CHIRPAnalytics

NHL

draft pick value curve

i
expected career value by draft slot
0.02.95.88.712123510203264100150224overall pick (log scale)

— forwards · — defensemen · — goalies — each line is the average career value actually produced by that draft slot (2000–2026 drafts), through the selected number of post-draft years. The early-horizon gap between lines is the development timeline: forwards arrive first, defensemen later, goalies last. Axis capped at pick 224; drafts 2000–04 ran 9 rounds.

2025 draft class224 picks

i
#TeamPlayerPosGPPtsAEScore
1NYIMatthew SchaeferD90661.51.3+0.04fairthru yr 2
2SJSMichael MisaF53240.50.8-0.15fairthru yr 2
3CHIAnton FrondellF21150.40.7-0.17fairthru yr 2
4UTACaleb DesnoyersF000.00.5-0.34poor valuethru yr 2
5NSHBrady MartinF310.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 2
6PHIPorter MartoneF19130.30.3+0.03fairthru yr 2
7BOSJames HagensF1170.20.3-0.05fairthru yr 2
8SEAJake O'BrienF000.00.3-0.22fairthru yr 2
9BUFRadim MrtkaD000.00.3-0.21fairthru yr 2
10ANARoger McQueenF200.00.2-0.09fairthru yr 2
11PITBenjamin KindelF000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 2
12PHIJack NesbittF000.00.1-0.11fairthru yr 2
13DETCarter BearF000.00.1-0.10fairthru yr 2
14CBJJackson SmithD000.00.1-0.12fairthru yr 2
15VANBraeden CootesF300.00.1-0.07fairthru yr 2
16NYIVictor EklundF930.20.1+0.10fairthru yr 2
17NYIKashawn AitchesonD000.00.1-0.09fairthru yr 2
18CGYCole ReschnyF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
19STLJustin CarbonneauF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
20CBJPyotr AndreyanovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
21NSHCameron ReidD000.00.1-0.06fairthru yr 2
22PITBill ZonnonF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
23OTTLogan HenslerD000.00.1-0.05fairthru yr 2
24PITWilliam HorcoffF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
25CHIVaclav NestrasilF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
26NSHRyker LeeF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
27WSHLynden LakovicF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
28WPGSascha BoumedienneD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
29CHIMason WestF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
30SJSJoshua RavensbergenG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
31LAKHenry BrzustewiczD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
32CGYCullen PotterF000.00.0-0.04fairthru yr 2
33SJSSimon (Haoxi) WangD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
34MTLAlexander ZharovskyF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
35NSHJacob RombachD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
36SEABlake FiddlerD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
37WSHMilton GastrinF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
38PHICarter AmicoD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
39PITPeyton KettlesD000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
40PHIJack MurtaghF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
41CARSemyon FrolovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
42NYIDaniil ProkhorovF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
43NYRMalcolm SpenceF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
44DETEddie GenborgF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
45ANAEric NilsonF000.00.0-0.03fairthru yr 2
46UTAMax PsenickaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
47VANAlexei MedvedevG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
48PHIShane VansaghiF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
49CARCharlie CerratoF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
50NJDConrad FondrkF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
51BOSWilliam MooreF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
52MINTheodor HallquisthD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
53SJSCole McKinneyF000.00.0-0.02fairthru yr 2
54CGYTheo StockseliusF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
55VGKJakob Ihs WozniakF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
56TBLEthan CzataF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
57PHIMatthew GardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
58NSHJack IvankovicG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
59LAKVojtech CiharF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
60ANALasse BoeliusD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
61BOSLiam PetterssonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
62CARIvan RyabkinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
63NJDBen KevanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
64TORTinus Luc KoblarF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
65VANKieren DervinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
66CHINathan BehmF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
67CARKurban LimatovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
68SEAWill ReynoldsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
69MTLHayden PaupanekisF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
70NYRSean BarnhillD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
71BUFDavid BedkowskiD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
72ANANoah ReadF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
73PITCharlton TretheweyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
74NYILuca RomanoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
75DETMichal PradelG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
76CBJMalte VassD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
77COLFrancesco Dell'elceD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
78UTAStepan HochF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
79BOSCooper SimpsonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
80CGYMaceo PhillipsD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
81MTLBryce PickfordD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
82MTLArseni RadkovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
83EDMTommy LafreniereF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
84PITGabriel D'AigleG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
85VGKMateo NobertF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
86TORTyler HopkinsF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
87CARRoman BausovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
88LAKKristian EppersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
89NYRArtyom GoncharD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
90NJDMason MoeF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
91PITBrady PeddleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
92WPGOwen MartinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
93OTTBlake VanekF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
94DALCameron SchmidtF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
95SJSTeddy MutrynF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
96WSHMaxim SchaferF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
97OTTLucas BeckmanG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
98CHIJulius SumpfF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
99NJDTrenten BennettG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
100BOSVashek BlanarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
101ANADrew SchockD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
102MINAdam BenakF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
103BUFMatous KucharcikF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
104ANAElijah NeuenschwanderG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
105PITTravis HayesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
106NYITomas PoletinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
107CHIParker HolmesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
108TBLBenjamin RautiainenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
109DETBrent SolomonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
110UTAYegor BorikovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
111NYRMikkel EriksenF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
112FLAMads Kongsbak KlyvoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
