CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2024 draft class225 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1SJSMacklin CelebriniF1581892.42.4+0.01fairthru yr 3
2CHIArtyom LevshunovD95331.01.4-0.12fairthru yr 3
3ANABeckett SenneckeF89681.11.3-0.08fairthru yr 3
4CBJCayden LindstromF000.01.1-0.52BUSTthru yr 3
5MTLIvan DemidovF86660.90.6+0.10fairthru yr 3
6UTATij IginlaF000.00.6-0.38poor valuethru yr 3
7OTTCarter YakemchukD1340.30.6-0.17fairthru yr 3
8SEABerkly CattonF75230.50.6-0.03fairthru yr 3
9CGYZayne ParekhD45110.50.6-0.09fairthru yr 3
10NJDAnton SilayevD000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 3
11SJSSam DickinsonD78150.60.3+0.16fairthru yr 3
12MINZeev BuiumD86271.00.3+0.30great valuethru yr 3
13PHIJett LuchankoF800.00.4-0.25poor valuethru yr 3
14BUFKonsta HeleniusF1760.20.3-0.06fairthru yr 3
15DETMichael Brandsegg-NygårdF2270.30.3-0.02fairthru yr 3
16STLAdam JiricekD810.20.3-0.06fairthru yr 3
17WSHTerik ParascakF000.00.2-0.19fairthru yr 3
18CHISacha BoisvertF720.00.2-0.14fairthru yr 3
19VGKTrevor ConnellyF1070.20.2+0.03fairthru yr 3
20NYICole EisermanF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 3
21MTLMichael HageF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 3
22NSHEgor SurinF000.00.2-0.17fairthru yr 3
23ANAStian SolbergD000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 3
24UTACole BeaudoinF400.10.2-0.12fairthru yr 3
25BOSDean LetourneauF000.00.2-0.16fairthru yr 3
26LAKLiam GreentreeF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 3
27CHIMarek VanackerF000.00.2-0.15fairthru yr 3
28CGYMatvei GridinF44220.40.2+0.18fairthru yr 3
29DALEmil HemmingF000.00.1-0.13fairthru yr 3
30NYREJ EmeryD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
31TORBen DanfordD000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
32EDMSam O'ReillyF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 3
33SJSIgor ChernyshovF36230.40.1+0.21fairthru yr 3
34CARDominik BadinkaD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 3
35ANALucas PetterssonF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 3
36CBJCharlie ElickD000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 3
37WPGAlfons FreijD000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 3
38COLIlya NabokovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
39OTTGabriel EliassonD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 3
40SEAJulius MiettinenF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 3
41CGYAndrew BashaF000.00.1-0.08fairthru yr 3
42BUFAdam KleberD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 3
43WSHCole HutsonD22140.40.0+0.25great valuethru yr 3
44PITHarrison BrunickeD910.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
45MINRyder RitchieF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 3
46PITTanner HoweF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 3
47DETMax PlanteF000.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 3
48STLColin RalphD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
49NJDMikhail YegorovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
50CARNikita ArtamonovF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 3
51PHIJack BerglundF000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 3
52WSHLeon MuggliD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
53SJSLeo Sahlin WalleniusD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
54NYIJesse PulkkinenD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
55NSHTeddy StigaF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
56STLLukas FischerD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
57LAKCarter GeorgeG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
58FLALinus ErikssonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
59PHISpencer GillD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
60CBJEvan GardnerG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
61NYIKamil BednarikF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
62CGYJacob BattagliaF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
63SEANathan VilleneuveF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
64EDMEemil VinniG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
65UTAWill SkahanD000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 3
66ANAMaxim MasséF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
67CHIJohn MustardF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
68ANAEthan ProcyszynF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
69CARNoel FransénD000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 3
70MTLAatos KoivuF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
71BUFBrodie ZiemerF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
72CHIAnthony (AJ) SpellacyF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
73SEAAlexis BernierD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
74CGYHenry MewsD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
75WSHIlya ProtasF1290.20.0+0.16fairthru yr 3
76COLWilliam ZellersF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
77NSHViggo GustafssonD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
78MTLLogan SawyerF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
79ANATarin SmithD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
80DETOndrej BecherF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
81STLOndrej KosF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
82SJSCarson WetschF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
83VGKPavel MoysevichG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
84CGYKirill ZarubinG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
85NJDKasper PikkarainenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
86CBJLuca MarrelliD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
87NSHMiguel MarquesF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
88SEAKim SaarinenG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
89UTATomas LavoieD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
90WSHEriks MateikoF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
91NJDHerman TräffF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
92CHIJack PridhamF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
93VANMelvin FernströmF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
94NSHHiroki GojsicF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
95STLAdam JechoF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
96UTAVeeti VäisänenD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
97FLAMatvei ShuravinD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
98UTAGregor BiberD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
99NSHJakub MilotaG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
100ANAAlexandre BlaisF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
101CBJTanner HenricksD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
102MTLOwen ProtzD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
103UTAGabe SmithF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
104OTTLucas EllinasF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
105SEAOllie JosephsonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
106CGYTrevor HoskinF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
107PHIHeikki RuohonenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
108BUFLuke OsburnD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
109WPGKevin HeF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
110BOSElliott GroenewoldD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
111PITChase PietilaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
112OTTJavon MooreF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
113STLTomas MrsicF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
114WSHNicholas KempfG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
115NYIDmitry GamzinG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
116SJSChristian KirschG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
117OTTBlake MontgomeryF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
