CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2021 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1BUFOwen PowerD3321483.64.5-0.09fairthru yr 6
2SEAMatty BeniersF3402003.13.7-0.08fairthru yr 6
3ANAMason McTavishF3121902.73.3-0.08fairthru yr 6
4NJDLuke HughesD2311322.92.8+0.02fairthru yr 6
5CBJKent JohnsonF2801432.12.1-0.00fairthru yr 6
6DETSimon EdvinssonD175601.52.8-0.24fairthru yr 6
7SJSWilliam EklundF2561652.42.1+0.05fairthru yr 6
8LAKBrandt ClarkeD191861.92.4-0.09fairthru yr 6
9ARIDylan GuentherF2361922.61.7+0.17fairthru yr 6
10OTTTyler BoucherF000.01.6-0.61BUSTthru yr 6
11ARIForfeitedF000.01.6-0.61BUSTthru yr 6
12CBJCole SillingerF3731452.41.6+0.17fairthru yr 6
13CGYMatt CoronatoF1991051.71.6+0.03fairthru yr 6
14BUFIsak RosenF60120.41.5-0.39poor valuethru yr 6
15DETSebastian CossaG4—0.20.3-0.07fairthru yr 6
16NYRBrennan OthmannF4550.11.3-0.47poor valuethru yr 6
17STLZachary BolducF183811.31.2+0.02fairthru yr 6
18WPGChaz LuciusF000.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 6
19NSHFedor SvechkovF130370.81.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
20MINJesper WallstedtG47—1.50.3+0.43great valuethru yr 6
21BOSFabian LysellF1230.11.1-0.49poor valuethru yr 6
22EDMXavier BourgaultF200.01.1-0.53BUSTthru yr 6
23DALWyatt JohnstonF3342673.61.1+0.43great valuethru yr 6
24FLAMackie SamoskevichF164671.21.1+0.03fairthru yr 6
25CBJCorson CeulemansD000.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 6
26MINCarson LambosD100.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 6
27NSHZachary L'HeureuxF90210.40.9-0.20fairthru yr 6
28COLOskar OlaussonF400.00.8-0.45poor valuethru yr 6
29NJDChase StillmanF000.00.8-0.44poor valuethru yr 6
30VGKZach DeanF1200.10.7-0.37poor valuethru yr 6
31MTLLogan MaillouxD75180.50.7-0.11fairthru yr 6
32CHINolan AllanD4790.30.7-0.16fairthru yr 6
33BUFProkhor PoltapovF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 6
34ANAOlen ZellwegerD172541.50.6+0.30great valuethru yr 6
35SEARyker EvansD185551.70.6+0.34great valuethru yr 6
36DETShai BuiumD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 6
37ARIJosh DoanF153821.30.5+0.29great valuethru yr 6
38VGKDaniil ChaykaD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 6
39OTTZack OstapchukF130110.50.5-0.03fairthru yr 6
40CARScott MorrowD45120.30.5-0.13fairthru yr 6
41VANDanila KlimovichF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 6
42LAKFrancesco PinelliF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 6
43ARIIlya FedotovF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 6
44CARAleksi HeimosalmiD000.00.5-0.35poor valuethru yr 6
45CGYWilliam StromgrenF300.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 6
46PHISamu TuomaalaF000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 6
47DALLogan StankovenF1921021.60.5+0.37great valuethru yr 6
48DALArtem GrushnikovD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 6
49OTTBen RogerD000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 6
50WPGNikita ChibrikovF1640.10.4-0.25poor valuethru yr 6
51CARVille KoivunenF54180.40.4-0.02fairthru yr 6
52NYIAatu RätyF118290.60.4+0.06fairthru yr 6
53BUFAleksandr KisakovF000.00.4-0.30poor valuethru yr 6
54MINJack PeartD000.00.5-0.33poor valuethru yr 6
55WSHVincent IorioD3640.20.5-0.20fairthru yr 6
56FLAEvan NauseD000.00.5-0.32poor valuethru yr 6
57TORMatthew KniesF2461642.30.4+0.52STEALthru yr 6
58PITTristan BrozF100.00.4-0.28poor valuethru yr 6
59LAKSamuel HeleniusF107160.40.4-0.01fairthru yr 6
60ARIJ.J. MoserD3461153.00.4+0.58STEALthru yr 6
61COLSean BehrensD000.00.4-0.29poor valuethru yr 6
62CHIColton DachF90200.50.3+0.07fairthru yr 6
63MTLRiley KidneyF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 6
64MTLOliver KapanenF101390.60.3+0.16fairthru yr 6
65NYRJayden GrubbeF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 6
66ANASasha PastujovF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 6
67SEARyan WintertonF98250.60.3+0.16fairthru yr 6
68NJDSamu SalminenF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
69CBJStanislav SvozilD210.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 6
70DETCarter MazurF1210.10.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
71STLSimon RobertssonF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 6
72NSHAnton OlssonD000.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 6
73DALAyrton MartinoF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
74OTTOliver JohanssonF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
75NYRRyder KorczakF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
76ANATyson HindsD1300.20.2-0.04fairthru yr 6
77CGYCole HuckinsF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
78PHIAleksei KolosovG21—0.10.2-0.07fairthru yr 6
79DALJustin ErtelF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
80WSHBrent JohnsonD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
81SJSBenjamin GaudreauG0—0.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 6
82WPGDmitry KuzminD000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
83CARPatrik HamrlaG0—0.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 6
84LAKKirill KirsanovD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
85BOSBrett HarrisonF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
86MINCaedan BankierF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
87MTLDmitri KostenkoD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
88BUFStiven SardarianF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
89CGYCameron WhynotD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
90EDMLuca MunzenbergerD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
91CHITaige HardingD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
92COLAndrei BuyalskyF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 6
93NYITristan LennoxG1—0.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
94CARAidan HreschukD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
95BUFJosh BloomF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
96TBLRoman SchmidtD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
97BUFOlivier NadeauF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
98ANAJosh LopinaF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 6
99SEAVille OttavainenD720.10.2-0.02fairthru yr 6
100NJDJakub MalekG0—0.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
101CBJGuillaume RichardD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
102VGKJakub BrabenecF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
103SJSGannon LaroqueD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
104NYRBrody LambF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
105CHIEthan Del MastroD4870.30.2+0.10fairthru yr 6
106NYRKalle VaisanenF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
107ARIEmil LillebergD166361.00.2+0.40great valuethru yr 6
108CHIVictor StjernborgF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
109CARJackson BlakeF171951.50.2+0.51STEALthru yr 6
110PHIBrian ZanettiD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 6
111DALConner RouletteF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
112NYRTalyn BoykoG0—0.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
113MTLWilliam TrudeauD300.00.2-0.10fairthru yr 6
114DETRedmond SavageF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
115NSHRyan UfkoD20110.20.2+0.04fairthru yr 6
116EDMJake ChiassonF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
117BOSPhilip SvedebackG0—0.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
118MINKyle MastersD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
119WSHJoaquim LemayD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