113MTLJohn MooneyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
114NJDGustav HillstromF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
115SJSIlyas MagomedsultanovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
116BUFSamuel MelocheG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
117EDMDavid LewandowskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
118COLLinus FunckD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
119DETMichal SvrcekF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
120LAKCaeden HerringtonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
121MINLirim AmidovskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
122NSHAlex HuangD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
123MINCarter KlippensteinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
124SJSZachary SharpD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
125LAKJimmy LombardiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
126DALBrandon GorzynskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
127TBLAiden FosterF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
128FLAShea BuschF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
129FLAShamar MosesF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
130PITRyan MillerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
131EDMAsher BarnettD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
132PHIMax WestergardF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
133BOSCole ChandlerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
134SEAMaxim AgafonovD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
135BUFNoah LabergeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
136ANAAlexis MathieuD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
137TORWilliam BelleF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
138NYISam LaurilaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
139NYRZeb LindgrenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
140DETNikita TyurinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
141MINJustin KipkieD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
142UTAIvan Tkach-TkachenkoG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
143VANWilson BjorckF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
144CGYEthan WyttenbachF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
145MTLAlexis CournoyerG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
146DALAtte JokiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
147STLMikhail FyodorovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
148PITQuinn BeauchesneD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
149OTTDmitri IsayevF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
150SJSMax HeiseF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
151TBLEverett BaldwinD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
152LAKPetteri RimpinenG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
153TORHarry NansiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
154PITJordan CharronF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
155WSHJackson CrowderF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
156WPGViktor KlingsellF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
157PHILuke VlooswykD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
158DALMans GoosG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
159ANAEmile GuiteF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
160CBJOwen GriffinF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
161NJDDavid RozsivalF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
162CHIAshton CumbyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
163NSHDaniel NieminenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
164PHINathan QuinnF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
165BOSKirill YemelyanovF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
166NYRSamuel JungF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
167BUFAshton SchultzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
168ANAAnthony Allain-SamakeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
169PITCarter SandersonF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
170NYIBurke HoodG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
171NYREvan PassmoreD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
172DETWill MurphyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
173CBJVictor RaftheimD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
174UTALudvig JohnsonD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
175VANGabriel ChiarotF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
176CGYAiden LaneF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
177MTLCarlos HandelD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
178NJDSigge HolmgrenD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
179STLLove HarenstamG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
180WSHAron DahlqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
181OTTBruno IdzanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
182UTAReko AlankoD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
183CARViggo NordlundF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
184LAKJan ChovanF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
185TORRylan FellingerD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
186VGKAlexander WeiermairF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
187VGKGustav SjoqvistD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
188WPGEdison EngleD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
189MTLAndrew MacNielD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
190DALDawson SharkeyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
191EDMDaniel SalonenG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
192FLAArvid DrottF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
193TBLCaleb HeilG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
194CHIIlya KanarskyG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
195BUFMelvin NovotnyF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
196LAKBrendan McMorrowF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
197FLABrendan DunphyD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
198CBJJeremy LorangerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
199BUFYevgeni ProkhorovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
200ANABrady TurkoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
201PITKale DachF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
202NYIJacob KvasnickaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
203NYRFelix FarhammarD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
204DETGrayden Robertson-PalmerF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
205SEAKarl AnnbornD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
206TBLRoman LuttsevF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
207VANMatthew LansingF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
208CGYJakob LeanderD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
209MTLMaxon VigD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
210SJSRichard GallantF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
211CGYYan MatveikoF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
212TBLGrant SpadaD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
213OTTAndrei TrofimovG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
214COLNolan RoedF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
215TBLMarco MignosaF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
216LAKWilliam SharpeD000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
217TORMatthew HlacarF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
218SEALoke KrantzF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
219BUFRyan RucinskiF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
220WPGJacob CloutierF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
221CARFilip EkbergF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
222DALCharlie PaquetteF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
223EDMAidan ParkF000.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2
224FLAYegor MidlakG0—0.00.0-0.01fairthru yr 2