118TBLJan GolicicD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
119NYRRaoul BoilardF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
120TORVictor JohanssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
121COLJake FisherF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
122MINAron KiviharjuD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
123BUFSimon-Pier BrunetD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
124CARAlexander SiryatskyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
125VANRiley PattersonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
126DETLandon MillerG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
127NSHViktor NorringerF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
128TBLHagen BurrowsF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
129FLASimon ZetherF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
130MTLTyler ThorpeF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
131SJSColton RobertsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
132COLLouka CloutierG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
133CAROskar VuolletF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
134MTLMikus VecvanagsG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
135UTAOwen AllardF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
136OTTEerik WalleniusD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
137COLIvan YuninG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
138CHIJoel SvenssonF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
139NJDMax GrahamF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
140MINSebastian SoiniD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
141SEAClarke CaswellF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
142MINChase WutzkeG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
143SJSNate MisskeyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
144DETJohn WhippleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
145STLWilliam McIsaacD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
146NJDVeeti LouhivaaraG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
147NYIMarcus GidlöfG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
148PHINoah PowellF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
149TBLJoona SaarelainenF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 3
150CGYLuke MisaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
151TORMiroslav HolinkaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
152TORAlexander PlesovskikhF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
153UTAAles CechD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
154BOSJonathan MorelloF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
155WPGMarkus LoponenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
156CARJustin PoirierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
157TORTimofei ObvintsevG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
158DALNiilopekka MuhonenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
159NYRNathan AspinallF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
160EDMConnor ClattenburgF510.00.0+0.00fairthru yr 3
161COLMaxmilian CurranF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
162VANAnthony RomaniF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
163CHITy HenryD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
164LAKJared WoolleyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
165CBJLuke AshtonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
166MTLBen MerrillF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
167UTAVojtech HradecF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
168CARTimur KolD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
169FLAStepan GorbunovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
170CGYHunter LaingF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
171NJDMatyas MelovskyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
172BUFPatrick GearyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
173PHIIlya PautovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
174MINStevie LeskovarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
175PITJoona VäisänenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
176DETCharlie ForslundF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
177CGYEric JamiesonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
178WSHPetr SikoraF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
179NYIXavier VeilleuxD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
180VGKTrent SwickF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
181TBLKaden PitreF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
182ANAAustin BurnevikF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
183EDMAlbin SundinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
184CARRoman ShokhrinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
185COLTory PitnerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
186BOSLoke JohanssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
187WPGKieron WaltonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
188CARFyodor AvramovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
189VANParker AlcosD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
190UTALudvig LaftonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
191NYRRico GredigF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
192EDMDalyn WakelyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
193FLAHunter St. MartinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
194SJSYaroslav KorostelyovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
195TBLJoe ConnorF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
196EDMWilliam NichollF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
197VGKLucas Van VlietF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
198LAKJames ReederF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
199TBLNoah SteenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
200TORMatt LaheyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
201FLADenis GabdrakhmanovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
202SEAJakub FibigrD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
203DETAustin BakerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
204BUFVasily ZelenovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
205PHIAustin MolineD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
206TBLHarrison MeneghinG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
207PITMac SwansonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
208DETFisher ScottD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
209STLAntoine DorionF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
210MTLMakar KhaninF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
211STLMatvei KorotkyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
212WSHMiroslav SatanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
213NSHErik PåhlssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
214ANADarels UljanskisD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
215COLChristian HumphreysF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
216TORSam McCueF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
217COLNikita PrishchepovF1000.00.0+0.00fairthru yr 3
218EDMBauer BerryD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
219BUFRyerson LeendersG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
220CARAndrey KrutovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
221VANBasile SansonnensD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
222DALWilliam SamuelssonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
223PITFinn HardingD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
224MTLRasmus BergqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3
225TORNathan MayesD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 3

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75