120FLAVladislav LukashevichD000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 6
121SJSEthan CardwellF1320.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
122ARIRasmus KorhonenG0—0.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
123OTTCarson LatimerF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
124NSHJack MatierD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 6
125NYICameron BergF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
126TBLDylan DukeF310.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
127MINJosh PillarF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
128VGKJakub DemekF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
129NJDTopias VilenD200.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
130ANASean TschigerlF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
131SEAJacob MelansonF3850.10.1-0.01fairthru yr 6
132CBJNikolai MakarovD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
133CBJJames MalatestaF1340.10.1-0.06fairthru yr 6
134DETLiam Dower NilssonF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 6
135SJSArtem GuryevD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
136CARRobert OrrF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
137VANAku KoskenvuoG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
138DALJack BarD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
139ARIManix LandryF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
140VANJonathan MyrenbergD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
141CGYCole JordanD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
142MTLDaniil SobolevD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
143DALJacob HolmesD000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
144NYRJaroslav ChmelarF3560.20.1+0.05fairthru yr 6
145STLTyson GallowayD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
146WPGDmitri RashevskyF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
147CARJustin RobidasF430.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
148ANAGage AlexanderG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
149BOSOskar JellvikF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 6
150MTLJoshua RoyF38110.20.1+0.05fairthru yr 6
151WSHHaakon HaneltF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
152FLAKirill GerasimyukG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
153TORTy VoitF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
154PITIsaac BelliveauD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
155DETOscar PlandowskiD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
156SJSMax McCueF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
157NYIEetu LiukasF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
158PHITy MurchisonD300.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
159BUFViljami MarjalaF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
160TBLCameron MacdonaldF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
161BUFWilliam Von Barnekow LofbergF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 6
162ANAKyle KukkonenF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
163SEASemyon VyazovoiG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
164NJDViktor HurtigD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
165CBJBen BoydF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
166DETPasquale ZitoF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
167SJSLiam GilmartinF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
168CGYJack BeckF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
169VANHugo GabrielsonD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
170CARBryce MontgomeryD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
171ARICal ThomasD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
172CHIIlya SafonovF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
173CGYLucas CionaF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
174PHIEthan SamsonD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
175DALFrancesco ArcuriF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
176WSHDru KrebsD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
177SJSTheo JacobssonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
178VANConnor LockhartF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
179NSHSimon KnakF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
180EDMMatvey PetrovF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
181BOSRyan MastD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
182MINNate BenoitD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
183WSHChase ClarkG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
184FLAJakub KosF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
185TORVyacheslav PeksaG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
186EDMShane LachanceF100.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
187CARNikita QuappG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
188BUFNikita NovikovD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 6
189NYIAleksi MalinenD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
190VGKArtur CholachD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
191MTLXavier SimoneauF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
192TBLAlex GagneD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
193BUFTyson KozakF69110.30.1+0.14fairthru yr 6
194PITRyan McClearyD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
195SEAJustin JanickeF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
196TBLDaniil PylenkovD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
197CBJMartin RysavyF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
198STLIvan VorobyovF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
199SJSEvgenii KashnikovD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
200CARYegor NaumovG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
201VANLucas ForsellF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
202OTTChandler RomeoD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
203NJDZakhar BardakovF60100.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 6
204CHIConnor KelleyD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
205CGYArsenii SergeevG1—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 6
206PHIOwen McLaughlinF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
207DALAlbert SjobergF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
208NYRHank KempfD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
209CARNikita GuslistovF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
210FLABraden HacheD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
211TBLCooper FlintonF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
212EDMMaximus WannerD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
213BOSAndre GasseauF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
214MTLJoe VrbeticG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
215PITDaniel LaatschD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
216CHIJalen LuypenF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
217BOSTy GallagherD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
218PITKirill TankovF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
219CARJoel NystromD38100.20.1+0.11fairthru yr 6
220COLTaylor MakarF1200.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 6
221NYITomas MachuD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 6
222VGKCarl LindbomG8—0.10.1-0.01fairthru yr 6
223ARISam LipkinF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6
224TBLNiko HuuhtanenF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 6

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75