STEAL ≥ +0.50 · great value ≥ +0.25 · fair within ±0.25 · poor value ≤ −0.25 · BUST ≤ −0.50 — 0 means the pick produced exactly what its slot usually does; young picks are provisional ("thru yr N") and rescore each season

all-time steals (2000–2014 classes)

12004 · #262Mark StreitD · MTL+0.84
22003 · #245Dustin ByfuglienD · CHI+0.82
32007 · #129Jamie BennF · DAL+0.82
42002 · #241Dennis WidemanD · BUF+0.81
52012 · #130Connor HellebuyckG · WPG+0.80
62001 · #176Marek ZidlickyD · NYR+0.80
72003 · #205Joe PavelskiF · SJS+0.80
82011 · #104Johnny GaudreauF · CGY+0.80
92000 · #118Lubomir VisnovskyD · LAK+0.79
102011 · #208Ondrej PalatF · TBL+0.79
112003 · #239Toby EnstromD · ATL+0.79
122010 · #178Mark StoneF · OTT+0.79
132005 · #105Keith YandleD · PHX+0.78
142000 · #205Henrik LundqvistG · NYR+0.78
152013 · #206MacKenzie WeegarD · FLA+0.77
162008 · #156Jared SpurgeonD · NYI+0.77
172010 · #131John KlingbergD · DAL+0.77
182004 · #258Pekka RinneG · NSH+0.76
192005 · #230Patric HornqvistF · NSH+0.76
202000 · #159John-Michael LilesD · COL+0.76
212003 · #263Matt MoulsonF · PIT+0.76
222014 · #79Brayden PointF · TBL+0.76
232015 · #135Kirill KaprizovF · MIN+0.76
242005 · #216Anton StralmanD · TOR+0.76
252010 · #147Brendan GallagherF · MTL+0.75

all-time busts (2000–2014 classes)

12000 · #7Lars JonssonD · BOS-0.82
22012 · #4Griffin ReinhartD · NYI-0.81
32008 · #6Nikita FilatovF · CBJ-0.77
42002 · #15Jesse NiinimakiF · EDM-0.77
52005 · #16Alex BourretF · ATL-0.77
62005 · #13Marek ZagrapanF · BUF-0.77
72008 · #11Kyle BeachF · CHI-0.77
82000 · #15Artem KriukovF · BUF-0.77
92009 · #8Scott GlennieF · DAL-0.77
102003 · #12Hugh JessimanF · NYR-0.77
112002 · #9Petr TaticekF · FLA-0.77
122007 · #17Alexei CherepanovF · NYR-0.77
132004 · #11Lauri TukonenF · LAK-0.77
142000 · #17Alexei MikhnovF · EDM-0.77
152001 · #18Jens KarlssonF · LAK-0.76
162007 · #19Logan MacmillanF · ANA-0.76
172002 · #19Jakub KoreisF · PHX-0.76
182007 · #20Angelo EspositoF · PIT-0.76
192008 · #21Anton GustafssonF · WSH-0.76
202011 · #22Tyler BiggsF · TOR-0.76
212011 · #18Mark McNeillF · CHI-0.76
222013 · #22Emile PoirierF · CGY-0.75
232004 · #24Kris ChuckoF · CGY-0.75
242010 · #17Joey HishonF · COL-0.75
252000 · #23Nathan SmithF · VAN-0.75