CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2022 draft class225 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1MTLJuraj SlafkovskýF2901892.84.1-0.17fairthru yr 5
2NJDSimon NemecD162521.42.9-0.28poor valuethru yr 5
3ARILogan CooleyF2201602.32.6-0.05fairthru yr 5
4SEAShane WrightF178821.32.4-0.23fairthru yr 5
5PHICutter GauthierF1651191.61.5+0.02fairthru yr 5
6CBJDavid JiricekD93140.62.1-0.41poor valuethru yr 5
7CHIKevin KorchinskiD106190.61.7-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
8DETMarco KasperF160560.91.2-0.09fairthru yr 5
9BUFMatt SavoieF87380.61.2-0.23fairthru yr 5
10ANAPavel MintyukovD211701.80.9+0.27great valuethru yr 5
11ARIConor GeekieF74180.41.1-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
12CBJDenton MateychukD126461.20.9+0.13fairthru yr 5
13CHIFrank NazarF129721.21.1+0.03fairthru yr 5
14WPGRutger McGroartyF3290.21.0-0.40poor valuethru yr 5
15VANJonathan LekkerimäkiF47150.41.0-0.23fairthru yr 5
16BUFNoah OstlundF77330.70.9-0.07fairthru yr 5
17NSHJoakim KemellF1830.10.8-0.41poor valuethru yr 5
18DALLian BichselD96170.70.9-0.07fairthru yr 5
19MINLiam OhgrenF107300.70.8-0.03fairthru yr 5
20WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoF54140.30.8-0.26poor valuethru yr 5
21PITOwen PickeringD2930.10.7-0.31poor valuethru yr 5
22ANANathan GaucherF300.00.8-0.43poor valuethru yr 5
23STLJimmy SnuggerudF85601.00.8+0.07fairthru yr 5
24MINDanila YurovF81310.60.7-0.05fairthru yr 5
25CHISam RinzelD71210.70.5+0.07fairthru yr 5
26MTLFilip MesarF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 5
27SJSFilip BystedtF000.00.6-0.37poor valuethru yr 5
28BUFJiri KulichF82320.60.5+0.04fairthru yr 5
29ARIMaveric LamoureuxD2040.10.5-0.24fairthru yr 5
30WPGBrad LambertF3890.20.5-0.14fairthru yr 5
31TBLIsaac HowardF3770.20.4-0.13fairthru yr 5
32EDMReid SchaeferF5280.20.4-0.11fairthru yr 5
33MTLOwen BeckF3020.10.4-0.21fairthru yr 5
34SJSCameron LundF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 5
35SEAJagger FirkusF000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 5
36ARIArtem DudaD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 5
37WSHRyan ChesleyD000.00.4-0.26poor valuethru yr 5
38TORFraser MintenF116480.90.3+0.26great valuethru yr 5
39CHIPaul LudwinskiF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 5
40DETDylan JamesF000.00.3-0.25fairthru yr 5
41BUFTopias LeinonenG0—0.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
42ANANoah WarrenD730.20.3-0.08fairthru yr 5
43ARIJulian LutzF000.00.3-0.24fairthru yr 5
44CBJLuca Del Bel BelluzF31100.20.3-0.10fairthru yr 5
45SJSMattias HavelidD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 5
46NJDSeamus CaseyD1680.20.3-0.10fairthru yr 5
47MINHunter HaightF920.00.3-0.20fairthru yr 5
48VGKMatyas SapovalivF000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 5
49SEAJani NymanF40130.20.3-0.06fairthru yr 5
50DALChristian KyrouD000.00.3-0.23fairthru yr 5
51LAKJack HughesF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 5
52DETDmitri BuchelnikovF000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 5
53ANATristan LuneauD2160.30.3+0.02fairthru yr 5
54BOSMatthew PoitrasF75320.50.3+0.15fairthru yr 5
55WPGElias SalomonssonD3250.20.3-0.09fairthru yr 5
56MINRieger LorenzF410.10.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
57CHIRyan GreeneF92310.70.2+0.25fairthru yr 5
58SEANiklas KokkoG0—0.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
59CGYTopi RonniF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 5
60CARGleb TrikozovF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 5
61SEADavid GoyetteF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 5
62MTLLane HutsonD1741543.10.3+0.65STEALthru yr 5
63NYRAdam SykoraF1140.10.2-0.11fairthru yr 5
64OTTFilip NordbergD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 5
65NYICalle OdeliusD000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 5
66CHIGavin HayesF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 5
67ARIMiko MatikkaF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 5
68SEATy NelsonD000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 5
69PHIDevin KaplanF100.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 5
70WSHAlexander SuzdalevF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
71CARAlexander PerevalovF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
72OTTOskar PetterssonF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
73STLAleksanteri KaskimakiF500.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
74BUFViktor NeuchevF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
75MTLVinzenz RohrerF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
76SJSMichael FisherD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 5
77WPGDanil ZhilkinF610.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
78NYIQuinn FinleyF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
79VGKJordan GustafsonF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 5
80VANElias PetterssonD108160.70.1+0.33great valuethru yr 5
81CHISamuel SavoieF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
82NSHAdam IngramF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
83DALGeorge FegarasD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
84NSHKasper KulonummiD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
85WSHLudwig PerssonF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
86TBLLucas EdmondsF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
87OTTTomas HamaraD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
88STLMichael BuchingerD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
89MINMichael MilneF100.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
90CHIAidan ThompsonF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
91SEABen MacDonaldF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
92MTLAdam EngstromD1910.10.1+0.02fairthru yr 5
93FLAMarek AlscherD430.10.1-0.04fairthru yr 5
94ARIJeremy LangloisD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
95TORNicholas MoldenhauerF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
96CBJJordan DumaisF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
97NYRBryce McConnell-BarkerF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 5
98NYIIsaiah GeorgeD3760.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 5
99WPGGarrett BrownD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
100SEATyson JugnauthD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
101CARSimon ForsmarkD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
102NJDTyler BrennanG0—0.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
103LAKKenny ConnorsF200.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
104OTTStephen HallidayF39140.30.1+0.15fairthru yr 5
105DETAnton JohanssonD820.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 5
106BUFMats LindgrenD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
107ANABen KingF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
108SJSMason BeaupitG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
109CBJKirill DolzhenkovF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
110NJDDaniil OrlovD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
111NYRNoah LabaF84260.60.1+0.31great valuethru yr 5
112VANDaimon GardnerF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 5
113DETAmadeus LombardiF830.10.1+0.04fairthru yr 5
114NSHCole O'HaraF110.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
115DALGavin WhiteD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
116LAKAngus BoothD110.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
117BOSCole SpicerF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
118PITSergei MurashovG9—0.30.1+0.16fairthru yr 5
