchinF1850.10.3-0.17fairthru yr 7
77PITCalle ClangG0—0.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 7
78CBJSamuel KnazkoD200.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 7
79CHILandon SlaggertF102170.40.3+0.03fairthru yr 7
80CGYJake BoltmannD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
81CHIWyatt KaiserD184381.40.3+0.40great valuethru yr 7
82VANJoni JurmoD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 7
83LAKAlex LaferriereF2461131.90.3+0.50great valuethru yr 7
84NJDNico DawsG58—0.80.3+0.21fairthru yr 7
85TBLMaxim GroshevF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 7
86STLDylan PetersonF300.00.3-0.18fairthru yr 7
87FLAJustin SourdifF89370.70.3+0.21fairthru yr 7
88STLLeo LoofD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
89BOSTrevor KuntarF100.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
90NYIAlexander LjungkrantzF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
91VGKJackson HallumF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
92NYROliver TarnstromF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
93TBLJack ThompsonD34100.20.3-0.00fairthru yr 7
94PHIZayde WisdomF000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 7
95FLAMike BenningD1860.10.3-0.08fairthru yr 7
96CGYDaniil ChechelevG0—0.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 7
97DETSam StangeF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
98SJSBrandon CoeF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
99NJDJaromir PytlikF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
100EDMCarter SavoieF000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
101NSHAdam WilsbyD89250.80.2+0.27great valuethru yr 7
102MTLJack SmithF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
103NYRDylan GarandG9—0.50.2+0.16fairthru yr 7
104ANAThimo NicklD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
105FLAZachary UensD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
106TORArtur AkhtyamovG3—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
107DETJan BednarG0—0.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
108PITLukas SvejkovskyF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
109MTLBlake BiondiF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
110CHIMichael KrutilD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
111ARIMitchell MillerD000.00.2-0.20fairthru yr 7
112LAKJuho MarkkanenG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
113VANJackson KunzF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
114CBJMikael PyyhtiaF71110.30.2+0.03fairthru yr 7
115CARZion NybeckF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 7
116TBLEamon PowellD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
117WSHBogdan TrineyevF200.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
118COLColby AmbrosioF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
119STLTanner DickinsonF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
120NJDEthan EdwardsD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 7
121NYIAlex JefferiesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
122TORWilliam VilleneuveD300.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
123DALAntonio StrangesF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
124MTLSean FarrellF610.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
125VGKJesper VikmanG0—0.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
126EDMTyler TullioF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
127NYREvan VierlingF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
128LAKMartin ChromiakF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
129ANAArtyom GalimovF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
130NJDArtem ShlaineF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
131BUFMatteo CostantiniF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
132DETAlex CottonD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
133WPGAnton JohannessonD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 7
134NYRBrett BerardF48100.20.2-0.01fairthru yr 7
135PHIElliot DesnoyersF400.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
136MTLJakub DobesG63—1.20.1+0.47great valuethru yr 7
137TORDmitry OvchinnikovF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
138EDMMaksim BerezkinF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
139COLRyder RolstonF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
140LAKBen MeehanD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
141CHIIsaak PhillipsD59120.30.2+0.09fairthru yr 7
142ARICarson BantleF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
143CGYRyan FrancisF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
144VANJacob TruscottD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
145CBJOle Julian Bjorgvik-HolmD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 7
146MINPavel NovakF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
147TBLJaydon DureauF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
148WSHBear HughesF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
149PITRaivis AnsonsF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
150STLMatthew KesselD102140.50.2+0.20fairthru yr 7
151BOSMason LangenbrunnerD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
152NYIWilliam DufourF100.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
153FLAKasper PuutioD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 7
154DALDaniel LjungmanF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
155OTTEric EngstrandF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
156DETKyle AucoinD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
157TBLNick CaponeF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
158OTTPhilippe DaoustF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
159CARLucas MercuriF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
160ANAAlbin SundsvikF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
161NJDBenjamin BaumgartnerF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
162DALYauheni AksiantsiukF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 7
163STLWill CranleyG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
164WPGTyrel BauerD400.10.2-0.09fairthru yr 7
165NYRMatt RempeF87110.20.2+0.07fairthru yr 7
166NSHLuke ReidD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 7
167COLNils AmanF132290.50.1+0.23fairthru yr 7
168TORVeeti MiettinenF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
169EDMFilip EngarasF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
170PITChase YoderF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
171MTLAlexander GordinF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
172CHIChad YetmanF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
173ARIFilip BarklundF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
174CGYRory KerinsF940.10.1-0.07fairthru yr 7
175VANDmitry ZlodeyevF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
176CBJSamuel JohannessonD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
177TORAxel RindellD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 7
178PHIConnor McClennonF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
179WSHGarin BjorklundG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
180TORJoe MillerF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
181OTTCole ReinhardtF77170.30.1+0.12fairthru yr 7
182BOSRiley DuranF200.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
183NYIMatias RajaniemiD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
184VGKNoah EllisD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
185DALRémi PoirierG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
186TBLAmir MiftakhovG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
187DETKienan DraperF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
188CHILouis CrevierD143331.10.1+0.42great valuethru yr 7
189TORJohn FuscoD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 7
190LAKAatu JamsenF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
191VANViktor PerssonD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
192ARIElliot EkefjardF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
193BUFAlbert LyckasenD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
194STLNoah BeckD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
195TORWyatt SchingoetheF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
196SJSAlex YoungF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
197NYRHugo OllasG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
198FLAElliot EkmarkF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
199CARAlexander PashinF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
200EDMJeremias LindewallF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
201SJSAdam RaskaF1300.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 7
202NSHGunnarwolfe FontaineF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
203DETChase BradleyF200.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
204ARIBen McCartneyF200.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
205CGYIlya SolovyovD45120.30.1+0.10fairthru yr 7
206SJSLinus ObergF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
207ANAEthan BowenF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
208CARRonan SeeleyD100.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
209NSHChase McLaneF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
210SJSTimofey SpitserovF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
211WSHOskar MagnussonF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
212FLADevon LeviG44—1.00.1+0.40great valuethru yr 7
213TORRyan TverbergF200.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
214NYIHenrik TikkanenG0—0.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 7
215VGKMaxim MarushevF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
216BUFJakub KonecnyF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7
217TBLDeclan McDonnellF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 7

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75