CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2023 draft class223 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1CHIConnor BedardF2222062.73.2-0.07fairthru yr 4
2ANALeo CarlssonF2081502.22.2-0.01fairthru yr 4
3CBJAdam FantilliF2191422.12.0+0.02fairthru yr 4
4SJSWill SmithF1511101.61.7-0.02fairthru yr 4
5MTLDavid ReinbacherD310.01.3-0.54BUSTthru yr 4
6ARIDmitriy SimashevD000.01.3-0.56BUSTthru yr 4
7PHIMatvei MichkovF1711191.71.1+0.17fairthru yr 4
8WSHRyan LeonardF92530.81.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
9DETNate DanielsonF3590.21.0-0.33poor valuethru yr 4
10STLDalibor DvorskyF81240.60.8-0.10fairthru yr 4
11VANTom WillanderD80240.80.6+0.09fairthru yr 4
12ARIDaniil ButF38100.30.7-0.21fairthru yr 4
13BUFZach BensonF2201071.80.7+0.31great valuethru yr 4
14PITBrayden YagerF300.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 4
15NSHMatthew WoodF85330.70.6+0.03fairthru yr 4
16CGYSamuel HonzekF2740.20.5-0.20fairthru yr 4
17DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaD74220.60.6+0.01fairthru yr 4
18WPGColby BarlowF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 4
19CHIOliver MooreF69260.50.5+0.04fairthru yr 4
20SEAEduard SaleF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 4
21MINCharlie StramelF000.00.5-0.31poor valuethru yr 4
22PHIOliver BonkD530.20.4-0.15fairthru yr 4
23NYRGabe PerreaultF64330.70.5+0.11fairthru yr 4
24NSHTanner MolendykD000.00.3-0.26poor valuethru yr 4
25STLOtto StenbergF32100.20.4-0.15fairthru yr 4
26SJSQuentin MustyF000.00.4-0.27poor valuethru yr 4
27COLCalum RitchieF80330.60.4+0.14fairthru yr 4
28TOREaston CowanF75360.70.3+0.18fairthru yr 4
29STLTheo LindsteinD2150.20.3-0.06fairthru yr 4
30CARBradly NadeauF1650.10.3-0.13fairthru yr 4
31COLMikhail GulyayevD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 4
32VGKDavid EdstromF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 4
33ANANico MyatovicF000.00.2-0.18fairthru yr 4
34CBJGavin BrindleyF59130.20.2+0.03fairthru yr 4
35CHIAdam GajanG0—0.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
36SJSKasper HalttunenF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
37TBLEthan GauthierF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
38ARIMichael HrabalG0—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
39BUFAnton WahlbergF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
40WSHAndrew CristallF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
41DETTrey AugustineG0—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
42DETAndrew GibsonD000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 4
43NSHFelix NilssonF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
44CHIRoman KantserovF930.30.2+0.06fairthru yr 4
45BUFMaxim StrbakD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
46NSHKalan LindF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 4
47DETBrady ClevelandD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
48CGYEtienne MorinD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
49NYIDanny NelsonF000.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 4
50SEACarson RehkopfF000.00.2-0.13fairthru yr 4
51PHICarson BjarnasonG0—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
52SEAOscar Fisker MolgaardF1320.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
53MINRasmus KumpulainenF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 4
54LAKJakub DvorakD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
55CHIMartin MisiakF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 4
56EDMBeau AkeyD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
57SEALukas DragicevicD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
58NJDLenni HameenahoF3380.10.1+0.03fairthru yr 4
59ANACarey TerranceF000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 4
60ANADamian ClaraG0—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
61DALTristan BertucciD000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 4
62CARFelix Unger SorumF210.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
63FLAGracyn SawchynF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
64MINRiley HeidtF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
65ANACoulson PitreF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 4
66CBJWilliam WhitelawF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
67CHINick LardisF47170.30.1+0.19fairthru yr 4
68NSHJesse KiiskinenF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 4
69MTLJacob FowlerG21—0.80.1+0.40great valuethru yr 4
70ARIJonathan CastagnaF410.10.1+0.00fairthru yr 4
71SJSBrandon SvobodaF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
72ARINoel NordhF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
73DETNoah Dower NilssonF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
74STLQuinton BurnsD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
75VANHunter BrzustewiczD3570.20.1+0.10fairthru yr 4
76STLJuraj PekarcikF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
77VGKMathieu CatafordF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
78LAKKoehn ZiemmerF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
79DALBrad GardinerF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
80CGYAydar SunievF1140.10.1+0.06fairthru yr 4
81ARITanner LudtkeF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
82WPGZach NehringF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
83NSHDylan MacKinnonD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
84SEACaden PriceD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
85ANAYegor SidorovF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
86BUFGavin McCarthyD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
87PHIEgor ZavraginG0—0.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 4
88ARIVadim MorozF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
89VANSawyer MynioD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
90NYRDrew FortescueD920.10.1-0.00fairthru yr 4
91PITEmil PieniniemiD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
92BOSChristopher PelosiF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
93CHIJiri FelcmanF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
94CARJayden PerronF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
95PHIDenver BarkeyF50190.40.1+0.25great valuethru yr 4
96VGKArttu KarkiD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
97ANAKonnor SmithD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
98CBJAndrew StrathmannD000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
99CHIAlex PharandF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
100CARAlexander RykovF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
101MTLFlorian XhekajF710.00.1-0.01fairthru yr 4
102ARITerrell GoldsmithD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
103PHICole KnubleF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
104WSHPatrick ThomasF000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 4
105VANTy MuellerF810.00.1-0.02fairthru yr 4
106STLJakub StanclF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
107VANVilmer AlrikssonF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
108OTTHoyt StanleyD400.10.0+0.02fairthru yr 4
109BUFEthan MiedemaF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
110MTLBogdan KonyushkovD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
111NSHJoey WillisF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
112CGYJaden LipinskiF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
113NYIJesse NurmiF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
114CBJLuca PinelliF300.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
115TBLJayson ShaugabayF000.00.0-0.05fairthru yr 4
116SEAAndrei LoshkoF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
117DETLarry KeenanD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