119BOSDans LocmelisF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
120STLArseni KoromyslovD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
121MINRyan HealeyD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
122TORDennis HildebyG28—0.70.0+0.38great valuethru yr 5
123SEATucker RobertsonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
124CARCruz LuciusF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
125FLALudvig JanssonD410.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
126NJDCharlie LeddyD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
127MTLCedrick GuindonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
128VGKCameron WhiteheadG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
129DETMaximilian KilpinenF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 5
130MTLJared DavidsonF1010.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
131ARIMatthew MordenD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
132BOSFrederic BrunetD720.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 5
133PHIAlex BumpF2090.20.1+0.08fairthru yr 5
134BUFVsevolod KomarovD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
135TORNikita GrebenkinF62140.30.1+0.13fairthru yr 5
136OTTJorian DonovanD300.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
137DETTnias MathurinD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
138CBJSergei IvanovG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
139ANAConnor HvidstonF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
140SJSJake FurlongD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
141NJDPetr HauserF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
142NYIMatthew MaggioF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
143OTTCameron O'NeillF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
144VANTy YoungG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
145VGKPatrick GuayF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
146NSHGraham SwardD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
147DALMaxim MayorovG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
148LAKOtto SalinD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
149WSHJake KarabelaF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
150PITZam PlanteF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 5
151OTTKevin ReidlerG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
152STLMarc-Andre GaudetD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
153MINDavid SpacekD600.10.1+0.03fairthru yr 5
154ANAMichael CallowF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
155CGYParker BellF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
156CARVladimir GrudininD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
157FLASandis VilmanisF2860.30.1+0.15fairthru yr 5
158EDMSamuel JonssonG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
159NYRVictor ManciniD58110.40.1+0.22fairthru yr 5
160TBLNick MalikG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
161NYRMaxim BarbashevF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
162MTLEmmett CroteauG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
163ARIMaksymilian SzuberD100.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
164SEABarrett HallF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
165PHIHunter McDonaldD110.00.1-0.04fairthru yr 5
166NJDJosh FilmonF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 5
167PITNolan CollinsD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
168OTTTheo WallbergD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
169LAKJared WrightF2440.10.1+0.04fairthru yr 5
170BUFJake RichardF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
171CARJakub VondrasG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
172SJSJoey MuldowneyF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
173CHIDominic JamesF45160.30.1+0.17fairthru yr 5
174NYIDaylan KueflerF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
175WPGFabian WagnerF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
176VANJackson DorringtonD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
177VGKBen HemmerlingF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
178ANAVyacheslav ButeyetsG1—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
179DALMatthew SeminoffF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 5
180LAKJack SparkesD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
181WSHRyan HoferF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 5
182PITLuke DevlinF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 5
183BOSReid DyckG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
184STLLandon SimF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
185MINServac PetrovskyF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
186FLAJosh DaviesF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
187BUFGustav KarlssonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
188CHINils JuntorpF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
189FLATyler MuszelikG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
190EDMNikita YevseyevD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
191NYRZakary KarpaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
192TBLConnor KurthF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
193COLChris RomaineD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
194MTLPetteri NurmiD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
195SJSEli BarnettD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
196SEAKyle JacksonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
197PHISanteri SulkuF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
198NJDArtem BaraboshaD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
199CHIRiku TohilaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
200BOSJackson EdwardD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
201DETOwen MehlenbacherF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
202BUFJoel Ratkovic BerndtssonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
203CBJJames FisherF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
204ARIAdam ZlnkaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
205CARAlexander PelevinD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
206OTTTyson DyckF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
207WPGDomenic DiVincentiisG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
208VANKirill KudryavtsevD520.00.1-0.01fairthru yr 5
209VGKAbram WiebeD400.00.1-0.04fairthru yr 5
210NSHBen StrindenF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
211BUFLinus SjodinF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
212DETBrennan AliF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
213WSHDavid GucciardiD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
214FLALiam ArnsbyF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
215LAKKaleb LawrenceF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
216MTLMiguël TourignyD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
217SJSReese LaubachF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
218TORBrandon LisowskyF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
219CGYCade LittlerF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
220PHIAlexis GendronF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
221FLAJack DevineF600.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 5
222EDMJoel MaattaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
223TBLDyllan GillD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 5
224TBLKlavs VeinbergsF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5
225COLIvan ZhigalovG0—0.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 5

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75