118LAKHampton SlukynskyG0—0.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
119VANMatthew PerkinsF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
120PHIAlex CiernikF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
121NSHJuha JatkolaG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
122NJDCam SquiresF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
123SJSLuca CagnoniD1640.30.0+0.18fairthru yr 4
124BOSBeckett HendricksonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
125DALAram MinnetianD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
126CARStanislav YarovoiF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
127FLAAlbert WikmanD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
128MTLQuentin MillerG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
129ANARodwin DionicioD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
130SJSAxel LandenD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
131CHIMarcel MarcelF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
132SJSEric PohlkampD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
133MTLSam HarrisF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
134ARIMelker ThelinG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
135PHICarter SotheranD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
136WSHCam AllenD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
137DETJack PhelanD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
138STLPaul FischerD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
139CARCharles-Alexis LegaultD1420.10.0+0.06fairthru yr 4
140OTTMatthew AndonovskiD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
141BUFScott RatzlaffG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
142PITMikhail IlyinF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
143NSHSutter MuzzattiF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
144MTLYevgeni VolokhinG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
145NYIJustin GillF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
146WPGJacob JulienF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
147DETKevin BickerF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 4
148SEAKaden HammellD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
149MINAaron PionkD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
150LAKMatthew ManiaD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
151WPGThomas MilicG3—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 4
152NYRRasmus LarssonD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
153TORHudson MalinoskiF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
154NJDChase CheslockD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
155COLNikita IshimnikovD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
156CBJMelvin StrahlG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
157DALArno TiefenseeG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
158CARRuslan KhazheyevG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
159FLAOlof GliffordG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
161ANAVojtech PortD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
162ARISamu BauF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
163CARTimur MukhanovF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
164NJDCole BrownF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
165MTLFilip ErikssonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
166ARICarsen MusserG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
167CHIMilton OscarsonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
168SEAVisa VedenpaaG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
169DETRudy GuimondG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
170STLMatthew MayichD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
171VANAiden CelebriniD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
172PHIRyan MacPhersonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
173BUFSean KeohaneD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
174PITCooper FosterF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
175NSHAustin RoestF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
176CGYYegor YegorovG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
177NYIZachary SchulzD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
178NYRDylan RoobroeckF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
179TBLWarren ClarkD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
180SEAZeb ForsfjallF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
181MINKalem ParkerD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
182LAKRyan ConmyF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
183NYRTy HenricksF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
184EDMNathaniel DayG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
185TORNoah ChadwickD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
186NJDDaniil KarpovichD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
187COLJeremy HanzelD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
188BOSRyan WalshF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
189DALAngus MacDonellF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
190CARMichael EmersonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
191FLALuke CoughlinD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
192VGKTuomas UronenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
193TBLJack HarveyF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
194CBJOiva KeskinenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
195CHIJanne PeltonenD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
196SJSDavid KleeF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
197MTLLuke MittelstadtD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
198FLAStepan ZvyaginF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
199PHIMatteo MannD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
200WSHBrett HylandF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
201DETEmmitt FinnieF90350.70.0+0.41great valuethru yr 4
202STLNikita SusuyevF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
203SJSYegor RimashevskiyF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
204OTTOwen BecknerF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
205BUFNorwin PanochaD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
206WSHAntoine KellerG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
207OTTVladimir NikitinG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
208CGYAxel HurtigD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
209NYIDennis Good BoggD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
210WPGConnor LevisF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
211TBLEthan HayF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
212SEAZaccharya WisdomF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
213MINJames ClarkF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
214BOSCasper NassenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
215OTTNicholas VantassellF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
216EDMMatt CopponiF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
217PITEmil JarventieF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
218NSHAiden FinkF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
219COLMaros JedlickaF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
220BOSKristian KostadinskiD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
221DALSebastian BradshawF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
222CAREgor VelmakinG0—0.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4
223PITKalle KangasD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 4
224CBJTyler PeddleF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 4

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75